LOPE

Grand Canyon Education, Inc. Consumer Defensive - Education & Training Services Investor Relations →

NO
23.4% ABOVE
↓ Approaching Was 26.7% last week
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%+
Buy Threshold $137.57
14-Week RSI 38

Grand Canyon Education, Inc. (LOPE) closed at $169.72 as of 2026-02-02, trading 23.4% above its 200-week moving average of $137.57. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 26.7% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 38, indicating neutral momentum.

Over the past 850 weeks of data, LOPE has crossed below its 200-week moving average 14 times. On average, these episodes lasted 15 weeks. Historically, investors who bought LOPE at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +15.4%.

With a market cap of $4.8 billion, LOPE is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 4.2%. Return on equity stands at 27.8%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 6.2x book value.

The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 23.5% over the past three years. LOPE passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.

Over the past 16.4 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in LOPE would have grown to $1046, compared to $894 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 15.4% vs 14.3% for the index — confirming LOPE as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.

Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.

Growth of $100: LOPE vs S&P 500

Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.

What Happens After LOPE Crosses Below the Line?

Across 14 historical episodes, buying LOPE when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +15.4% after 12 months (median +1.0%), compared to +15.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 57% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +45.3% vs +30.5% for the index.

Each line shows $100 invested at the moment LOPE crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.

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Historical Touches

LOPE has crossed below its 200-week MA 14 times with an average 1-year return of +15.4% after recovery.

Crossed BelowRecoveredWeeksMax Depth1-Year ReturnReturn Since Touch
Oct 2009Nov 200912.6%+16.0%+946.4%
Aug 2010Sep 2010514.6%-3.4%+941.9%
Oct 2010Nov 201044.9%-10.1%+802.3%
Dec 2010Dec 201032.4%-22.1%+807.6%
Jan 2011Feb 20125732.4%-3.6%+805.7%
Feb 2012May 2012128.8%+42.0%+903.7%
Jul 2012Aug 2012211.1%+100.8%+853.5%
Feb 2016Feb 201626.4%+71.0%+393.9%
Nov 2019Dec 201941.1%-3.6%+99.9%
Jan 2020May 20201431.9%+8.5%+116.8%
Jun 2020Aug 202066.2%+0.6%+88.9%
Aug 2020Feb 20212518.3%-4.8%+88.5%
May 2021Mar 20224728.9%N/A+79.6%
Apr 2022Oct 20222616.0%+23.7%+76.8%
Average15+15.4%

Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02