LLY
Eli Lilly and Company Healthcare - Pharmaceuticals Investor Relations →
Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) closed at $1152.93 as of 2026-09-18, trading 53.2% above its 200-week moving average of $752.52. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 49.1% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 52, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.2x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.33 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2785 weeks of data, LLY has crossed below its 200-week moving average 23 times. On average, these episodes lasted 34 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -0.9%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $1.0 trillion, LLY is a mega-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 1.1%. Return on equity stands at 102.3%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 30.3x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 5.8% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in LLY would have grown to $19866, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 17.0% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming LLY as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 9% compound annual rate, with 2 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: LLY vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After LLY Crosses Below the Line?
Across 11 historical episodes, buying LLY when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -7.8% after 12 months (median -10.0%), compared to -2.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 18% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was -10.5% vs -1.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment LLY crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices LLY would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where LLY's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-29.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $1050.95 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $1146.25 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $1260.57 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $1400.20 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $1574.63 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | $6.58 | $8.38 | +27.3% |
| 2026-04-30 | $6.79 | $8.55 | +25.9% |
| 2026-02-04 | $6.91 | $7.54 | +9.1% |
| 2025-10-30 | $5.89 | $7.02 | +19.1% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from LLY's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
LLY has crossed below its 200-week MA 23 times with an average 1-year return of +-0.9% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1973 | Sep 1973 | 3 | 8.2% | -16.0% | +108825.1% |
| Oct 1973 | Oct 1973 | 1 | 0.9% | -24.8% | +107062.5% |
| Nov 1973 | Jun 1974 | 27 | 21.2% | -8.1% | +106795.2% |
| Jul 1974 | Feb 1975 | 33 | 23.9% | +7.1% | +110011.0% |
| Mar 1975 | May 1975 | 7 | 8.9% | -23.2% | +113145.3% |
| Jul 1975 | Jul 1978 | 158 | 39.4% | -25.2% | +110782.9% |
| Sep 1978 | Sep 1978 | 1 | 0.1% | +28.8% | +153805.5% |
| Oct 1978 | Dec 1978 | 9 | 11.1% | +24.0% | +163693.4% |
| Sep 1981 | Sep 1981 | 1 | 5.1% | +21.4% | +139775.9% |
| Oct 1981 | Oct 1981 | 1 | 2.8% | +24.4% | +135769.1% |
| Aug 1982 | Aug 1982 | 3 | 9.8% | +39.0% | +135647.3% |
| Jul 1984 | Jul 1984 | 2 | 1.6% | +71.3% | +106577.1% |
| Sep 1992 | Oct 1994 | 107 | 31.3% | -17.6% | +17735.3% |
| Feb 2000 | Mar 2000 | 3 | 4.3% | +26.4% | +3864.8% |
| Jan 2002 | Feb 2002 | 4 | 2.2% | -10.1% | +2937.1% |
| Apr 2002 | Nov 2003 | 84 | 35.8% | -17.0% | +2894.2% |
| Nov 2003 | Dec 2003 | 2 | 0.3% | -18.7% | +3061.6% |
| Jan 2004 | Feb 2004 | 4 | 2.6% | -14.9% | +3118.6% |
| Mar 2004 | Apr 2004 | 4 | 6.2% | -21.6% | +3054.3% |
| Jul 2004 | Oct 2006 | 117 | 22.1% | -13.9% | +3115.5% |
| Oct 2006 | Apr 2007 | 24 | 9.4% | -4.8% | +3450.3% |
| Jul 2007 | Aug 2007 | 2 | 2.9% | -10.1% | +3498.1% |
| Oct 2007 | Apr 2011 | 183 | 41.4% | -37.5% | +3629.9% |
| Average | 34 | — | +-0.9% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is LLY below its 200-week moving average?
No. Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) is currently 53.2% above its 200-week moving average of $752.52. It would need to fall to $752.52 to cross below the line.
What is LLY's 200-week moving average price?
Eli Lilly and Company's 200-week moving average is $752.52 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when LLY drops below its 200-week moving average?
LLY has crossed below its 200-week moving average 23 times in our data. The average one-year return after these crossings was -0.9%, meaning the dips were not reliable buying signals for this particular stock. These episodes lasted 34 weeks on average.
Is LLY a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about LLY as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 52. Free cash flow yield is 1.1%. Return on equity is 102.3%. Price-to-book is 30.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does LLY compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in LLY would have grown to $19866, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That's 17.0% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. LLY has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does LLY pay a dividend?
Yes. Eli Lilly and Company currently pays a dividend yield of 60.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18