LEA
Lear Corporation Consumer Cyclical - Auto Parts Investor Relations →
Lear Corporation (LEA) closed at $130.64 as of 2026-07-31, trading 13.6% above its 200-week moving average of $114.97. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 25.0% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 52, indicating neutral momentum.
A big spike in selling this week — 2.3x the usual volume, and the price dropped. Sometimes this kind of heavy selling marks the end of a decline. The idea is that the last reluctant holders have finally sold, leaving fewer sellers left to push the price lower.
Over the past 824 weeks of data, LEA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 20 times. On average, these episodes lasted 14 weeks. Historically, investors who bought LEA at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +0.3%.
Return on equity stands at 12.2%. The stock trades at 1.3x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 14.3% over the past three years.
Over the past 15.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in LEA would have grown to $379, compared to $833 for the S&P 500. LEA has returned 8.8% annualized vs 14.3% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: LEA vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After LEA Crosses Below the Line?
Across 20 historical episodes, buying LEA when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +0.6% after 12 months (median +0.0%), compared to +17.9% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 47% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +27.3% vs +44.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment LEA crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices LEA would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where LEA's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $111.97 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $119.35 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $127.76 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $137.45 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $148.73 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from LEA's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
LEA has crossed below its 200-week MA 20 times with an average 1-year return of +0.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2011 | Aug 2011 | 1 | 3.4% | +0.9% | +306.7% |
| Sep 2011 | Sep 2011 | 3 | 6.1% | -2.8% | +293.4% |
| Nov 2011 | Jan 2012 | 11 | 13.4% | +1.4% | +310.4% |
| Apr 2012 | Oct 2012 | 25 | 13.5% | +41.8% | +301.3% |
| Nov 2012 | Nov 2012 | 1 | 2.8% | +101.0% | +304.9% |
| Oct 2018 | Oct 2018 | 3 | 4.5% | -10.8% | +14.3% |
| Nov 2018 | Nov 2018 | 1 | 0.5% | -7.4% | +13.9% |
| Dec 2018 | Jan 2019 | 5 | 13.4% | N/A | +19.7% |
| Mar 2019 | Apr 2019 | 2 | 3.8% | -41.1% | +14.9% |
| May 2019 | Nov 2020 | 79 | 47.8% | -26.9% | +13.3% |
| Mar 2022 | Mar 2022 | 1 | 4.4% | +1.7% | +7.1% |
| Apr 2022 | Jul 2022 | 15 | 11.7% | +5.4% | +13.9% |
| Aug 2022 | Nov 2022 | 10 | 12.9% | +9.3% | +5.4% |
| Dec 2022 | Jan 2023 | 7 | 10.8% | +4.3% | +9.7% |
| Mar 2023 | Mar 2023 | 2 | 1.2% | +6.2% | +5.3% |
| Apr 2023 | Jun 2023 | 9 | 9.5% | +9.2% | +8.0% |
| Sep 2023 | Dec 2023 | 12 | 7.5% | -16.6% | +6.1% |
| Jan 2024 | Mar 2024 | 9 | 5.9% | -29.7% | +3.0% |
| Apr 2024 | Dec 2025 | 88 | 39.6% | -40.4% | +4.1% |
| Mar 2026 | Mar 2026 | 2 | 0.9% | N/A | +15.0% |
| Average | 14 | — | +0.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is LEA below its 200-week moving average?
No. Lear Corporation (LEA) is currently 13.6% above its 200-week moving average of $114.97. It would need to fall to $114.97 to cross below the line.
What is LEA's 200-week moving average price?
Lear Corporation's 200-week moving average is $114.97 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when LEA drops below its 200-week moving average?
LEA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 20 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +0.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 14 weeks on average.
Is LEA a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about LEA as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 52. Return on equity is 12.2%. Price-to-book is 1.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does LEA compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 15.8 years, $100 invested in LEA would have grown to $379, compared to $833 for the S&P 500. That's 8.8% annualized vs 14.3% for the index. LEA has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does LEA pay a dividend?
Yes. Lear Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 209.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31