LDOS
Leidos Holdings Inc. Industrials - Defense IT Investor Relations →
Leidos Holdings Inc. (LDOS) closed at $107.12 as of 2026-06-19, trading 18.3% below its 200-week moving average of $131.09. This places LDOS in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -7.1% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 14, LDOS is in oversold territory.
A big spike in selling this week — 2.5x the usual volume, and the price dropped. Sometimes this kind of heavy selling marks the end of a decline. The idea is that the last reluctant holders have finally sold, leaving fewer sellers left to push the price lower.
Over the past 978 weeks of data, LDOS has crossed below its 200-week moving average 13 times. On average, these episodes lasted 20 weeks. Historically, investors who bought LDOS at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +10.5%.
With a market cap of $13.5 billion, LDOS is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 8.9%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 30.6%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 2.7x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 7.8% over the past three years.
Over the past 18.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in LDOS would have grown to $451, compared to $694 for the S&P 500. LDOS has returned 8.3% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 23.5% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: LDOS vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After LDOS Crosses Below the Line?
Across 12 historical episodes, buying LDOS when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +10.7% after 12 months (median +4.0%), compared to +11.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 50% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +12.9% vs +29.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment LDOS crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices LDOS would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where LDOS's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-28.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $122.63 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $133.59 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $146.70 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $162.67 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $182.54 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from LDOS's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
LDOS has crossed below its 200-week MA 13 times with an average 1-year return of +10.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2008 | Feb 2008 | 5 | 3.2% | +4.0% | +365.4% |
| Mar 2008 | Apr 2008 | 4 | 1.2% | -4.7% | +368.7% |
| Jul 2008 | Aug 2008 | 1 | 0.8% | -3.3% | +362.7% |
| Oct 2008 | Dec 2008 | 9 | 9.3% | +9.4% | +404.5% |
| Feb 2009 | Oct 2009 | 32 | 10.0% | +4.2% | +357.6% |
| Oct 2009 | Dec 2009 | 8 | 5.3% | -14.1% | +371.8% |
| Jan 2010 | Feb 2010 | 3 | 1.9% | -10.5% | +370.0% |
| Mar 2010 | Apr 2013 | 160 | 36.9% | -1.0% | +396.7% |
| Jun 2013 | Jun 2013 | 2 | 4.2% | +29.4% | +503.7% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 4 | 2.0% | +4.3% | +26.4% |
| Mar 2023 | Jul 2023 | 21 | 16.8% | +41.4% | +20.8% |
| Sep 2023 | Oct 2023 | 7 | 4.2% | +67.5% | +17.9% |
| May 2026 | Ongoing | 7+ | 18.3% | Ongoing | -17.4% |
| Average | 20 | — | +10.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is LDOS below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-06-19, Leidos Holdings Inc. (LDOS) is trading 18.3% below its 200-week moving average of $131.09. The current price is $107.12.
What is LDOS's 200-week moving average price?
Leidos Holdings Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $131.09 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when LDOS drops below its 200-week moving average?
LDOS has crossed below its 200-week moving average 13 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +10.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 20 weeks on average.
Is LDOS a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about LDOS as of 2026-06-19: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 14 (oversold). Free cash flow yield is 8.9%. Return on equity is 30.6%. Price-to-book is 2.7x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does LDOS compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 18.8 years, $100 invested in LDOS would have grown to $451, compared to $694 for the S&P 500. That's 8.3% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. LDOS has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does LDOS pay a dividend?
Yes. Leidos Holdings Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 151.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19