KHC
The Kraft Heinz Company Consumer Staples - Food Investor Relations →
The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC) closed at $24.43 as of 2026-09-18, trading 12.2% below its 200-week moving average of $27.83. This places KHC in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -11.7% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 53, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.5x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.74 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 536 weeks of data, KHC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 9 times. On average, these episodes lasted 36 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -1.9%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $29.0 billion, KHC is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 11.2%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at -8.8%. The stock trades at 0.8x book value.
Over the past 10.3 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in KHC would have grown to $44, compared to $428 for the S&P 500. KHC has returned -7.5% annualized vs 15.1% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 1 open-market purchase totaling $4,999,808. Notably, these purchases occurred while KHC is trading below its 200-week moving average — insiders are buying when the market is most pessimistic.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 33.1% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: KHC vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After KHC Crosses Below the Line?
Across 9 historical episodes, buying KHC when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -4.6% after 12 months (median +0.0%), compared to +10.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 44% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was -15.0% vs +28.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment KHC crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices KHC would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where KHC's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-28.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $23.52 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $24.45 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $25.45 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $26.54 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $27.73 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | $0.53 | $0.56 | +5.6% |
| 2026-05-06 | $0.50 | $0.58 | +15.4% |
| 2026-02-11 | $0.61 | $0.67 | +9.1% |
| 2025-10-29 | $0.58 | $0.61 | +5.8% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from KHC's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
KHC has crossed below its 200-week MA 9 times with an average 1-year return of +-1.9% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2017 | Nov 2017 | 8 | 4.3% | -23.4% | -51.0% |
| Dec 2017 | May 2021 | 178 | 60.2% | -35.2% | -52.0% |
| Jul 2021 | Nov 2021 | 16 | 5.7% | +1.0% | -19.1% |
| Nov 2021 | Dec 2021 | 6 | 5.7% | +12.5% | -11.0% |
| Jan 2022 | Feb 2022 | 2 | 0.3% | +18.1% | -10.5% |
| Aug 2023 | Sep 2023 | 2 | 1.3% | +13.9% | -11.4% |
| Oct 2023 | Nov 2023 | 6 | 5.8% | +13.1% | -9.9% |
| Jun 2024 | Jul 2024 | 7 | 5.4% | -15.2% | -13.9% |
| Oct 2024 | Ongoing | 99+ | 27.2% | Ongoing | -17.7% |
| Average | 36 | — | +-1.9% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is KHC below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-09-18, The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC) is trading 12.2% below its 200-week moving average of $27.83. The current price is $24.43.
What is KHC's 200-week moving average price?
The Kraft Heinz Company's 200-week moving average is $27.83 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when KHC drops below its 200-week moving average?
KHC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 9 times in our data. The average one-year return after these crossings was -1.9%, meaning the dips were not reliable buying signals for this particular stock. These episodes lasted 36 weeks on average.
Is KHC a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about KHC as of 2026-09-18: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 53. Free cash flow yield is 11.2%. Return on equity is -8.8%. Price-to-book is 0.8x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does KHC compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 10.3 years, $100 invested in KHC would have grown to $44, compared to $428 for the S&P 500. That's -7.5% annualized vs 15.1% for the index. KHC has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does KHC pay a dividend?
Yes. The Kraft Heinz Company currently pays a dividend yield of 647.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18