LOCO
El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. Consumer Cyclical - Restaurants Investor Relations →
El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. (LOCO) closed at $14.15 as of 2026-03-20, trading 37.9% above its 200-week moving average of $10.26. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 24.3% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 66, indicating neutral momentum.
A big jump in activity this week — 3.0x the usual volume, and the price went up. Significantly more people than usual decided to buy. This kind of surge, especially on a stock already below its 200-week average, can be an early sign that sentiment is shifting.
Over the past 560 weeks of data, LOCO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 9 times. On average, these episodes lasted 42 weeks. Historically, investors who bought LOCO at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +3.7%.
With a market cap of $424 million, LOCO is a small-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 6.7%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 9.6%. The stock trades at 1.5x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 19.1% over the past three years. This stock also meets the Yartseva multibagger criteria as a small-cap with strong free cash flow yield and reasonable book value.
Over the past 10.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in LOCO would have grown to $80, compared to $379 for the S&P 500. LOCO has returned -2.0% annualized vs 13.1% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 10.9% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: LOCO vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After LOCO Crosses Below the Line?
Across 9 historical episodes, buying LOCO when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +11.5% after 12 months (median -2.0%), compared to +13.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 33% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +5.0% vs +38.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment LOCO crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
LOCO has crossed below its 200-week MA 9 times with an average 1-year return of +3.7% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2015 | Oct 2018 | 174 | 57.6% | -35.5% | -19.8% |
| Mar 2019 | Oct 2019 | 34 | 19.7% | -6.2% | +30.9% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 8 | 36.7% | +67.0% | +39.5% |
| Nov 2021 | Jul 2024 | 139 | 39.0% | -8.4% | +21.3% |
| Jan 2025 | Jan 2025 | 1 | 0.6% | +1.7% | +29.0% |
| Mar 2025 | Jun 2025 | 15 | 15.1% | +3.6% | +33.2% |
| Aug 2025 | Aug 2025 | 1 | 1.5% | N/A | +38.9% |
| Sep 2025 | Oct 2025 | 7 | 9.3% | N/A | +39.8% |
| Jan 2026 | Feb 2026 | 1 | 0.5% | N/A | +39.7% |
| Average | 42 | — | +3.7% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is LOCO below its 200-week moving average?
No. El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. (LOCO) is currently 37.9% above its 200-week moving average of $10.26. It would need to fall to $10.26 to cross below the line.
What is LOCO's 200-week moving average price?
El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $10.26 as of 2026-03-20. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when LOCO drops below its 200-week moving average?
LOCO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 9 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +3.7%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 42 weeks on average.
Is LOCO a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about LOCO as of 2026-03-20: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 66. Free cash flow yield is 6.7%. Return on equity is 9.6%. Price-to-book is 1.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does LOCO compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 10.8 years, $100 invested in LOCO would have grown to $80, compared to $379 for the S&P 500. That's -2.0% annualized vs 13.1% for the index. LOCO has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-03-20