LOCO
El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. Consumer Cyclical - Restaurants Investor Relations →
El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. (LOCO) closed at $10.94 as of 2026-02-02, trading 7.4% above its 200-week moving average of $10.19. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -0.5% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 56, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 554 weeks of data, LOCO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 9 times. On average, these episodes lasted 42 weeks. Historically, investors who bought LOCO at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +3.7%.
With a market cap of $328 million, LOCO is a small-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 6.6%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 9.6%. The stock trades at 1.2x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 18.5% over the past three years. This stock also meets the Yartseva multibagger criteria as a small-cap with strong free cash flow yield and reasonable book value.
Over the past 10.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in LOCO would have grown to $62, compared to $402 for the S&P 500. LOCO has returned -4.4% annualized vs 13.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Growth of $100: LOCO vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After LOCO Crosses Below the Line?
Across 8 historical episodes, buying LOCO when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +3.4% after 12 months (median -15.0%), compared to +12.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 20% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +5.0% vs +38.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment LOCO crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
LOCO has crossed below its 200-week MA 9 times with an average 1-year return of +3.7% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2015 | Oct 2018 | 174 | 57.6% | -35.5% | -38.0% |
| Mar 2019 | Oct 2019 | 34 | 19.7% | -6.2% | +1.2% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 8 | 36.7% | +67.0% | +7.9% |
| Nov 2021 | Jul 2024 | 139 | 39.0% | -8.4% | -6.2% |
| Jan 2025 | Jan 2025 | 1 | 0.6% | +1.7% | -0.3% |
| Mar 2025 | Jun 2025 | 15 | 15.1% | N/A | +3.0% |
| Aug 2025 | Aug 2025 | 1 | 1.5% | N/A | +7.4% |
| Sep 2025 | Oct 2025 | 7 | 9.3% | N/A | +8.1% |
| Jan 2026 | Ongoing | 2+ | 0.5% | Ongoing | +8.0% |
| Average | 42 | — | +3.7% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02