KR
The Kroger Co. Consumer Staples - Grocery Investor Relations →
The Kroger Co. (KR) closed at $57.74 as of 2026-07-31, trading 5.8% above its 200-week moving average of $54.59. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 4.3% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 34, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.0x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.01 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 3321 weeks of data, KR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 27 times. On average, these episodes lasted 29 weeks. Historically, investors who bought KR at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +18.6%.
Return on equity stands at 13.8%. The stock trades at 6.2x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 14.1% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in KR would have grown to $3788, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 11.4% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming KR as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 34.5% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: KR vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After KR Crosses Below the Line?
Across 18 historical episodes, buying KR when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +13.8% after 12 months (median +15.0%), compared to +6.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 56% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +31.5% vs +19.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment KR crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices KR would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where KR's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-09-10.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $56.12 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $62.66 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $70.93 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $81.70 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $96.34 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from KR's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
KR has crossed below its 200-week MA 27 times with an average 1-year return of +18.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1966 | Apr 1968 | 104 | 29.8% | -16.5% | +161279.4% |
| May 1968 | May 1968 | 2 | 2.3% | +57.4% | +159916.4% |
| Jan 1970 | Feb 1970 | 1 | 0.8% | +49.0% | +149528.4% |
| May 1970 | May 1970 | 1 | 7.1% | +70.3% | +156116.2% |
| Jun 1970 | Jul 1970 | 4 | 3.7% | +66.2% | +150107.9% |
| Sep 1971 | Sep 1971 | 1 | 0.3% | -29.2% | +120569.4% |
| Oct 1971 | Dec 1971 | 10 | 12.8% | -31.7% | +122053.2% |
| Feb 1972 | Jan 1975 | 154 | 42.7% | -21.8% | +122534.4% |
| Oct 1975 | Dec 1975 | 9 | 8.9% | +46.0% | +161741.7% |
| Jun 1992 | Jan 1993 | 29 | 26.1% | +20.2% | +4356.0% |
| Dec 1999 | May 2000 | 22 | 26.6% | +53.3% | +931.7% |
| May 2000 | Jun 2000 | 3 | 8.4% | +31.6% | +772.2% |
| Oct 2000 | Oct 2000 | 1 | 0.0% | +15.0% | +689.1% |
| Apr 2001 | Apr 2001 | 4 | 2.3% | -0.5% | +649.1% |
| Sep 2001 | Sep 2001 | 1 | 0.9% | -34.0% | +611.5% |
| Dec 2001 | Jun 2005 | 184 | 44.8% | -26.5% | +707.9% |
| Jan 2009 | Feb 2011 | 109 | 19.4% | -3.1% | +613.1% |
| Aug 2011 | Oct 2011 | 10 | 4.2% | +0.5% | +572.6% |
| Nov 2011 | Nov 2011 | 2 | 1.6% | +12.1% | +581.2% |
| May 2012 | Jun 2012 | 4 | 2.4% | +65.8% | +590.6% |
| Jul 2012 | Jul 2012 | 2 | 2.4% | +84.6% | +601.6% |
| Aug 2012 | Aug 2012 | 1 | 0.1% | +75.5% | +587.1% |
| Mar 2017 | Apr 2017 | 4 | 2.1% | -14.8% | +143.5% |
| Apr 2017 | May 2017 | 5 | 2.4% | -12.2% | +136.7% |
| Jun 2017 | Aug 2018 | 61 | 33.6% | +18.5% | +213.5% |
| Sep 2018 | Nov 2019 | 63 | 25.1% | -3.6% | +145.1% |
| Jan 2020 | Feb 2020 | 1 | 0.3% | +31.2% | +146.8% |
| Average | 29 | — | +18.6% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is KR below its 200-week moving average?
No. The Kroger Co. (KR) is currently 5.8% above its 200-week moving average of $54.59. It would need to fall to $54.59 to cross below the line.
What is KR's 200-week moving average price?
The Kroger Co.'s 200-week moving average is $54.59 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when KR drops below its 200-week moving average?
KR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 27 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +18.6%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 29 weeks on average.
Is KR a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about KR as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 34. Return on equity is 13.8%. Price-to-book is 6.2x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does KR compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.6 years, $100 invested in KR would have grown to $3788, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. That's 11.4% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. KR has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does KR pay a dividend?
Yes. The Kroger Co. currently pays a dividend yield of 249.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31