KHC
The Kraft Heinz Company Consumer Staples - Food Investor Relations →
The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC) closed at $22.82 as of 2026-06-19, trading 20.0% below its 200-week moving average of $28.54. This places KHC in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -14.7% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 52, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.90 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 523 weeks of data, KHC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times. On average, these episodes lasted 31 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -5.6%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $27.1 billion, KHC is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 11.9%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at -12.6%. The stock trades at 0.7x book value.
Over the past 10.1 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in KHC would have grown to $41, compared to $421 for the S&P 500. KHC has returned -8.5% annualized vs 15.3% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 1 open-market purchase totaling $4,999,808. Notably, these purchases occurred while KHC is trading below its 200-week moving average — insiders are buying when the market is most pessimistic.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 33.1% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: KHC vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After KHC Crosses Below the Line?
Across 10 historical episodes, buying KHC when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -7.6% after 12 months (median +0.0%), compared to +9.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 40% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was -20.8% vs +27.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment KHC crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices KHC would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where KHC's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-29.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $20.56 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $21.31 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $22.11 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $22.97 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $23.90 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from KHC's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
KHC has crossed below its 200-week MA 10 times with an average 1-year return of +-5.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2017 | Nov 2017 | 9 | 4.2% | -23.4% | -55.0% |
| Dec 2017 | Jan 2018 | 6 | 2.5% | -35.2% | -55.9% |
| Jan 2018 | May 2021 | 170 | 60.2% | -35.4% | -55.1% |
| Jul 2021 | Nov 2021 | 16 | 6.7% | +1.0% | -25.6% |
| Nov 2021 | Dec 2021 | 6 | 5.6% | +12.5% | -18.2% |
| Jan 2022 | Feb 2022 | 1 | 0.2% | +18.1% | -17.7% |
| Aug 2023 | Sep 2023 | 2 | 2.4% | +13.9% | -17.5% |
| Oct 2023 | Nov 2023 | 6 | 5.7% | +13.1% | -17.1% |
| Jun 2024 | Jul 2024 | 7 | 5.4% | -15.2% | -20.8% |
| Oct 2024 | Ongoing | 86+ | 27.1% | Ongoing | -24.3% |
| Average | 31 | — | +-5.6% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is KHC below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-06-19, The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC) is trading 20.0% below its 200-week moving average of $28.54. The current price is $22.82.
What is KHC's 200-week moving average price?
The Kraft Heinz Company's 200-week moving average is $28.54 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when KHC drops below its 200-week moving average?
KHC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times in our data. The average one-year return after these crossings was -5.6%, meaning the dips were not reliable buying signals for this particular stock. These episodes lasted 31 weeks on average.
Is KHC a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about KHC as of 2026-06-19: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 52. Free cash flow yield is 11.9%. Return on equity is -12.6%. Price-to-book is 0.7x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does KHC compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 10.1 years, $100 invested in KHC would have grown to $41, compared to $421 for the S&P 500. That's -8.5% annualized vs 15.3% for the index. KHC has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does KHC pay a dividend?
Yes. The Kraft Heinz Company currently pays a dividend yield of 672.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19