LADR
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Ladder Capital Corp (LADR) closed at $9.56 as of 2026-07-31, trading 4.0% above its 200-week moving average of $9.20. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 6.4% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 37, indicating neutral momentum.
A big spike in selling this week — 2.0x the usual volume, and the price dropped. Sometimes this kind of heavy selling marks the end of a decline. The idea is that the last reluctant holders have finally sold, leaving fewer sellers left to push the price lower.
Over the past 603 weeks of data, LADR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 17 times. On average, these episodes lasted 11 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -1.1%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $1213 million, LADR is a small-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 3.6%. The stock trades at 0.8x book value.
Over the past 11.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in LADR would have grown to $146, compared to $453 for the S&P 500. LADR has returned 3.3% annualized vs 13.9% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -6.6% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: LADR vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After LADR Crosses Below the Line?
Across 17 historical episodes, buying LADR when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +16.6% after 12 months (median +2.0%), compared to +7.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 59% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +32.8% vs +28.6% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment LADR crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices LADR would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where LADR's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $8.61 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $9.04 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $9.52 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $10.05 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $10.64 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from LADR's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
LADR has crossed below its 200-week MA 17 times with an average 1-year return of +-1.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2015 | Jan 2015 | 2 | 0.6% | -35.6% | +48.4% |
| Feb 2015 | Mar 2015 | 3 | 2.7% | -33.9% | +49.4% |
| Mar 2015 | Jun 2015 | 11 | 5.3% | -23.6% | +50.0% |
| Jun 2015 | Nov 2016 | 71 | 32.4% | -15.6% | +56.8% |
| Mar 2020 | Mar 2021 | 52 | 73.8% | +13.2% | +40.2% |
| Apr 2021 | Apr 2021 | 1 | 0.4% | +7.3% | +27.0% |
| May 2021 | May 2021 | 3 | 2.3% | +3.8% | +26.8% |
| Jun 2021 | Sep 2021 | 15 | 7.3% | -8.3% | +26.6% |
| Nov 2021 | Nov 2021 | 1 | 0.1% | +4.5% | +23.7% |
| Dec 2021 | Dec 2021 | 1 | 0.0% | -5.7% | +23.5% |
| Feb 2022 | Mar 2022 | 1 | 0.4% | +6.4% | +23.3% |
| May 2022 | May 2022 | 1 | 2.4% | -3.9% | +25.8% |
| Jun 2022 | Jul 2022 | 6 | 11.0% | +5.7% | +26.6% |
| Aug 2022 | Sep 2022 | 1 | 0.5% | +11.1% | +24.4% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 5 | 15.6% | +12.1% | +30.5% |
| Dec 2022 | Jan 2023 | 3 | 4.0% | +23.9% | +31.0% |
| Mar 2023 | May 2023 | 12 | 11.3% | +20.6% | +30.2% |
| Average | 11 | — | +-1.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is LADR below its 200-week moving average?
No. Ladder Capital Corp (LADR) is currently 4.0% above its 200-week moving average of $9.20. It would need to fall to $9.20 to cross below the line.
What is LADR's 200-week moving average price?
Ladder Capital Corp's 200-week moving average is $9.20 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when LADR drops below its 200-week moving average?
LADR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 17 times in our data. The average one-year return after these crossings was -1.1%, meaning the dips were not reliable buying signals for this particular stock. These episodes lasted 11 weeks on average.
Is LADR a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about LADR as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 37. Return on equity is 3.6%. Price-to-book is 0.8x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does LADR compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 11.6 years, $100 invested in LADR would have grown to $146, compared to $453 for the S&P 500. That's 3.3% annualized vs 13.9% for the index. LADR has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does LADR pay a dividend?
Yes. Ladder Capital Corp currently pays a dividend yield of 948.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31