LKQ
LKQ Corporation Consumer Cyclical - Auto Parts Investor Relations →
LKQ Corporation (LKQ) closed at $34.58 as of 2026-02-02, trading 18.7% below its 200-week moving average of $42.55. This places LKQ in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -22.9% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 60, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 1117 weeks of data, LKQ has crossed below its 200-week moving average 12 times. On average, these episodes lasted 19 weeks. Historically, investors who bought LKQ at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +40.8%.
With a market cap of $8.9 billion, LKQ is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.2%. Return on equity stands at 10.9%. The stock trades at 1.4x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 9.7% over the past three years.
Over the past 21.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in LKQ would have grown to $1626, compared to $922 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 13.9% vs 10.9% for the index — confirming LKQ as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -9% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Growth of $100: LKQ vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After LKQ Crosses Below the Line?
Across 12 historical episodes, buying LKQ when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +37.8% after 12 months (median +33.0%), compared to +17.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 67% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +58.0% vs +30.6% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment LKQ crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
LKQ has crossed below its 200-week MA 12 times with an average 1-year return of +40.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2004 | Sep 2004 | 1 | 0.5% | +67.1% | +1641.0% |
| Oct 2004 | Nov 2004 | 7 | 20.9% | +72.1% | +1639.0% |
| Jan 2005 | Feb 2005 | 5 | 6.1% | +122.9% | +1707.4% |
| Oct 2008 | Mar 2009 | 20 | 27.3% | +53.4% | +536.7% |
| Feb 2016 | Feb 2016 | 2 | 3.8% | +26.7% | +52.7% |
| Mar 2017 | Apr 2017 | 5 | 5.5% | +26.5% | +31.1% |
| Apr 2018 | May 2018 | 4 | 4.4% | -4.4% | +27.8% |
| Sep 2018 | Oct 2019 | 57 | 26.5% | -1.1% | +21.6% |
| Feb 2020 | Aug 2020 | 26 | 49.4% | +33.2% | +30.2% |
| Sep 2020 | Oct 2020 | 4 | 13.4% | +64.1% | +24.1% |
| Oct 2023 | Oct 2023 | 1 | 1.9% | -11.4% | -15.0% |
| Apr 2024 | Ongoing | 94+ | 35.5% | Ongoing | -16.2% |
| Average | 19 | — | +40.8% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02