KREF
KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc. Real Estate - REIT - Mortgage Investor Relations →
KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc. (KREF) closed at $7.32 as of 2026-02-02, trading 23.6% below its 200-week moving average of $9.58. This places KREF in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -13.8% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 42, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 409 weeks of data, KREF has crossed below its 200-week moving average 9 times. On average, these episodes lasted 22 weeks. Historically, investors who bought KREF at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +19.9%.
With a market cap of $479 million, KREF is a small-cap stock. Return on equity stands at -3.8%. The stock trades at 0.6x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 6.8% over the past three years.
Over the past 7.9 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in KREF would have grown to $81, compared to $295 for the S&P 500. KREF has returned -2.6% annualized vs 14.6% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -21.8% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Growth of $100: KREF vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After KREF Crosses Below the Line?
Across 9 historical episodes, buying KREF when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +16.1% after 12 months (median +12.0%), compared to +24.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 78% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +13.0% vs +38.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment KREF crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
KREF has crossed below its 200-week MA 9 times with an average 1-year return of +19.9% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2018 | Apr 2018 | 2 | 0.9% | +12.6% | -17.3% |
| Jun 2018 | Jul 2018 | 1 | 0.5% | +9.9% | -17.9% |
| Nov 2018 | Nov 2018 | 1 | 1.1% | +13.6% | -18.4% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 2 | 1.7% | +18.8% | -18.0% |
| Mar 2020 | Aug 2020 | 21 | 45.0% | +29.7% | -14.6% |
| Sep 2020 | Oct 2020 | 2 | 1.7% | +43.6% | -20.7% |
| Nov 2020 | Nov 2020 | 1 | 1.9% | +48.2% | -20.5% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 1 | 1.5% | -16.9% | -32.5% |
| Nov 2022 | Ongoing | 169+ | 32.9% | Ongoing | -33.1% |
| Average | 22 | — | +19.9% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02