LLY
Eli Lilly and Company Healthcare - Pharmaceuticals Investor Relations →
Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) closed at $1058.18 as of 2026-02-02, trading 67.1% above its 200-week moving average of $633.30. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 64.8% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 71, LLY is in overbought territory.
Over the past 2753 weeks of data, LLY has crossed below its 200-week moving average 24 times. On average, these episodes lasted 33 weeks. Historically, investors who bought LLY at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +0.2%.
With a market cap of $948.6 billion, LLY is a large-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 108.3%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 39.8x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 5.9% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in LLY would have grown to $18146, compared to $2849 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 17.0% vs 10.6% for the index — confirming LLY as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 8 open-market purchases totaling $4,537,301. Multiple insiders purchased within a 30-day window — a cluster buy pattern that historically signals management confidence in the company's prospects.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -57.5% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Growth of $100: LLY vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After LLY Crosses Below the Line?
Across 12 historical episodes, buying LLY when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -4.8% after 12 months (median -9.0%), compared to -0.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 25% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was -4.6% vs +2.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment LLY crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
LLY has crossed below its 200-week MA 24 times with an average 1-year return of +0.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1973 | Sep 1973 | 5 | 8.2% | -22.1% | +96926.8% |
| Oct 1973 | Oct 1973 | 1 | 0.8% | -24.8% | +97782.9% |
| Nov 1973 | Jun 1974 | 27 | 21.2% | -8.1% | +97538.8% |
| Jul 1974 | Feb 1975 | 33 | 23.9% | +7.1% | +100475.9% |
| Mar 1975 | May 1975 | 7 | 8.9% | -23.2% | +103338.8% |
| Jul 1975 | Jul 1978 | 158 | 39.3% | -25.2% | +101181.0% |
| Sep 1978 | Sep 1978 | 1 | 0.1% | +28.8% | +140478.2% |
| Oct 1978 | Dec 1978 | 9 | 11.0% | +24.0% | +149509.8% |
| Sep 1981 | Sep 1981 | 1 | 5.1% | +21.4% | +127663.5% |
| Oct 1981 | Oct 1981 | 1 | 2.7% | +24.4% | +124003.6% |
| Aug 1982 | Aug 1982 | 3 | 9.7% | +39.0% | +123892.4% |
| Jul 1984 | Jul 1984 | 2 | 1.5% | +71.3% | +97339.4% |
| Sep 1992 | Oct 1994 | 107 | 32.2% | -17.6% | +16190.9% |
| Feb 2000 | Mar 2000 | 3 | 4.2% | +26.0% | +3521.5% |
| Jan 2002 | Feb 2002 | 4 | 2.2% | -10.1% | +2674.1% |
| Apr 2002 | Nov 2003 | 84 | 35.8% | -17.0% | +2634.9% |
| Nov 2003 | Dec 2003 | 2 | 0.3% | -18.7% | +2787.8% |
| Jan 2004 | Feb 2004 | 4 | 2.6% | -14.9% | +2839.9% |
| Mar 2004 | Apr 2004 | 4 | 6.2% | -21.6% | +2781.1% |
| Jul 2004 | Oct 2006 | 117 | 22.1% | -13.9% | +2837.1% |
| Oct 2006 | Apr 2007 | 24 | 9.4% | -4.8% | +3142.9% |
| Jul 2007 | Aug 2007 | 2 | 2.8% | -10.1% | +3186.5% |
| Oct 2007 | Apr 2011 | 182 | 41.3% | -37.5% | +3306.9% |
| Aug 2011 | Aug 2011 | 1 | 0.5% | +31.7% | +4167.2% |
| Average | 33 | — | +0.2% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02