LNG
Cheniere Energy Inc. Energy - LNG Investor Relations →
Cheniere Energy Inc. (LNG) closed at $268.34 as of 2026-09-18, trading 37.9% above its 200-week moving average of $194.56. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 43.5% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 61, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.3x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.92 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1645 weeks of data, LNG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 12 times. On average, these episodes lasted 61 weeks. Historically, investors who bought LNG at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +2.2%.
With a market cap of $55.4 billion, LNG is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 1.3%. Return on equity stands at 39.1%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 9.0x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 13.5% over the past three years.
Over the past 31.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in LNG would have grown to $2564, compared to $2624 for the S&P 500. LNG has returned 10.8% annualized vs 10.9% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 1 open-market purchase totaling $1,041,096.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -34.3% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: LNG vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After LNG Crosses Below the Line?
Across 12 historical episodes, buying LNG when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +5.5% after 12 months (median +11.0%), compared to +16.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 50% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +25.8% vs +40.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment LNG crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices LNG would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where LNG's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-29.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $200.94 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $219.64 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $242.19 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $269.89 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $304.74 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | $3.15 | $3.02 | -4.3% |
| 2026-05-07 | $4.69 | $9.17 | +95.4% |
| 2026-02-26 | $3.87 | $2.59 | -33.0% |
| 2025-10-30 | $2.78 | $2.65 | -4.4% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from LNG's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
LNG has crossed below its 200-week MA 12 times with an average 1-year return of +2.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1995 | Jul 1995 | 17 | 22.1% | +16.7% | +3033.9% |
| Jan 1996 | Feb 1996 | 2 | 8.4% | -2.2% | +2464.1% |
| Mar 1996 | Jan 1997 | 46 | 82.7% | -15.8% | +2586.2% |
| Feb 1997 | Mar 1997 | 4 | 11.3% | -44.1% | +2831.9% |
| Mar 1997 | May 2003 | 320 | 87.1% | -40.1% | +2906.9% |
| Jan 2008 | May 2011 | 174 | 96.3% | -87.5% | +896.6% |
| Jun 2011 | Jun 2011 | 3 | 11.9% | +38.1% | +2999.4% |
| Aug 2011 | Oct 2011 | 12 | 30.8% | +75.7% | +3502.2% |
| Dec 2015 | Dec 2017 | 107 | 44.5% | +4.2% | +583.1% |
| Feb 2018 | Mar 2018 | 1 | 2.6% | +22.7% | +440.5% |
| Mar 2018 | Mar 2018 | 1 | 2.8% | +30.0% | +442.3% |
| Feb 2020 | Nov 2020 | 40 | 40.8% | +28.7% | +425.3% |
| Average | 61 | — | +2.2% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is LNG below its 200-week moving average?
No. Cheniere Energy Inc. (LNG) is currently 37.9% above its 200-week moving average of $194.56. It would need to fall to $194.56 to cross below the line.
What is LNG's 200-week moving average price?
Cheniere Energy Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $194.56 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when LNG drops below its 200-week moving average?
LNG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 12 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +2.2%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 61 weeks on average.
Is LNG a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about LNG as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 61. Free cash flow yield is 1.3%. Return on equity is 39.1%. Price-to-book is 9.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does LNG compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 31.6 years, $100 invested in LNG would have grown to $2564, compared to $2624 for the S&P 500. That's 10.8% annualized vs 10.9% for the index. LNG has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does LNG pay a dividend?
Yes. Cheniere Energy Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 83.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18