KMX
CarMax Inc. Consumer Discretionary - Auto Retail Investor Relations →
CarMax Inc. (KMX) closed at $53.66 as of 2026-06-19, trading 19.6% below its 200-week moving average of $66.75. This places KMX in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -23.5% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 66, indicating neutral momentum.
A big jump in activity this week — 2.1x the usual volume, and the price went up. Significantly more people than usual decided to buy. This kind of surge, especially on a stock already below its 200-week average, can be an early sign that sentiment is shifting.
Over the past 1484 weeks of data, KMX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 15 times. On average, these episodes lasted 34 weeks. Historically, investors who bought KMX at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +22.4%.
With a market cap of $7.6 billion, KMX is a mid-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 4.1%. The stock trades at 1.3x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 10.3% over the past three years.
Over the past 28.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in KMX would have grown to $1396, compared to $1241 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 9.7% vs 9.2% for the index — confirming KMX as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 13% compound annual rate, with 2 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: KMX vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After KMX Crosses Below the Line?
Across 15 historical episodes, buying KMX when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +26.1% after 12 months (median +27.0%), compared to +13.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 73% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +28.5% vs +29.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment KMX crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices KMX would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where KMX's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-02-28).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $35.10 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $39.73 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $45.76 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $53.95 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $65.71 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from KMX's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
KMX has crossed below its 200-week MA 15 times with an average 1-year return of +22.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1998 | Mar 2001 | 167 | 82.6% | -34.2% | +1330.9% |
| Jul 2004 | Sep 2004 | 10 | 8.3% | +33.2% | +440.4% |
| Jan 2008 | Jan 2008 | 1 | 5.4% | -51.2% | +222.7% |
| Jun 2008 | Sep 2009 | 65 | 64.7% | -22.5% | +200.1% |
| Jul 2010 | Jul 2010 | 1 | 2.5% | +73.9% | +187.4% |
| Jan 2016 | Feb 2016 | 8 | 10.7% | +39.7% | +14.7% |
| Mar 2016 | Mar 2016 | 1 | 1.2% | +22.1% | +9.9% |
| Jun 2016 | Jul 2016 | 4 | 9.2% | +21.0% | +9.0% |
| Oct 2016 | Nov 2016 | 5 | 6.0% | +46.8% | +2.5% |
| Mar 2018 | Mar 2018 | 1 | 1.0% | +3.8% | -9.6% |
| Nov 2018 | Dec 2018 | 7 | 6.1% | +58.0% | -13.5% |
| Jan 2019 | Mar 2019 | 10 | 6.4% | +54.5% | -13.3% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 6 | 36.7% | +93.3% | -22.4% |
| Apr 2022 | Jul 2022 | 15 | 10.8% | -24.3% | -41.5% |
| Aug 2022 | Ongoing | 201+ | 57.3% | Ongoing | -44.3% |
| Average | 34 | — | +22.4% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is KMX below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-06-19, CarMax Inc. (KMX) is trading 19.6% below its 200-week moving average of $66.75. The current price is $53.66.
What is KMX's 200-week moving average price?
CarMax Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $66.75 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when KMX drops below its 200-week moving average?
KMX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 15 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +22.4%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 34 weeks on average.
Is KMX a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about KMX as of 2026-06-19: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 66. Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is 4.1%. Price-to-book is 1.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does KMX compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 28.5 years, $100 invested in KMX would have grown to $1396, compared to $1241 for the S&P 500. That's 9.7% annualized vs 9.2% for the index. KMX has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19