KNX
Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. Industrials - Trucking Investor Relations →
Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. (KNX) closed at $74.15 as of 2026-06-19, trading 44.3% above its 200-week moving average of $51.40. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 58.6% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 79, KNX is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.6x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.88 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1603 weeks of data, KNX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 32 times. On average, these episodes lasted 10 weeks. Historically, investors who bought KNX at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +19.6%.
With a market cap of $12.0 billion, KNX is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 4.1%. Return on equity stands at 0.5%. The stock trades at 1.7x book value.
Over the past 30.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in KNX would have grown to $5430, compared to $2181 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 13.9% vs 10.5% for the index — confirming KNX as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -10.1% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: KNX vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After KNX Crosses Below the Line?
Across 32 historical episodes, buying KNX when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +20.9% after 12 months (median +13.0%), compared to +8.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 75% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +58.2% vs +26.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment KNX crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices KNX would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where KNX's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-22.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $57.98 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $61.65 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $65.82 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $70.59 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $76.11 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from KNX's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
KNX has crossed below its 200-week MA 32 times with an average 1-year return of +19.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1995 | Nov 1995 | 7 | 4.3% | +53.0% | +5354.3% |
| Dec 1995 | Jan 1996 | 6 | 7.8% | +50.9% | +5329.5% |
| Aug 1999 | Jan 2000 | 20 | 34.2% | +21.4% | +3455.0% |
| Feb 2000 | Mar 2000 | 6 | 6.8% | +46.6% | +2916.4% |
| May 2000 | Jul 2000 | 9 | 17.4% | +73.2% | +2882.5% |
| Aug 2000 | Dec 2000 | 18 | 17.5% | +89.5% | +2806.3% |
| Oct 2007 | Apr 2008 | 28 | 12.7% | -13.0% | +529.3% |
| May 2008 | May 2008 | 1 | 0.2% | -2.8% | +462.9% |
| Jun 2008 | Jun 2008 | 1 | 0.2% | +3.3% | +460.0% |
| Sep 2008 | May 2009 | 35 | 27.9% | -2.6% | +452.4% |
| Jun 2009 | Jul 2009 | 6 | 5.7% | +30.3% | +464.8% |
| Aug 2009 | Oct 2009 | 6 | 4.1% | +17.4% | +473.3% |
| Oct 2009 | Nov 2009 | 6 | 6.3% | +8.6% | +460.4% |
| May 2011 | Jun 2011 | 4 | 3.0% | +0.8% | +455.1% |
| Jul 2011 | Jan 2012 | 26 | 19.7% | -7.4% | +443.7% |
| Apr 2012 | Jun 2012 | 6 | 3.1% | -1.1% | +434.5% |
| Jun 2012 | Jan 2013 | 31 | 13.4% | +8.4% | +443.8% |
| Feb 2013 | Mar 2013 | 4 | 2.8% | +37.7% | +432.2% |
| Apr 2013 | May 2013 | 5 | 4.6% | +48.0% | +429.1% |
| Jul 2018 | Jul 2018 | 1 | 0.9% | +15.6% | +150.1% |
| Oct 2018 | Oct 2018 | 4 | 6.6% | +10.5% | +149.5% |
| Nov 2018 | Nov 2018 | 1 | 2.6% | +18.2% | +152.5% |
| Dec 2018 | Feb 2019 | 10 | 26.2% | +27.0% | +177.5% |
| Mar 2019 | Mar 2019 | 1 | 3.4% | -2.4% | +154.5% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 7 | 15.6% | +20.8% | +153.6% |
| Aug 2019 | Aug 2019 | 1 | 2.7% | +46.3% | +147.0% |
| Feb 2020 | Apr 2020 | 6 | 15.0% | +36.4% | +148.6% |
| Oct 2023 | Oct 2023 | 1 | 0.0% | +11.0% | +60.4% |
| Apr 2024 | Jul 2024 | 14 | 7.2% | -17.1% | +58.8% |
| Sep 2024 | Sep 2024 | 1 | 1.4% | -12.7% | +52.1% |
| Sep 2024 | Oct 2024 | 2 | 2.1% | -15.7% | +52.4% |
| Feb 2025 | Dec 2025 | 40 | 24.6% | +26.7% | +50.2% |
| Average | 10 | — | +19.6% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is KNX below its 200-week moving average?
No. Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. (KNX) is currently 44.3% above its 200-week moving average of $51.40. It would need to fall to $51.40 to cross below the line.
What is KNX's 200-week moving average price?
Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $51.40 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when KNX drops below its 200-week moving average?
KNX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 32 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +19.6%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 10 weeks on average.
Is KNX a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about KNX as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 79 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 4.1%. Return on equity is 0.5%. Price-to-book is 1.7x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does KNX compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 30.8 years, $100 invested in KNX would have grown to $5430, compared to $2181 for the S&P 500. That's 13.9% annualized vs 10.5% for the index. KNX has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19