LITE
Lumentum Holdings Inc. Technology - Communication Equipment Investor Relations →
Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) closed at $551.99 as of 2026-02-02, trading 523.8% above its 200-week moving average of $88.49. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 354.7% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 84, LITE is in overbought territory.
Over the past 502 weeks of data, LITE has crossed below its 200-week moving average 5 times. On average, these episodes lasted 26 weeks. Historically, investors who bought LITE at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +54.4%.
With a market cap of $39.4 billion, LITE is a large-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 29.3%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 46.5x book value.
Share count has increased 2.6% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 9.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in LITE would have grown to $2334, compared to $387 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 38.1% vs 14.9% for the index — confirming LITE as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -100% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Growth of $100: LITE vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After LITE Crosses Below the Line?
Across 5 historical episodes, buying LITE when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +42.2% after 12 months (median +66.0%), compared to +14.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 75% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +70.8% vs +50.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment LITE crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
LITE has crossed below its 200-week MA 5 times with an average 1-year return of +54.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2018 | Jan 2019 | 8 | 11.2% | +65.9% | +1229.5% |
| Feb 2019 | Feb 2019 | 1 | 1.3% | +106.2% | +1204.0% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 1 | 7.9% | +81.2% | +1263.9% |
| Sep 2022 | Nov 2024 | 112 | 52.8% | -35.7% | +636.1% |
| Mar 2025 | May 2025 | 10 | 26.6% | N/A | +788.7% |
| Average | 26 | — | +54.4% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02