KGC
Kinross Gold Corporation Materials - Gold Mining Investor Relations →
Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC) closed at $29.13 as of 2026-09-11, trading 116.5% above its 200-week moving average of $13.45. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 131.6% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 56, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.9x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.88 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2325 weeks of data, KGC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 31 times. On average, these episodes lasted 34 weeks. Historically, investors who bought KGC at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +39.2%.
With a market cap of $34.6 billion, KGC is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 8.7%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 37.0%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 3.6x book value.
KGC passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in KGC would have grown to $1393, compared to $3170 for the S&P 500. KGC has returned 8.1% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 107.8% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: KGC vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After KGC Crosses Below the Line?
Across 22 historical episodes, buying KGC when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +45.5% after 12 months (median +22.0%), compared to +18.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 68% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +69.2% vs +36.6% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment KGC crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices KGC would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where KGC's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-10.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $19.36 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $21.61 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $24.44 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $28.13 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $33.12 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | $0.66 | $0.71 | +7.6% |
| 2026-04-29 | $0.74 | $0.71 | -4.1% |
| 2026-02-18 | $0.55 | $0.67 | +21.8% |
| 2025-11-04 | $0.39 | $0.44 | +12.2% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from KGC's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
KGC has crossed below its 200-week MA 31 times with an average 1-year return of +39.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1982 | Sep 1982 | 29 | 40.2% | +125.0% | +1409.4% |
| Nov 1982 | Jan 1983 | 8 | 12.1% | +35.3% | +965.4% |
| Jul 1984 | Oct 1985 | 66 | 44.9% | -45.0% | +805.6% |
| Oct 1985 | Nov 1985 | 2 | 7.2% | +89.5% | +853.3% |
| Nov 1987 | Nov 1987 | 3 | 5.0% | -13.3% | +503.8% |
| Aug 1988 | Jun 1989 | 43 | 48.2% | +17.6% | +432.7% |
| Jul 1989 | Aug 1989 | 5 | 7.7% | -22.2% | +403.1% |
| Jan 1990 | Feb 1990 | 3 | 5.8% | -48.6% | +389.5% |
| Feb 1990 | Mar 1993 | 161 | 62.9% | -63.2% | +376.6% |
| Apr 1993 | Apr 1993 | 1 | 1.2% | +206.7% | +705.0% |
| May 1993 | Jun 1993 | 1 | 1.7% | +252.3% | +723.3% |
| Apr 1997 | May 1997 | 3 | 7.3% | -26.6% | +92.7% |
| May 1997 | Apr 2002 | 256 | 85.5% | -35.4% | +88.7% |
| Jul 2002 | Jul 2002 | 1 | 6.3% | +71.4% | +744.8% |
| Apr 2005 | Jun 2005 | 11 | 14.9% | +104.9% | +540.8% |
| Jul 2005 | Aug 2005 | 1 | 7.7% | +107.6% | +510.8% |
| Oct 2008 | Nov 2008 | 5 | 30.2% | +116.2% | +214.6% |
| Apr 2009 | Apr 2009 | 1 | 0.4% | +28.9% | +144.7% |
| May 2010 | May 2010 | 1 | 0.1% | -9.6% | +101.9% |
| Jun 2010 | Sep 2010 | 11 | 10.4% | -2.5% | +106.0% |
| Jan 2011 | Apr 2016 | 276 | 75.6% | -24.2% | +99.2% |
| May 2016 | May 2016 | 1 | 7.7% | -0.2% | +665.9% |
| Aug 2016 | Sep 2016 | 4 | 3.2% | -1.2% | +653.5% |
| Oct 2016 | Jan 2017 | 17 | 23.5% | +21.6% | +820.4% |
| Feb 2017 | Apr 2017 | 6 | 10.6% | +8.0% | +861.4% |
| Apr 2017 | May 2017 | 1 | 2.9% | +13.5% | +828.3% |
| Aug 2018 | Feb 2019 | 27 | 25.2% | +60.3% | +928.5% |
| Feb 2019 | Jun 2019 | 16 | 13.1% | +56.4% | +909.3% |
| Mar 2020 | Mar 2020 | 2 | 12.0% | +96.4% | +833.7% |
| Apr 2022 | Nov 2023 | 82 | 42.2% | +2.5% | +517.9% |
| Jan 2024 | Mar 2024 | 8 | 9.4% | +93.9% | +453.6% |
| Average | 34 | — | +39.2% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is KGC below its 200-week moving average?
No. Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC) is currently 116.5% above its 200-week moving average of $13.45. It would need to fall to $13.45 to cross below the line.
What is KGC's 200-week moving average price?
Kinross Gold Corporation's 200-week moving average is $13.45 as of 2026-09-11. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when KGC drops below its 200-week moving average?
KGC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 31 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +39.2%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 34 weeks on average.
Is KGC a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about KGC as of 2026-09-11: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 56. Free cash flow yield is 8.7%. Return on equity is 37.0%. Price-to-book is 3.6x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does KGC compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in KGC would have grown to $1393, compared to $3170 for the S&P 500. That's 8.1% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. KGC has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does KGC pay a dividend?
Yes. Kinross Gold Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 55.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-11