LOPE
Grand Canyon Education, Inc. Consumer Defensive - Education & Training Services Investor Relations →
Grand Canyon Education, Inc. (LOPE) closed at $151.27 as of 2026-09-18, trading 2.3% above its 200-week moving average of $147.93. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 2.3% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 53, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.00 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 882 weeks of data, LOPE has crossed below its 200-week moving average 16 times. On average, these episodes lasted 13 weeks. Historically, investors who bought LOPE at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +15.4%.
With a market cap of $3.9 billion, LOPE is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 5.2%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 31.0%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 5.8x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 11.8% over the past three years. LOPE passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 17 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in LOPE would have grown to $933, compared to $993 for the S&P 500. LOPE has returned 14.0% annualized vs 14.5% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 8.8% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: LOPE vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After LOPE Crosses Below the Line?
Across 16 historical episodes, buying LOPE when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +15.4% after 12 months (median +1.0%), compared to +15.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 57% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +45.3% vs +30.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment LOPE crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices LOPE would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where LOPE's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-04.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $129.10 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $135.84 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $143.33 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $151.68 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $161.08 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | $1.67 | $1.81 | +8.2% |
| 2026-04-30 | $2.78 | $2.86 | +2.9% |
| 2026-02-18 | $3.20 | $3.21 | +0.5% |
| 2025-11-05 | $1.78 | $1.78 | — |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from LOPE's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
LOPE has crossed below its 200-week MA 16 times with an average 1-year return of +15.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2009 | Nov 2009 | 1 | 2.6% | +16.0% | +832.6% |
| Aug 2010 | Sep 2010 | 5 | 14.6% | -3.4% | +828.6% |
| Oct 2010 | Nov 2010 | 4 | 4.9% | -10.1% | +704.2% |
| Dec 2010 | Dec 2010 | 3 | 2.4% | -22.1% | +708.9% |
| Jan 2011 | Feb 2012 | 57 | 32.4% | -3.6% | +707.2% |
| Feb 2012 | May 2012 | 12 | 8.8% | +42.0% | +794.6% |
| Jul 2012 | Aug 2012 | 2 | 11.1% | +100.8% | +749.8% |
| Feb 2016 | Feb 2016 | 2 | 6.4% | +71.0% | +340.3% |
| Nov 2019 | Dec 2019 | 4 | 1.1% | -3.6% | +78.2% |
| Jan 2020 | May 2020 | 14 | 31.9% | +8.5% | +93.2% |
| Jun 2020 | Aug 2020 | 6 | 6.2% | +0.6% | +68.4% |
| Aug 2020 | Feb 2021 | 25 | 18.3% | -4.8% | +68.0% |
| May 2021 | Mar 2022 | 47 | 28.9% | N/A | +60.1% |
| Apr 2022 | Oct 2022 | 26 | 16.0% | +23.7% | +57.6% |
| Jun 2026 | Jun 2026 | 1 | 1.8% | N/A | +6.8% |
| Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | 5 | 4.0% | N/A | +7.7% |
| Average | 13 | — | +15.4% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is LOPE below its 200-week moving average?
No. Grand Canyon Education, Inc. (LOPE) is currently 2.3% above its 200-week moving average of $147.93. It would need to fall to $147.93 to cross below the line.
What is LOPE's 200-week moving average price?
Grand Canyon Education, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $147.93 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when LOPE drops below its 200-week moving average?
LOPE has crossed below its 200-week moving average 16 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +15.4%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 13 weeks on average.
Is LOPE a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about LOPE as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 53. Free cash flow yield is 5.2%. Return on equity is 31.0%. Price-to-book is 5.8x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does LOPE compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 17 years, $100 invested in LOPE would have grown to $933, compared to $993 for the S&P 500. That's 14.0% annualized vs 14.5% for the index. LOPE has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18