KLAC
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KLA Corporation (KLAC) closed at $176.99 as of 2026-09-18, trading 101.4% above its 200-week moving average of $87.88. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 107.2% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 24, KLAC is in oversold territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.3x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.89 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2349 weeks of data, KLAC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 23 times. On average, these episodes lasted 28 weeks. Historically, investors who bought KLAC at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +5.6%.
With a market cap of $231.2 billion, KLAC is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 1.1%. Return on equity stands at 87.5%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 36.4x book value.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in KLAC would have grown to $108055, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 23.0% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming KLAC as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 4.2% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: KLAC vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After KLAC Crosses Below the Line?
Across 15 historical episodes, buying KLAC when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +39.3% after 12 months (median +33.0%), compared to +7.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 67% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +37.3% vs +13.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment KLAC crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices KLAC would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where KLAC's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-28.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $150.45 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $192.44 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $266.92 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $435.47 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $1181.67 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | $1.00 | $1.05 | +5.1% |
| 2026-04-29 | $0.92 | $0.94 | +2.5% |
| 2026-01-29 | $0.88 | $0.89 | +0.6% |
| 2025-10-29 | $0.86 | $0.88 | +2.2% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from KLAC's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
KLAC has crossed below its 200-week MA 23 times with an average 1-year return of +5.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1981 | Oct 1982 | 56 | 47.7% | +34.3% | +483725.7% |
| Aug 1986 | Aug 1986 | 1 | 2.2% | +48.4% | +84317.9% |
| Sep 1986 | Jan 1987 | 18 | 33.0% | +41.3% | +85657.8% |
| Oct 1987 | Mar 1988 | 22 | 39.2% | -26.0% | +73910.2% |
| Mar 1988 | Apr 1988 | 4 | 3.9% | -38.7% | +75995.0% |
| May 1988 | May 1988 | 2 | 3.7% | -36.5% | +72910.0% |
| Jun 1988 | Jun 1988 | 1 | 1.1% | -31.1% | +72910.0% |
| Jul 1988 | Apr 1991 | 142 | 55.8% | -40.5% | +72910.0% |
| Apr 1991 | Apr 1991 | 1 | 0.5% | -30.0% | +107954.9% |
| May 1991 | May 1991 | 1 | 0.3% | -29.3% | +109046.3% |
| Jul 1991 | Jan 1992 | 28 | 27.8% | -24.7% | +127023.4% |
| Mar 1992 | Nov 1992 | 36 | 30.9% | +34.9% | +125545.2% |
| Jul 1996 | Oct 1996 | 14 | 17.0% | +161.4% | +32446.6% |
| May 1998 | Nov 1998 | 25 | 38.4% | +39.0% | +18957.3% |
| Oct 2000 | Dec 2000 | 9 | 19.4% | +41.9% | +10748.9% |
| Sep 2001 | Oct 2001 | 5 | 14.4% | -17.4% | +9857.9% |
| Jul 2002 | Jul 2003 | 52 | 40.6% | +9.4% | +7609.4% |
| Apr 2004 | Jan 2005 | 41 | 22.8% | -11.9% | +7147.7% |
| Mar 2005 | Jul 2005 | 17 | 16.4% | +7.6% | +7122.9% |
| Oct 2005 | Oct 2005 | 1 | 2.2% | +6.9% | +7277.7% |
| May 2006 | Oct 2006 | 20 | 14.7% | +19.8% | +7270.4% |
| Oct 2006 | Oct 2006 | 1 | 0.3% | +16.4% | +7113.5% |
| Dec 2007 | Oct 2010 | 146 | 63.6% | -47.3% | +7443.0% |
| Average | 28 | — | +5.6% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is KLAC below its 200-week moving average?
No. KLA Corporation (KLAC) is currently 101.4% above its 200-week moving average of $87.88. It would need to fall to $87.88 to cross below the line.
What is KLAC's 200-week moving average price?
KLA Corporation's 200-week moving average is $87.88 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when KLAC drops below its 200-week moving average?
KLAC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 23 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +5.6%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 28 weeks on average.
Is KLAC a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about KLAC as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 24 (oversold). Free cash flow yield is 1.1%. Return on equity is 87.5%. Price-to-book is 36.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does KLAC compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in KLAC would have grown to $108055, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That's 23.0% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. KLAC has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does KLAC pay a dividend?
Yes. KLA Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 52.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18