LGIH
LGI Homes, Inc. Consumer Cyclical - Residential Construction Investor Relations →
LGI Homes, Inc. (LGIH) closed at $59.12 as of 2026-02-02, trading 36.3% below its 200-week moving average of $92.87. This places LGIH in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -46.1% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 70, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 591 weeks of data, LGIH has crossed below its 200-week moving average 9 times. On average, these episodes lasted 19 weeks. Historically, investors who bought LGIH at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +48.3%.
With a market cap of $1364 million, LGIH is a small-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 5.2%. The stock trades at 0.7x book value.
Over the past 11.4 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in LGIH would have grown to $304, compared to $415 for the S&P 500. LGIH has returned 10.2% annualized vs 13.3% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -100% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Growth of $100: LGIH vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After LGIH Crosses Below the Line?
Across 9 historical episodes, buying LGIH when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +54.7% after 12 months (median +25.0%), compared to +20.9% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 78% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +14.2% vs +43.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment LGIH crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
LGIH has crossed below its 200-week MA 9 times with an average 1-year return of +48.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2014 | Mar 2015 | 19 | 24.1% | +93.5% | +264.3% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 6 | 36.7% | +226.3% | +36.3% |
| Apr 2022 | May 2022 | 4 | 7.1% | +19.2% | -34.5% |
| May 2022 | Jul 2022 | 9 | 24.7% | +25.8% | -38.9% |
| Aug 2022 | Jan 2023 | 20 | 23.7% | +20.0% | -38.8% |
| Feb 2023 | Mar 2023 | 4 | 6.9% | +7.8% | -43.8% |
| Apr 2023 | Apr 2023 | 1 | 0.2% | -8.2% | -45.1% |
| Sep 2023 | Nov 2023 | 9 | 23.1% | +1.7% | -47.5% |
| Feb 2024 | Ongoing | 103+ | 58.2% | Ongoing | -47.9% |
| Average | 19 | — | +48.3% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02