LGND
Ligand Pharmaceuticals Inc. Healthcare - Biotechnology Investor Relations →
Ligand Pharmaceuticals Inc. (LGND) closed at $274.88 as of 2026-06-19, trading 148.8% above its 200-week moving average of $110.50. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 133.5% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 78, LGND is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.7x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.11 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1704 weeks of data, LGND has crossed below its 200-week moving average 32 times. On average, these episodes lasted 25 weeks. Historically, investors who bought LGND at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +11.4%.
With a market cap of $5.5 billion, LGND is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.6%. Return on equity stands at 17.1%, a solid level. The stock trades at 5.5x book value.
Share count has increased 16.7% over three years, indicating dilution. LGND passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 32.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in LGND would have grown to $800, compared to $2853 for the S&P 500. LGND has returned 6.6% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -31.8% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: LGND vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After LGND Crosses Below the Line?
Across 32 historical episodes, buying LGND when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +10.8% after 12 months (median +7.0%), compared to +11.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 50% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +43.6% vs +20.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment LGND crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices LGND would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where LGND's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-06.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $187.99 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $198.67 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $210.63 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $224.13 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $239.47 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from LGND's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
LGND has crossed below its 200-week MA 32 times with an average 1-year return of +11.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1993 | Nov 1993 | 1 | 1.6% | +22.5% | +879.5% |
| Jul 1994 | Aug 1994 | 1 | 3.0% | -18.6% | +811.2% |
| Oct 1994 | Dec 1995 | 60 | 45.1% | -26.7% | +811.2% |
| Mar 1997 | May 1997 | 7 | 14.1% | +48.8% | +832.9% |
| Jan 1998 | Feb 1998 | 1 | 4.3% | +17.0% | +790.5% |
| Jul 1998 | Jan 1999 | 27 | 48.4% | -9.4% | +770.7% |
| Feb 1999 | Dec 1999 | 45 | 44.3% | +118.0% | +811.2% |
| May 2000 | Jun 2000 | 2 | 20.0% | +32.3% | +895.1% |
| Jul 2000 | Aug 2000 | 7 | 18.2% | -20.2% | +703.7% |
| Jan 2001 | Jan 2001 | 1 | 0.9% | +44.7% | +707.8% |
| Feb 2001 | Apr 2001 | 10 | 28.2% | +25.8% | +775.5% |
| Jun 2001 | Oct 2001 | 18 | 33.9% | +18.7% | +732.2% |
| Jul 2002 | May 2003 | 47 | 67.2% | +34.7% | +857.5% |
| Aug 2003 | Aug 2003 | 1 | 3.0% | -30.0% | +751.7% |
| Oct 2003 | Oct 2003 | 2 | 3.6% | -22.7% | +716.9% |
| Nov 2003 | Nov 2003 | 1 | 1.6% | -11.1% | +728.7% |
| Aug 2004 | Dec 2005 | 72 | 58.5% | -6.1% | +1116.8% |
| May 2006 | May 2006 | 2 | 7.6% | -11.5% | +889.4% |
| Jun 2006 | Jan 2007 | 32 | 25.8% | -7.6% | +889.4% |
| Feb 2007 | Sep 2011 | 236 | 78.0% | -60.0% | +766.1% |
| Sep 2011 | Oct 2011 | 5 | 8.0% | +29.7% | +3011.8% |
| Nov 2011 | Jan 2012 | 12 | 20.5% | +37.8% | +3541.6% |
| Apr 2012 | Jun 2012 | 5 | 8.5% | +120.3% | +3602.8% |
| Jan 2019 | Jan 2021 | 105 | 49.5% | -23.3% | +273.7% |
| May 2021 | Aug 2021 | 17 | 21.9% | -32.3% | +237.3% |
| Oct 2021 | Oct 2021 | 2 | 4.1% | -26.3% | +244.9% |
| Jan 2022 | Nov 2022 | 43 | 36.6% | -8.5% | +252.8% |
| Dec 2022 | Jan 2023 | 5 | 10.6% | -2.5% | +333.4% |
| Mar 2023 | Mar 2023 | 3 | 1.9% | +7.9% | +301.9% |
| Jul 2023 | Dec 2023 | 24 | 29.3% | +21.1% | +294.7% |
| Mar 2024 | Mar 2024 | 2 | 0.4% | +49.4% | +286.7% |
| Apr 2024 | Apr 2024 | 1 | 1.2% | +53.1% | +289.5% |
| Average | 25 | — | +11.4% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is LGND below its 200-week moving average?
No. Ligand Pharmaceuticals Inc. (LGND) is currently 148.8% above its 200-week moving average of $110.50. It would need to fall to $110.50 to cross below the line.
What is LGND's 200-week moving average price?
Ligand Pharmaceuticals Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $110.50 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when LGND drops below its 200-week moving average?
LGND has crossed below its 200-week moving average 32 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +11.4%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 25 weeks on average.
Is LGND a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about LGND as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 78 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 2.6%. Return on equity is 17.1%. Price-to-book is 5.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does LGND compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 32.8 years, $100 invested in LGND would have grown to $800, compared to $2853 for the S&P 500. That's 6.6% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. LGND has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19