LCII
LCI Industries Consumer Cyclical - Recreational Vehicles Investor Relations →
LCI Industries (LCII) closed at $85.60 as of 2026-09-18, trading 15.8% below its 200-week moving average of $101.60. This places LCII in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -10.4% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 44, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 14 weeks, up-weeks have carried more volume than down-weeks (1.59 buyers-vs-sellers ratio). When trading picks up, it's more often on days the price is rising — buyers are showing more interest than sellers.
Over the past 2107 weeks of data, LCII has crossed below its 200-week moving average 26 times. On average, these episodes lasted 27 weeks. Historically, investors who bought LCII at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +5.3%.
With a market cap of $2.1 billion, LCII is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 12.7%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 15.0%, a solid level. The stock trades at 1.4x book value.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in LCII would have grown to $4803, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 12.2% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming LCII as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -16.1% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: LCII vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After LCII Crosses Below the Line?
Across 24 historical episodes, buying LCII when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +10.0% after 12 months (median +15.0%), compared to +15.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 57% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +27.1% vs +35.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment LCII crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices LCII would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where LCII's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-29.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $84.73 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $90.50 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $97.12 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $104.78 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $113.75 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | $2.56 | $2.70 | +5.5% |
| 2026-05-05 | $2.17 | $2.59 | +19.2% |
| 2026-02-18 | $0.71 | $0.89 | +26.2% |
| 2025-10-30 | $1.44 | $1.97 | +36.8% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from LCII's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
LCII has crossed below its 200-week MA 26 times with an average 1-year return of +5.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1986 | Oct 1991 | 286 | 74.1% | -33.3% | +7665.0% |
| Aug 1999 | Dec 2001 | 124 | 51.5% | -34.8% | +2432.1% |
| Dec 2007 | Feb 2008 | 8 | 18.1% | -51.8% | +470.3% |
| Mar 2008 | Mar 2010 | 102 | 76.8% | -67.8% | +449.8% |
| Mar 2010 | Apr 2010 | 3 | 4.8% | +10.8% | +544.8% |
| May 2010 | Dec 2010 | 31 | 16.0% | +25.2% | +607.1% |
| Aug 2011 | Sep 2011 | 6 | 6.6% | +54.7% | +629.9% |
| Oct 2018 | Jan 2019 | 15 | 25.8% | +14.6% | +39.4% |
| Jan 2019 | Apr 2019 | 10 | 11.9% | +37.2% | +37.6% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 1 | 2.8% | +22.8% | +33.6% |
| Aug 2019 | Sep 2019 | 4 | 6.4% | +52.1% | +28.2% |
| Mar 2020 | May 2020 | 11 | 37.5% | +49.7% | +17.7% |
| Apr 2022 | May 2022 | 4 | 7.3% | +5.5% | +1.1% |
| Jun 2022 | Jun 2022 | 1 | 0.4% | +20.4% | -2.9% |
| Sep 2022 | Jan 2023 | 19 | 15.0% | +18.9% | -2.2% |
| Mar 2023 | Apr 2023 | 5 | 6.1% | +13.4% | -6.7% |
| May 2023 | May 2023 | 1 | 3.6% | +12.8% | -7.4% |
| Oct 2023 | Nov 2023 | 8 | 5.9% | +14.5% | -10.0% |
| Mar 2024 | Mar 2024 | 1 | 3.6% | -15.0% | -13.6% |
| Apr 2024 | Aug 2024 | 19 | 12.9% | -26.0% | -12.8% |
| Sep 2024 | Sep 2024 | 1 | 1.3% | -0.7% | -16.5% |
| Oct 2024 | Nov 2024 | 2 | 1.2% | -14.0% | -16.7% |
| Dec 2024 | Aug 2025 | 35 | 28.7% | +23.7% | -11.7% |
| Sep 2025 | Oct 2025 | 7 | 17.0% | -5.6% | -11.2% |
| Jun 2026 | Jul 2026 | 6 | 9.9% | N/A | -8.2% |
| Sep 2026 | Ongoing | 2+ | 15.7% | Ongoing | -6.0% |
| Average | 27 | — | +5.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is LCII below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-09-18, LCI Industries (LCII) is trading 15.8% below its 200-week moving average of $101.60. The current price is $85.60.
What is LCII's 200-week moving average price?
LCI Industries's 200-week moving average is $101.60 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when LCII drops below its 200-week moving average?
LCII has crossed below its 200-week moving average 26 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +5.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 27 weeks on average.
Is LCII a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about LCII as of 2026-09-18: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 44. Free cash flow yield is 12.7%. Return on equity is 15.0%. Price-to-book is 1.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does LCII compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in LCII would have grown to $4803, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That's 12.2% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. LCII has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does LCII pay a dividend?
Yes. LCI Industries currently pays a dividend yield of 532.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18