KREF
KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc. Real Estate - REIT - Mortgage Investor Relations →
KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc. (KREF) closed at $6.79 as of 2026-09-18, trading 18.2% below its 200-week moving average of $8.30. This places KREF in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -14.1% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 44, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.26 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 441 weeks of data, KREF has crossed below its 200-week moving average 7 times. On average, these episodes lasted 33 weeks. Historically, investors who bought KREF at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +27.8%.
With a market cap of $437 million, KREF is a small-cap stock. Return on equity stands at -16.5%. The stock trades at 0.7x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 6.8% over the past three years.
Over the past 8.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in KREF would have grown to $80, compared to $328 for the S&P 500. KREF has returned -2.7% annualized vs 15.0% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -21.8% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: KREF vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After KREF Crosses Below the Line?
Across 7 historical episodes, buying KREF when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +21.9% after 12 months (median +13.0%), compared to +26.9% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 86% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +18.6% vs +37.7% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment KREF crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices KREF would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where KREF's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-21.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $6.41 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $7.03 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $7.79 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $8.72 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $9.90 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | $-0.47 | $-0.58 | -22.8% |
| 2026-04-22 | $-0.37 | $-0.96 | -160.1% |
| 2026-02-03 | $0.13 | $0.22 | +65.0% |
| 2025-10-21 | $0.02 | $-0.03 | -266.7% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from KREF's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
KREF has crossed below its 200-week MA 7 times with an average 1-year return of +27.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2018 | Apr 2018 | 2 | 1.0% | +12.6% | -18.9% |
| Nov 2018 | Nov 2018 | 1 | 1.2% | +13.6% | -20.1% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 1 | 1.8% | +18.8% | -19.6% |
| Mar 2020 | Aug 2020 | 21 | 45.0% | +29.7% | -16.3% |
| Sep 2020 | Sep 2020 | 1 | 1.8% | +43.6% | -22.3% |
| Nov 2020 | Nov 2020 | 1 | 2.1% | +48.2% | -22.1% |
| Nov 2022 | Ongoing | 201+ | 35.0% | Ongoing | -34.5% |
| Average | 33 | — | +27.8% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is KREF below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-09-18, KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc. (KREF) is trading 18.2% below its 200-week moving average of $8.30. The current price is $6.79.
What is KREF's 200-week moving average price?
KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $8.30 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when KREF drops below its 200-week moving average?
KREF has crossed below its 200-week moving average 7 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +27.8%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 33 weeks on average.
Is KREF a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about KREF as of 2026-09-18: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 44. Return on equity is -16.5%. Price-to-book is 0.7x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does KREF compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 8.5 years, $100 invested in KREF would have grown to $80, compared to $328 for the S&P 500. That's -2.7% annualized vs 15.0% for the index. KREF has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does KREF pay a dividend?
Yes. KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 589.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18