LITE
Lumentum Holdings Inc. Technology - Communication Equipment Investor Relations →
Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) closed at $706.35 as of 2026-03-20, trading 572.8% above its 200-week moving average of $104.99. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 510.9% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 74, LITE is in overbought territory.
A big jump in activity this week — 2.7x the usual volume, and the price went up. Significantly more people than usual decided to buy. This kind of surge, especially on a stock already below its 200-week average, can be an early sign that sentiment is shifting.
Over the past 508 weeks of data, LITE has crossed below its 200-week moving average 5 times. On average, these episodes lasted 26 weeks. Historically, investors who bought LITE at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +203.3%.
With a market cap of $50.4 billion, LITE is a large-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 29.3%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 59.6x book value.
Share count has increased 2.6% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 9.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in LITE would have grown to $2987, compared to $364 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 41.3% vs 14.1% for the index — confirming LITE as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -100% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: LITE vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After LITE Crosses Below the Line?
Across 5 historical episodes, buying LITE when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +298.8% after 12 months (median +66.0%), compared to +15.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 80% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +70.8% vs +50.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment LITE crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
LITE has crossed below its 200-week MA 5 times with an average 1-year return of +203.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2018 | Jan 2019 | 8 | 11.2% | +65.9% | +1601.2% |
| Feb 2019 | Feb 2019 | 1 | 1.3% | +106.2% | +1568.7% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 1 | 7.9% | +81.2% | +1645.4% |
| Sep 2022 | Nov 2024 | 112 | 52.8% | -35.7% | +841.9% |
| Mar 2025 | May 2025 | 10 | 26.6% | +799.1% | +1037.3% |
| Average | 26 | — | +203.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is LITE below its 200-week moving average?
No. Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) is currently 572.8% above its 200-week moving average of $104.99. It would need to fall to $104.99 to cross below the line.
What is LITE's 200-week moving average price?
Lumentum Holdings Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $104.99 as of 2026-03-20. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when LITE drops below its 200-week moving average?
LITE has crossed below its 200-week moving average 5 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +203.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 26 weeks on average.
Is LITE a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about LITE as of 2026-03-20: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 74 (overbought). Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is 29.3%. Price-to-book is 59.6x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does LITE compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 9.8 years, $100 invested in LITE would have grown to $2987, compared to $364 for the S&P 500. That's 41.3% annualized vs 14.1% for the index. LITE has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-03-20