LKFN
Lakeland Financial Corporation Financial Services - Banks - Regional Investor Relations →
Lakeland Financial Corporation (LKFN) closed at $59.70 as of 2026-09-18, trading 3.0% above its 200-week moving average of $57.93. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 4.5% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 46, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.9x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.91 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1470 weeks of data, LKFN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 28 times. On average, these episodes lasted 13 weeks. Historically, investors who bought LKFN at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +10.4%.
With a market cap of $1484 million, LKFN is a small-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 15.0%, a solid level. The stock trades at 1.9x book value.
Over the past 28.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in LKFN would have grown to $1777, compared to $1109 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 10.7% vs 8.9% for the index — confirming LKFN as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -14.2% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: LKFN vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After LKFN Crosses Below the Line?
Across 28 historical episodes, buying LKFN when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +12.5% after 12 months (median +5.0%), compared to +5.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 56% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +26.0% vs +18.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment LKFN crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices LKFN would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where LKFN's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-26.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $58.56 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $60.78 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $63.18 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $65.78 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $68.61 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | $1.08 | $1.13 | +5.1% |
| 2026-04-27 | $1.01 | $1.04 | +2.7% |
| 2026-01-26 | $1.06 | $1.16 | +9.8% |
| 2025-10-27 | $1.04 | $1.03 | -1.1% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from LKFN's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
LKFN has crossed below its 200-week MA 28 times with an average 1-year return of +10.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 1998 | Aug 2001 | 161 | 41.6% | -21.8% | +1577.9% |
| Sep 2001 | Oct 2001 | 3 | 3.7% | +56.8% | +2101.1% |
| Nov 2001 | Nov 2001 | 3 | 1.4% | +59.0% | +2072.2% |
| Nov 2007 | Dec 2007 | 4 | 5.2% | +10.6% | +636.2% |
| Dec 2007 | Jan 2008 | 4 | 7.8% | +26.4% | +684.6% |
| Mar 2008 | Mar 2008 | 1 | 0.4% | -23.0% | +624.7% |
| Jun 2008 | Jul 2008 | 2 | 4.9% | -1.2% | +634.8% |
| Jul 2008 | Aug 2008 | 2 | 1.6% | -2.4% | +594.0% |
| Aug 2008 | Sep 2008 | 1 | 2.1% | +2.6% | +605.2% |
| Oct 2008 | Oct 2008 | 2 | 8.2% | +6.1% | +608.0% |
| Nov 2008 | Nov 2008 | 1 | 8.6% | -9.3% | +648.6% |
| Jan 2009 | Sep 2009 | 34 | 28.2% | -9.6% | +623.3% |
| Sep 2009 | Oct 2009 | 1 | 3.1% | -4.3% | +592.5% |
| Oct 2009 | Apr 2010 | 24 | 18.8% | -4.6% | +571.8% |
| May 2010 | Jun 2010 | 1 | 0.4% | +10.7% | +581.3% |
| Jul 2010 | Jul 2010 | 1 | 3.5% | +26.1% | +604.6% |
| Aug 2010 | Nov 2010 | 12 | 6.6% | +11.0% | +599.1% |
| Feb 2020 | Jun 2020 | 16 | 23.9% | +73.3% | +75.5% |
| Sep 2020 | Oct 2020 | 3 | 7.1% | +54.5% | +65.3% |
| Apr 2023 | Dec 2023 | 34 | 25.0% | +5.3% | +16.5% |
| Apr 2024 | Apr 2024 | 3 | 3.9% | -9.0% | +10.6% |
| Jun 2024 | Jul 2024 | 4 | 5.1% | +1.3% | +7.1% |
| Aug 2024 | Aug 2024 | 1 | 0.3% | +1.9% | +3.5% |
| Mar 2025 | Jun 2025 | 17 | 17.7% | -5.6% | +0.8% |
| Jul 2025 | Aug 2025 | 2 | 1.8% | +5.2% | +0.3% |
| Oct 2025 | Feb 2026 | 17 | 6.7% | N/A | +1.2% |
| Feb 2026 | Apr 2026 | 6 | 7.2% | N/A | +4.6% |
| May 2026 | May 2026 | 1 | 3.0% | N/A | +5.2% |
| Average | 13 | — | +10.4% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is LKFN below its 200-week moving average?
No. Lakeland Financial Corporation (LKFN) is currently 3.0% above its 200-week moving average of $57.93. It would need to fall to $57.93 to cross below the line.
What is LKFN's 200-week moving average price?
Lakeland Financial Corporation's 200-week moving average is $57.93 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when LKFN drops below its 200-week moving average?
LKFN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 28 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +10.4%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 13 weeks on average.
Is LKFN a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about LKFN as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 46. Return on equity is 15.0%. Price-to-book is 1.9x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does LKFN compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 28.2 years, $100 invested in LKFN would have grown to $1777, compared to $1109 for the S&P 500. That's 10.7% annualized vs 8.9% for the index. LKFN has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does LKFN pay a dividend?
Yes. Lakeland Financial Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 349.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18