LEN
Lennar Corporation Consumer Discretionary - Homebuilders Investor Relations →
Lennar Corporation (LEN) closed at $76.43 as of 2026-09-18, trading 35.1% below its 200-week moving average of $117.84. This places LEN in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -32.5% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 31, indicating neutral momentum.
A big spike in selling this week — 3.1x the usual volume, and the price dropped. Sometimes this kind of heavy selling marks the end of a decline. The idea is that the last reluctant holders have finally sold, leaving fewer sellers left to push the price lower.
Over the past 2378 weeks of data, LEN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 32 times. On average, these episodes lasted 20 weeks. Historically, investors who bought LEN at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +29.6%.
With a market cap of $18.4 billion, LEN is a large-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 6.0%. The stock trades at 0.8x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 14.8% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in LEN would have grown to $2992, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. LEN has returned 10.6% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -79.4% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: LEN vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After LEN Crosses Below the Line?
Across 21 historical episodes, buying LEN when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +45.8% after 12 months (median +43.0%), compared to +16.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 79% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +61.6% vs +25.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment LEN crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices LEN would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where LEN's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-12-15.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $80.15 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $83.99 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $88.21 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $92.88 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $98.07 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | $1.29 | $1.23 | -4.5% |
| 2026-06-11 | $1.23 | $1.31 | +6.2% |
| 2026-03-12 | $0.95 | $0.88 | -7.2% |
| 2025-12-16 | $2.18 | $2.03 | -6.8% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from LEN's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
LEN has crossed below its 200-week MA 32 times with an average 1-year return of +29.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 1981 | Sep 1982 | 61 | 37.8% | -33.6% | +11555.9% |
| Oct 1983 | Oct 1983 | 1 | 5.5% | -26.7% | +11822.9% |
| Dec 1983 | Jan 1984 | 4 | 7.8% | -25.4% | +11555.9% |
| Jan 1984 | Feb 1986 | 108 | 43.4% | -11.0% | +11384.5% |
| Jul 1986 | Sep 1986 | 9 | 13.0% | +40.8% | +11732.6% |
| Oct 1986 | Nov 1986 | 4 | 3.3% | +41.9% | +12198.4% |
| Oct 1987 | Dec 1987 | 8 | 11.5% | +20.5% | +12612.5% |
| Jan 1988 | Jan 1988 | 1 | 2.8% | +20.2% | +11873.8% |
| May 1988 | May 1988 | 3 | 4.2% | +28.6% | +11436.1% |
| Dec 1988 | Jan 1989 | 2 | 1.5% | +12.6% | +10709.6% |
| Dec 1989 | Feb 1991 | 60 | 50.2% | -19.1% | +9499.9% |
| Sep 1994 | Feb 1995 | 19 | 8.9% | +43.5% | +3860.7% |
| Feb 1995 | May 1995 | 9 | 6.8% | +46.2% | +3494.4% |
| Aug 1995 | Aug 1995 | 1 | 1.1% | +29.9% | +3258.5% |
| Sep 1999 | Mar 2000 | 25 | 21.4% | +74.0% | +1323.7% |
| May 2000 | May 2000 | 2 | 2.7% | +139.8% | +1167.6% |
| Jun 2000 | Jun 2000 | 1 | 2.3% | +123.7% | +1145.9% |
| Jun 2006 | Jul 2006 | 5 | 11.4% | -9.6% | +125.3% |
| Aug 2006 | Nov 2006 | 14 | 7.0% | -17.4% | +129.5% |
| Feb 2007 | Dec 2010 | 197 | 90.5% | -60.8% | +104.1% |
| Aug 2011 | Oct 2011 | 9 | 10.9% | +123.0% | +549.3% |
| Feb 2016 | Feb 2016 | 3 | 2.2% | +14.6% | +126.6% |
| Sep 2016 | Nov 2016 | 7 | 3.6% | +25.1% | +111.2% |
| Nov 2016 | Dec 2016 | 1 | 1.9% | +51.9% | +112.7% |
| Dec 2016 | Dec 2016 | 1 | 0.8% | +53.4% | +109.9% |
| Sep 2018 | Mar 2019 | 26 | 20.7% | +17.6% | +87.2% |
| Jun 2019 | Aug 2019 | 6 | 5.6% | +22.5% | +79.9% |
| Mar 2020 | May 2020 | 10 | 34.5% | +94.5% | +90.2% |
| Jun 2022 | Jun 2022 | 1 | 7.5% | +88.9% | +30.8% |
| Mar 2025 | Jul 2025 | 16 | 6.8% | -20.7% | -29.1% |
| Dec 2025 | Jan 2026 | 3 | 9.9% | N/A | -28.1% |
| Jan 2026 | Ongoing | 35+ | 35.1% | Ongoing | -30.6% |
| Average | 20 | — | +29.6% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is LEN below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-09-18, Lennar Corporation (LEN) is trading 35.1% below its 200-week moving average of $117.84. The current price is $76.43.
What is LEN's 200-week moving average price?
Lennar Corporation's 200-week moving average is $117.84 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when LEN drops below its 200-week moving average?
LEN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 32 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +29.6%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 20 weeks on average.
Is LEN a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about LEN as of 2026-09-18: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 31. Return on equity is 6.0%. Price-to-book is 0.8x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does LEN compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in LEN would have grown to $2992, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That's 10.6% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. LEN has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does LEN pay a dividend?
Yes. Lennar Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 251.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18