KR
The Kroger Co. Consumer Staples - Grocery Investor Relations →
The Kroger Co. (KR) closed at $56.61 as of 2026-06-19, trading 4.6% above its 200-week moving average of $54.13. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 19.7% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 18, KR is in oversold territory.
A big spike in selling this week — 2.5x the usual volume, and the price dropped. Sometimes this kind of heavy selling marks the end of a decline. The idea is that the last reluctant holders have finally sold, leaving fewer sellers left to push the price lower.
Over the past 3315 weeks of data, KR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 28 times. On average, these episodes lasted 28 weeks. Historically, investors who bought KR at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +31.7%.
With a market cap of $34.7 billion, KR is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 9.8%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 14.4%. The stock trades at 6.1x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 14.1% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in KR would have grown to $3714, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 11.4% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming KR as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 34.5% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: KR vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After KR Crosses Below the Line?
Across 18 historical episodes, buying KR when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +13.8% after 12 months (median +15.0%), compared to +6.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 56% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +31.5% vs +19.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment KR crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices KR would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where KR's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-01-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $60.02 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $62.93 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $66.13 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $69.68 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $73.63 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from KR's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
KR has crossed below its 200-week MA 28 times with an average 1-year return of +31.7% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1966 | Apr 1968 | 104 | 29.8% | -16.5% | +158120.9% |
| May 1968 | May 1968 | 2 | 2.3% | +57.4% | +156784.7% |
| Jan 1970 | Feb 1970 | 1 | 1.9% | +49.5% | +148346.4% |
| May 1970 | May 1970 | 1 | 7.0% | +70.3% | +153059.0% |
| Jun 1970 | Jul 1970 | 4 | 3.6% | +66.2% | +147168.3% |
| Sep 1971 | Sep 1971 | 1 | 0.2% | -29.2% | +118207.8% |
| Oct 1971 | Dec 1971 | 10 | 12.7% | -31.7% | +119662.5% |
| Feb 1972 | Jan 1975 | 154 | 42.7% | -21.8% | +120134.3% |
| Oct 1975 | Dec 1975 | 9 | 10.5% | +46.0% | +158574.4% |
| Oct 1988 | Nov 1988 | 1 | 32.8% | +384.6% | +20053.3% |
| Jun 1992 | Jan 1993 | 29 | 25.8% | +20.2% | +4268.8% |
| Dec 1999 | May 2000 | 22 | 26.6% | +53.3% | +911.5% |
| May 2000 | Jun 2000 | 3 | 8.4% | +31.6% | +755.1% |
| Oct 2000 | Oct 2000 | 1 | 0.0% | +15.0% | +673.6% |
| Apr 2001 | Apr 2001 | 4 | 2.3% | -0.5% | +634.5% |
| Sep 2001 | Sep 2001 | 1 | 0.9% | -34.0% | +597.6% |
| Dec 2001 | Jun 2005 | 184 | 44.8% | -26.5% | +692.1% |
| Jan 2009 | Feb 2011 | 109 | 19.4% | -3.1% | +599.1% |
| Aug 2011 | Oct 2011 | 10 | 4.2% | +1.0% | +562.7% |
| Nov 2011 | Nov 2011 | 2 | 1.6% | +11.5% | +567.9% |
| May 2012 | Jun 2012 | 4 | 2.4% | +65.1% | +577.1% |
| Jul 2012 | Jul 2012 | 2 | 2.4% | +84.6% | +587.8% |
| Aug 2012 | Aug 2012 | 1 | 0.0% | +75.5% | +573.6% |
| Mar 2017 | Apr 2017 | 4 | 2.1% | -14.8% | +138.7% |
| Apr 2017 | May 2017 | 5 | 2.4% | -12.2% | +132.0% |
| Jun 2017 | Aug 2018 | 61 | 33.6% | +18.5% | +207.4% |
| Sep 2018 | Nov 2019 | 63 | 25.0% | -3.6% | +140.3% |
| Jan 2020 | Feb 2020 | 1 | 0.3% | +31.2% | +141.9% |
| Average | 28 | — | +31.7% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is KR below its 200-week moving average?
No. The Kroger Co. (KR) is currently 4.6% above its 200-week moving average of $54.13. It would need to fall to $54.13 to cross below the line.
What is KR's 200-week moving average price?
The Kroger Co.'s 200-week moving average is $54.13 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when KR drops below its 200-week moving average?
KR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 28 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +31.7%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 28 weeks on average.
Is KR a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about KR as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 18 (oversold). Free cash flow yield is 9.8%. Return on equity is 14.4%. Price-to-book is 6.1x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does KR compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in KR would have grown to $3714, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 11.4% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. KR has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does KR pay a dividend?
Yes. The Kroger Co. currently pays a dividend yield of 218.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19