KMT
Kennametal Inc. Industrials - Tools & Accessories Investor Relations →
Kennametal Inc. (KMT) closed at $29.77 as of 2026-09-18, trading 17.5% above its 200-week moving average of $25.33. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 16.4% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 33, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.81 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2747 weeks of data, KMT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 36 times. On average, these episodes lasted 25 weeks. Historically, investors who bought KMT at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +10.5%.
With a market cap of $2.3 billion, KMT is a mid-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 23.9%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 1.4x book value.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in KMT would have grown to $847, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. KMT has returned 6.5% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -100% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: KMT vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After KMT Crosses Below the Line?
Across 23 historical episodes, buying KMT when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +11.9% after 12 months (median +11.0%), compared to +8.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 55% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +11.9% vs +22.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment KMT crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. KMT currently has negative free cash flow, so price-based dislocation levels are not available. The score still tracks yield deviation from baseline.
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | $2.31 | $2.96 | +28.4% |
| 2026-05-06 | $0.67 | $0.77 | +14.6% |
| 2026-02-04 | $0.38 | $0.47 | +24.3% |
| 2025-11-05 | $0.24 | $0.34 | +44.6% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from KMT's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
KMT has crossed below its 200-week MA 36 times with an average 1-year return of +10.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 1974 | Jul 1974 | 4 | 6.2% | +37.3% | +4226.6% |
| Aug 1974 | Oct 1974 | 12 | 9.8% | +54.1% | +4285.1% |
| Dec 1974 | Jan 1975 | 5 | 2.8% | +50.5% | +4365.5% |
| May 1982 | Nov 1982 | 23 | 24.1% | +11.5% | +1070.1% |
| Nov 1982 | Dec 1982 | 3 | 4.4% | +16.8% | +1037.2% |
| Jan 1983 | Jul 1983 | 24 | 14.2% | +15.9% | +972.1% |
| Jul 1983 | Nov 1983 | 17 | 10.3% | -25.7% | +976.9% |
| Jan 1984 | Mar 1986 | 112 | 32.1% | -16.0% | +922.6% |
| Jun 1986 | Oct 1986 | 20 | 18.6% | +24.9% | +1135.4% |
| Dec 1986 | Jan 1987 | 2 | 1.8% | +39.6% | +1154.5% |
| Jan 1990 | Jan 1990 | 2 | 2.5% | +8.6% | +863.7% |
| Feb 1990 | Mar 1990 | 2 | 1.1% | +31.6% | +854.0% |
| Aug 1990 | Jan 1991 | 24 | 16.5% | +24.0% | +809.2% |
| Oct 1991 | Dec 1991 | 9 | 10.9% | -3.1% | +755.1% |
| Jul 1992 | Feb 1993 | 31 | 11.7% | +14.7% | +732.0% |
| Jul 1998 | Feb 2001 | 136 | 52.5% | -21.3% | +224.9% |
| Mar 2001 | Apr 2001 | 5 | 16.1% | +47.5% | +256.5% |
| Feb 2003 | Mar 2003 | 5 | 3.2% | +42.3% | +228.1% |
| Mar 2003 | Apr 2003 | 5 | 6.1% | +40.9% | +245.6% |
| Jan 2008 | Jan 2008 | 1 | 2.4% | -34.8% | +67.4% |
| Mar 2008 | Mar 2008 | 1 | 0.4% | -43.9% | +61.6% |
| Jul 2008 | Aug 2008 | 2 | 0.9% | -26.8% | +55.6% |
| Sep 2008 | Mar 2010 | 75 | 53.4% | -7.3% | +87.1% |
| May 2010 | Jun 2010 | 3 | 3.4% | +51.9% | +62.2% |
| Jun 2010 | Sep 2010 | 12 | 11.8% | +50.2% | +62.3% |
| Oct 2014 | Nov 2016 | 111 | 55.2% | -25.5% | +4.9% |
| Dec 2016 | Jan 2017 | 4 | 6.9% | +48.6% | +19.8% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 2 | 0.5% | +16.8% | +13.4% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 4 | 6.9% | -17.1% | +14.2% |
| Aug 2019 | Nov 2019 | 13 | 16.5% | +0.3% | +21.8% |
| Nov 2019 | Nov 2019 | 1 | 0.9% | +3.3% | +8.0% |
| Jan 2020 | Nov 2020 | 44 | 54.3% | +20.8% | +5.0% |
| Jun 2021 | Jun 2021 | 1 | 2.6% | -28.2% | +3.9% |
| Jul 2021 | Jul 2021 | 1 | 1.9% | -28.2% | +3.1% |
| Feb 2022 | Nov 2024 | 143 | 33.8% | -10.2% | +5.4% |
| Dec 2024 | Nov 2025 | 47 | 27.3% | +13.9% | +17.6% |
| Average | 25 | — | +10.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is KMT below its 200-week moving average?
No. Kennametal Inc. (KMT) is currently 17.5% above its 200-week moving average of $25.33. It would need to fall to $25.33 to cross below the line.
What is KMT's 200-week moving average price?
Kennametal Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $25.33 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when KMT drops below its 200-week moving average?
KMT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 36 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +10.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 25 weeks on average.
Is KMT a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about KMT as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 33. Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is 23.9%. Price-to-book is 1.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does KMT compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in KMT would have grown to $847, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That's 6.5% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. KMT has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does KMT pay a dividend?
Yes. Kennametal Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 269.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18