KMX
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CarMax Inc. (KMX) closed at $47.17 as of 2026-02-02, trading 34.2% below its 200-week moving average of $71.64. This places KMX in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -38.1% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 57, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 1465 weeks of data, KMX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 15 times. On average, these episodes lasted 32 weeks. Historically, investors who bought KMX at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +22.4%.
With a market cap of $6.9 billion, KMX is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 9.4%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 7.5%. The stock trades at 1.1x book value.
Over the past 28.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in KMX would have grown to $1227, compared to $1142 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 9.3% vs 9.0% for the index — confirming KMX as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Growth of $100: KMX vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After KMX Crosses Below the Line?
Across 15 historical episodes, buying KMX when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +26.1% after 12 months (median +27.0%), compared to +13.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 73% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +28.5% vs +29.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment KMX crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
KMX has crossed below its 200-week MA 15 times with an average 1-year return of +22.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1998 | Mar 2001 | 167 | 82.6% | -34.2% | +1157.9% |
| Jul 2004 | Sep 2004 | 10 | 8.3% | +33.2% | +375.0% |
| Jan 2008 | Jan 2008 | 1 | 5.4% | -51.2% | +183.6% |
| Jun 2008 | Sep 2009 | 65 | 64.7% | -22.5% | +163.8% |
| Jul 2010 | Jul 2010 | 1 | 2.5% | +73.9% | +152.7% |
| Jan 2016 | Feb 2016 | 8 | 10.7% | +39.7% | +0.8% |
| Mar 2016 | Mar 2016 | 1 | 1.2% | +22.1% | -3.4% |
| Jun 2016 | Jul 2016 | 4 | 9.2% | +21.0% | -4.2% |
| Oct 2016 | Nov 2016 | 5 | 6.0% | +46.8% | -9.9% |
| Mar 2018 | Mar 2018 | 1 | 1.0% | +3.8% | -20.5% |
| Nov 2018 | Dec 2018 | 7 | 6.1% | +58.0% | -24.0% |
| Jan 2019 | Mar 2019 | 10 | 6.4% | +54.5% | -23.8% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 6 | 36.7% | +93.3% | -31.8% |
| Apr 2022 | Jul 2022 | 15 | 10.8% | -24.3% | -48.6% |
| Aug 2022 | Ongoing | 182+ | 57.3% | Ongoing | -51.0% |
| Average | 32 | — | +22.4% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02