LDOS
Leidos Holdings Inc. Industrials - Defense IT Investor Relations →
Leidos Holdings Inc. (LDOS) closed at $127.69 as of 2026-09-18, trading 3.8% below its 200-week moving average of $132.75. This places LDOS in the below line zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -3.1% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 54, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.05 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 991 weeks of data, LDOS has crossed below its 200-week moving average 14 times. On average, these episodes lasted 19 weeks. Historically, investors who bought LDOS at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +10.0%.
With a market cap of $16.0 billion, LDOS is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 7.2%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 27.8%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 3.0x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 7.8% over the past three years.
Over the past 19.1 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in LDOS would have grown to $539, compared to $706 for the S&P 500. LDOS has returned 9.2% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 23.5% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: LDOS vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After LDOS Crosses Below the Line?
Across 13 historical episodes, buying LDOS when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +10.7% after 12 months (median +4.0%), compared to +11.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 50% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +12.9% vs +29.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment LDOS crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices LDOS would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where LDOS's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-03.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $79.73 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $91.11 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $106.29 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $127.52 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $159.36 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | $2.91 | $3.26 | +12.1% |
| 2026-05-05 | $2.91 | $3.13 | +7.6% |
| 2026-02-17 | $2.61 | $2.76 | +5.9% |
| 2025-11-04 | $2.72 | $3.05 | +12.3% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
the write-ups I read Simply Wall St · Visual company reports and write-ups. Free tier covers five reports a month. referral
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from LDOS's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
LDOS has crossed below its 200-week MA 14 times with an average 1-year return of +10.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2008 | Feb 2008 | 5 | 3.2% | +4.0% | +456.6% |
| Mar 2008 | Apr 2008 | 4 | 1.2% | -4.7% | +460.5% |
| Jul 2008 | Aug 2008 | 1 | 0.8% | -3.3% | +453.3% |
| Oct 2008 | Dec 2008 | 9 | 9.3% | +9.4% | +503.4% |
| Feb 2009 | Oct 2009 | 32 | 10.0% | +4.2% | +447.2% |
| Oct 2009 | Dec 2009 | 8 | 5.3% | -14.1% | +464.2% |
| Jan 2010 | Feb 2010 | 3 | 1.9% | -10.5% | +462.1% |
| Mar 2010 | Apr 2013 | 160 | 36.9% | -1.0% | +494.0% |
| Jun 2013 | Jun 2013 | 1 | 1.5% | +23.0% | +602.8% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 4 | 2.1% | +4.3% | +51.2% |
| Mar 2023 | Jul 2023 | 21 | 16.8% | +41.4% | +44.5% |
| Sep 2023 | Oct 2023 | 7 | 4.2% | +67.3% | +40.4% |
| May 2026 | Aug 2026 | 13 | 22.4% | N/A | -1.2% |
| Sep 2026 | Ongoing | 2+ | 3.8% | Ongoing | -0.6% |
| Average | 19 | — | +10.0% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is LDOS below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-09-18, Leidos Holdings Inc. (LDOS) is trading 3.8% below its 200-week moving average of $132.75. The current price is $127.69.
What is LDOS's 200-week moving average price?
Leidos Holdings Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $132.75 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when LDOS drops below its 200-week moving average?
LDOS has crossed below its 200-week moving average 14 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +10.0%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 19 weeks on average.
Is LDOS a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about LDOS as of 2026-09-18: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 54. Free cash flow yield is 7.2%. Return on equity is 27.8%. Price-to-book is 3.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does LDOS compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 19.1 years, $100 invested in LDOS would have grown to $539, compared to $706 for the S&P 500. That's 9.2% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. LDOS has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does LDOS pay a dividend?
Yes. Leidos Holdings Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 135.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18