LLY
Eli Lilly and Company Healthcare - Pharmaceuticals Investor Relations →
Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) closed at $1098.57 as of 2026-06-19, trading 57.5% above its 200-week moving average of $697.62. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 63.3% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 61, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.98 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2772 weeks of data, LLY has crossed below its 200-week moving average 24 times. On average, these episodes lasted 33 weeks. Historically, investors who bought LLY at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +0.2%.
With a market cap of $979.6 billion, LLY is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 0.9%. Return on equity stands at 107.5%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 31.5x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 5.8% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in LLY would have grown to $18903, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 16.9% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming LLY as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 9% compound annual rate, with 2 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: LLY vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After LLY Crosses Below the Line?
Across 12 historical episodes, buying LLY when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -4.8% after 12 months (median -9.0%), compared to -0.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 25% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was -4.6% vs +2.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment LLY crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices LLY would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where LLY's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-05.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $816.31 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $870.98 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $933.50 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $1005.68 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $1089.97 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from LLY's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
LLY has crossed below its 200-week MA 24 times with an average 1-year return of +0.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1973 | Sep 1973 | 5 | 8.2% | -22.1% | +100972.0% |
| Oct 1973 | Oct 1973 | 1 | 0.8% | -24.8% | +101863.8% |
| Nov 1973 | Jun 1974 | 27 | 21.2% | -8.1% | +101609.5% |
| Jul 1974 | Feb 1975 | 33 | 23.9% | +7.1% | +104669.1% |
| Mar 1975 | May 1975 | 7 | 8.9% | -23.2% | +107651.4% |
| Jul 1975 | Jul 1978 | 158 | 39.3% | -25.2% | +105403.6% |
| Sep 1978 | Sep 1978 | 1 | 0.1% | +28.8% | +146339.1% |
| Oct 1978 | Dec 1978 | 9 | 11.0% | +24.0% | +155747.2% |
| Sep 1981 | Sep 1981 | 1 | 5.1% | +21.4% | +132990.2% |
| Oct 1981 | Oct 1981 | 1 | 2.7% | +24.4% | +129177.8% |
| Aug 1982 | Aug 1982 | 3 | 9.7% | +39.0% | +129061.8% |
| Jul 1984 | Jul 1984 | 2 | 1.5% | +71.3% | +101401.8% |
| Sep 1992 | Oct 1994 | 107 | 32.2% | -17.6% | +16870.1% |
| Feb 2000 | Mar 2000 | 3 | 4.2% | +26.0% | +3672.5% |
| Jan 2002 | Feb 2002 | 4 | 2.2% | -10.1% | +2789.8% |
| Apr 2002 | Nov 2003 | 84 | 35.8% | -17.0% | +2748.9% |
| Nov 2003 | Dec 2003 | 2 | 0.3% | -18.7% | +2908.2% |
| Jan 2004 | Feb 2004 | 4 | 2.6% | -14.9% | +2962.5% |
| Mar 2004 | Apr 2004 | 4 | 6.2% | -21.6% | +2901.3% |
| Jul 2004 | Oct 2006 | 117 | 22.1% | -13.9% | +2959.5% |
| Oct 2006 | Apr 2007 | 24 | 9.4% | -4.8% | +3278.1% |
| Jul 2007 | Aug 2007 | 2 | 2.8% | -10.1% | +3323.5% |
| Oct 2007 | Apr 2011 | 182 | 41.3% | -37.5% | +3449.0% |
| Aug 2011 | Aug 2011 | 1 | 0.5% | +31.7% | +4345.1% |
| Average | 33 | — | +0.2% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is LLY below its 200-week moving average?
No. Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) is currently 57.5% above its 200-week moving average of $697.62. It would need to fall to $697.62 to cross below the line.
What is LLY's 200-week moving average price?
Eli Lilly and Company's 200-week moving average is $697.62 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when LLY drops below its 200-week moving average?
LLY has crossed below its 200-week moving average 24 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +0.2%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 33 weeks on average.
Is LLY a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about LLY as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 61. Free cash flow yield is 0.9%. Return on equity is 107.5%. Price-to-book is 31.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does LLY compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in LLY would have grown to $18903, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 16.9% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. LLY has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19