LEN
Lennar Corporation Consumer Discretionary - Homebuilders Investor Relations →
Lennar Corporation (LEN) closed at $82.35 as of 2026-07-31, trading 29.9% below its 200-week moving average of $117.45. This places LEN in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -27.9% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 35, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.2x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.94 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2371 weeks of data, LEN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 32 times. On average, these episodes lasted 20 weeks. Historically, investors who bought LEN at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +29.6%.
With a market cap of $19.8 billion, LEN is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 5.4%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 7.4%. The stock trades at 0.9x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 14.8% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in LEN would have grown to $3224, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 10.9% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming LEN as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -79.4% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: LEN vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After LEN Crosses Below the Line?
Across 21 historical episodes, buying LEN when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +45.8% after 12 months (median +43.0%), compared to +16.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 79% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +61.6% vs +25.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment LEN crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices LEN would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where LEN's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-05-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $89.14 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $90.39 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $91.68 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $93.01 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $94.37 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from LEN's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
LEN has crossed below its 200-week MA 32 times with an average 1-year return of +29.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 1981 | Sep 1982 | 61 | 37.8% | -33.6% | +12458.8% |
| Oct 1983 | Oct 1983 | 1 | 5.5% | -26.7% | +12746.4% |
| Dec 1983 | Jan 1984 | 4 | 7.8% | -25.4% | +12458.8% |
| Jan 1984 | Feb 1986 | 108 | 43.4% | -11.0% | +12274.1% |
| Jul 1986 | Sep 1986 | 9 | 13.0% | +40.8% | +12649.1% |
| Oct 1986 | Nov 1986 | 4 | 3.3% | +41.9% | +13151.0% |
| Oct 1987 | Dec 1987 | 8 | 11.5% | +20.5% | +13597.2% |
| Jan 1988 | Jan 1988 | 1 | 2.8% | +20.2% | +12801.2% |
| May 1988 | May 1988 | 3 | 4.2% | +28.6% | +12329.6% |
| Dec 1988 | Jan 1989 | 2 | 1.5% | +12.6% | +11546.9% |
| Dec 1989 | Feb 1991 | 60 | 50.2% | -19.1% | +10243.5% |
| Sep 1994 | Feb 1995 | 19 | 8.9% | +43.5% | +4167.4% |
| Feb 1995 | May 1995 | 9 | 6.8% | +46.2% | +3772.8% |
| Aug 1995 | Aug 1995 | 1 | 1.1% | +29.9% | +3518.7% |
| Sep 1999 | Mar 2000 | 25 | 21.4% | +74.0% | +1434.0% |
| May 2000 | May 2000 | 2 | 2.7% | +139.8% | +1265.7% |
| Jun 2000 | Jun 2000 | 1 | 2.3% | +123.7% | +1242.4% |
| Jun 2006 | Jul 2006 | 5 | 11.4% | -9.6% | +142.8% |
| Aug 2006 | Nov 2006 | 14 | 7.0% | -17.4% | +147.3% |
| Feb 2007 | Dec 2010 | 197 | 90.5% | -60.8% | +119.9% |
| Aug 2011 | Oct 2011 | 9 | 10.9% | +123.0% | +599.6% |
| Feb 2016 | Feb 2016 | 3 | 2.2% | +14.6% | +144.2% |
| Sep 2016 | Nov 2016 | 7 | 3.6% | +25.1% | +127.6% |
| Nov 2016 | Dec 2016 | 1 | 1.9% | +51.9% | +129.1% |
| Dec 2016 | Dec 2016 | 1 | 0.8% | +53.4% | +126.2% |
| Sep 2018 | Mar 2019 | 26 | 20.7% | +17.6% | +101.7% |
| Jun 2019 | Aug 2019 | 6 | 5.6% | +22.5% | +93.8% |
| Mar 2020 | May 2020 | 10 | 34.5% | +94.5% | +104.9% |
| Jun 2022 | Jun 2022 | 1 | 7.5% | +88.9% | +41.0% |
| Mar 2025 | Jul 2025 | 16 | 6.8% | -20.7% | -23.7% |
| Dec 2025 | Jan 2026 | 3 | 9.9% | N/A | -22.5% |
| Jan 2026 | Ongoing | 28+ | 29.9% | Ongoing | -25.2% |
| Average | 20 | — | +29.6% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is LEN below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-07-31, Lennar Corporation (LEN) is trading 29.9% below its 200-week moving average of $117.45. The current price is $82.35.
What is LEN's 200-week moving average price?
Lennar Corporation's 200-week moving average is $117.45 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when LEN drops below its 200-week moving average?
LEN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 32 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +29.6%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 20 weeks on average.
Is LEN a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about LEN as of 2026-07-31: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 35. Free cash flow yield is 5.4%. Return on equity is 7.4%. Price-to-book is 0.9x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does LEN compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.6 years, $100 invested in LEN would have grown to $3224, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. That's 10.9% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. LEN has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does LEN pay a dividend?
Yes. Lennar Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 243.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31