KREF
KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc. Real Estate - REIT - Mortgage Investor Relations →
KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc. (KREF) closed at $6.38 as of 2026-03-20, trading 32.1% below its 200-week moving average of $9.40. This places KREF in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -30.5% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 22, KREF is in oversold territory.
A big spike in selling this week — 3.1x the usual volume, and the price dropped. Sometimes this kind of heavy selling marks the end of a decline. The idea is that the last reluctant holders have finally sold, leaving fewer sellers left to push the price lower.
Over the past 415 weeks of data, KREF has crossed below its 200-week moving average 9 times. On average, these episodes lasted 23 weeks. Historically, investors who bought KREF at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +19.9%.
With a market cap of $410 million, KREF is a small-cap stock. Return on equity stands at -3.8%. The stock trades at 0.5x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 6.8% over the past three years.
Over the past 8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in KREF would have grown to $71, compared to $278 for the S&P 500. KREF has returned -4.2% annualized vs 13.6% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -21.8% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: KREF vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After KREF Crosses Below the Line?
Across 9 historical episodes, buying KREF when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +16.1% after 12 months (median +12.0%), compared to +24.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 78% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +13.0% vs +38.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment KREF crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
KREF has crossed below its 200-week MA 9 times with an average 1-year return of +19.9% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2018 | Apr 2018 | 2 | 0.9% | +12.6% | -27.9% |
| Jun 2018 | Jul 2018 | 1 | 0.5% | +9.9% | -28.4% |
| Nov 2018 | Nov 2018 | 1 | 1.1% | +13.6% | -28.9% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 2 | 1.7% | +18.8% | -28.5% |
| Mar 2020 | Aug 2020 | 21 | 45.0% | +29.7% | -25.6% |
| Sep 2020 | Oct 2020 | 2 | 1.7% | +43.6% | -30.9% |
| Nov 2020 | Nov 2020 | 1 | 1.9% | +48.2% | -30.7% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 1 | 1.5% | -16.9% | -41.2% |
| Nov 2022 | Ongoing | 175+ | 32.9% | Ongoing | -41.7% |
| Average | 23 | — | +19.9% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is KREF below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-03-20, KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc. (KREF) is trading 32.1% below its 200-week moving average of $9.40. The current price is $6.38.
What is KREF's 200-week moving average price?
KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $9.40 as of 2026-03-20. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when KREF drops below its 200-week moving average?
KREF has crossed below its 200-week moving average 9 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +19.9%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 23 weeks on average.
Is KREF a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about KREF as of 2026-03-20: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 22 (oversold). Return on equity is -3.8%. Price-to-book is 0.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does KREF compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 8 years, $100 invested in KREF would have grown to $71, compared to $278 for the S&P 500. That's -4.2% annualized vs 13.6% for the index. KREF has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does KREF pay a dividend?
Yes. KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 1567.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-03-20