KNTK
Kinetik Holdings Inc. Energy - Natural Gas Midstream Investor Relations →
Kinetik Holdings Inc. (KNTK) closed at $54.75 as of 2026-09-11, trading 49.6% above its 200-week moving average of $36.60. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 49.3% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 76, KNTK is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.93 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 360 weeks of data, KNTK has crossed below its 200-week moving average 3 times. On average, these episodes lasted 27 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -79.4%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $9.3 billion, KNTK is a mid-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 19.2%, a solid level. The stock trades at -3.6x book value.
Share count has increased 40.3% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 7 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in KNTK would have grown to $374, compared to $278 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 20.8% vs 15.7% for the index — confirming KNTK as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -42.5% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: KNTK vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After KNTK Crosses Below the Line?
Across 3 historical episodes, buying KNTK when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -79.0% after 12 months (median -79.0%), compared to +10.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. After 24 months, the average return was +46.0% vs +57.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment KNTK crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices KNTK would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where KNTK's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-04.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $45.08 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $47.23 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $49.60 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $52.22 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $55.14 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | $0.15 | $-0.53 | -450.4% |
| 2026-05-06 | $0.24 | $0.77 | +222.9% |
| 2026-02-25 | $0.34 | $2.18 | +549.4% |
| 2025-11-05 | $0.28 | $0.52 | +85.4% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from KNTK's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
KNTK has crossed below its 200-week MA 3 times with an average 1-year return of +-79.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2019 | Apr 2021 | 79 | 86.7% | -79.4% | +249.9% |
| Nov 2025 | Nov 2025 | 1 | 5.1% | N/A | +76.8% |
| Dec 2025 | Dec 2025 | 1 | 2.9% | N/A | +71.7% |
| Average | 27 | — | +-79.4% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is KNTK below its 200-week moving average?
No. Kinetik Holdings Inc. (KNTK) is currently 49.6% above its 200-week moving average of $36.60. It would need to fall to $36.60 to cross below the line.
What is KNTK's 200-week moving average price?
Kinetik Holdings Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $36.60 as of 2026-09-11. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when KNTK drops below its 200-week moving average?
KNTK has crossed below its 200-week moving average 3 times in our data. The average one-year return after these crossings was -79.4%, meaning the dips were not reliable buying signals for this particular stock. These episodes lasted 27 weeks on average.
Is KNTK a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about KNTK as of 2026-09-11: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 76 (overbought). Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is 19.2%. Price-to-book is -3.6x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does KNTK compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 7 years, $100 invested in KNTK would have grown to $374, compared to $278 for the S&P 500. That's 20.8% annualized vs 15.7% for the index. KNTK has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does KNTK pay a dividend?
Yes. Kinetik Holdings Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 592.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-11