KMT
Kennametal Inc. Industrials - Tools & Accessories Investor Relations →
Kennametal Inc. (KMT) closed at $33.97 as of 2026-07-31, trading 34.9% above its 200-week moving average of $25.19. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 40.3% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 37, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.9x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.70 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2740 weeks of data, KMT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 36 times. On average, these episodes lasted 25 weeks. Historically, investors who bought KMT at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +10.5%.
With a market cap of $2.6 billion, KMT is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.9%. Return on equity stands at 10.8%. The stock trades at 1.9x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 6.5% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in KMT would have grown to $961, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. KMT has returned 7.0% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 12.2% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: KMT vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After KMT Crosses Below the Line?
Across 23 historical episodes, buying KMT when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +11.9% after 12 months (median +11.0%), compared to +8.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 55% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +11.9% vs +22.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment KMT crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices KMT would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where KMT's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $29.46 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $35.06 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $43.28 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $56.54 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $81.51 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from KMT's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
KMT has crossed below its 200-week MA 36 times with an average 1-year return of +10.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 1974 | Jul 1974 | 4 | 6.2% | +37.3% | +4805.7% |
| Aug 1974 | Oct 1974 | 12 | 9.8% | +54.1% | +4872.0% |
| Dec 1974 | Jan 1975 | 5 | 2.8% | +50.5% | +4963.3% |
| May 1982 | Nov 1982 | 23 | 24.1% | +11.5% | +1226.7% |
| Nov 1982 | Dec 1982 | 3 | 4.4% | +16.8% | +1189.5% |
| Jan 1983 | Jul 1983 | 24 | 14.2% | +15.9% | +1115.6% |
| Jul 1983 | Nov 1983 | 17 | 10.3% | -25.7% | +1121.0% |
| Jan 1984 | Mar 1986 | 112 | 32.1% | -16.0% | +1059.4% |
| Jun 1986 | Oct 1986 | 20 | 18.6% | +24.9% | +1300.8% |
| Dec 1986 | Jan 1987 | 2 | 1.8% | +39.6% | +1322.4% |
| Jan 1990 | Jan 1990 | 2 | 2.5% | +8.6% | +992.6% |
| Feb 1990 | Mar 1990 | 2 | 1.1% | +31.6% | +981.7% |
| Aug 1990 | Jan 1991 | 24 | 16.5% | +24.0% | +930.9% |
| Oct 1991 | Dec 1991 | 9 | 10.9% | -3.1% | +869.6% |
| Jul 1992 | Feb 1993 | 31 | 11.7% | +14.7% | +843.3% |
| Jul 1998 | Feb 2001 | 136 | 52.5% | -21.3% | +268.4% |
| Mar 2001 | Apr 2001 | 5 | 16.1% | +47.5% | +304.2% |
| Feb 2003 | Mar 2003 | 5 | 3.2% | +42.3% | +272.0% |
| Mar 2003 | Apr 2003 | 5 | 6.1% | +40.9% | +291.8% |
| Jan 2008 | Jan 2008 | 1 | 2.4% | -34.8% | +89.8% |
| Mar 2008 | Mar 2008 | 1 | 0.4% | -43.9% | +83.2% |
| Jul 2008 | Aug 2008 | 2 | 0.9% | -26.8% | +76.4% |
| Sep 2008 | Mar 2010 | 75 | 53.4% | -7.3% | +112.2% |
| May 2010 | Jun 2010 | 3 | 3.4% | +51.9% | +83.9% |
| Jun 2010 | Sep 2010 | 12 | 11.8% | +50.2% | +84.0% |
| Oct 2014 | Nov 2016 | 111 | 55.2% | -25.5% | +18.9% |
| Dec 2016 | Jan 2017 | 4 | 6.9% | +48.6% | +35.8% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 2 | 0.5% | +16.8% | +28.6% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 4 | 6.9% | -17.1% | +29.5% |
| Aug 2019 | Nov 2019 | 13 | 16.5% | +0.3% | +38.1% |
| Nov 2019 | Nov 2019 | 1 | 0.9% | +3.3% | +22.5% |
| Jan 2020 | Nov 2020 | 44 | 54.3% | +20.8% | +19.0% |
| Jun 2021 | Jun 2021 | 1 | 2.6% | -28.2% | +17.8% |
| Jul 2021 | Jul 2021 | 1 | 1.9% | -28.2% | +16.9% |
| Feb 2022 | Nov 2024 | 143 | 33.8% | -10.2% | +19.5% |
| Dec 2024 | Nov 2025 | 47 | 27.3% | +13.9% | +33.3% |
| Average | 25 | — | +10.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is KMT below its 200-week moving average?
No. Kennametal Inc. (KMT) is currently 34.9% above its 200-week moving average of $25.19. It would need to fall to $25.19 to cross below the line.
What is KMT's 200-week moving average price?
Kennametal Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $25.19 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when KMT drops below its 200-week moving average?
KMT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 36 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +10.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 25 weeks on average.
Is KMT a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about KMT as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 37. Free cash flow yield is 2.9%. Return on equity is 10.8%. Price-to-book is 1.9x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does KMT compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.6 years, $100 invested in KMT would have grown to $961, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. That's 7.0% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. KMT has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does KMT pay a dividend?
Yes. Kennametal Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 240.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31