KEY
KeyCorp Financial Services - Banking Investor Relations →
KeyCorp (KEY) closed at $22.59 as of 2026-07-31, trading 49.3% above its 200-week moving average of $15.13. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 50.1% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 60, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.2x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.96 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1973 weeks of data, KEY has crossed below its 200-week moving average 27 times. On average, these episodes lasted 19 weeks. Historically, investors who bought KEY at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +27.1%.
With a market cap of $24.2 billion, KEY is a large-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 10.3%. The stock trades at 1.4x book value.
Share count has increased 18.1% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 33.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in KEY would have grown to $452, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. KEY has returned 4.6% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -21.6% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: KEY vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After KEY Crosses Below the Line?
Across 23 historical episodes, buying KEY when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +19.7% after 12 months (median +21.0%), compared to +11.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 78% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +36.0% vs +25.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment KEY crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices KEY would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where KEY's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $18.76 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $19.80 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $20.95 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $22.25 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $23.72 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from KEY's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
KEY has crossed below its 200-week MA 27 times with an average 1-year return of +27.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1988 | Jan 1989 | 11 | 3.3% | +41.3% | +1537.1% |
| Aug 1990 | Nov 1990 | 14 | 12.2% | +96.6% | +1335.1% |
| Dec 1990 | Dec 1990 | 1 | 0.0% | +81.7% | +1262.6% |
| Jan 1991 | Jan 1991 | 1 | 1.0% | +104.5% | +1274.5% |
| Nov 1994 | Jan 1995 | 10 | 5.1% | +49.1% | +458.5% |
| Sep 1999 | Oct 1999 | 5 | 12.0% | -4.6% | +128.1% |
| Nov 1999 | Dec 2000 | 55 | 40.5% | -11.2% | +120.7% |
| Feb 2001 | Feb 2001 | 1 | 2.7% | -1.0% | +116.1% |
| Mar 2001 | Jul 2001 | 17 | 12.2% | +11.5% | +115.0% |
| Aug 2001 | Jan 2002 | 20 | 18.1% | +12.1% | +113.8% |
| Jan 2002 | Feb 2002 | 4 | 4.6% | +2.7% | +116.2% |
| Jul 2002 | Jul 2002 | 1 | 5.2% | +23.3% | +132.0% |
| Sep 2002 | Oct 2002 | 1 | 2.8% | +20.9% | +126.5% |
| Oct 2007 | Mar 2012 | 229 | 79.4% | -62.5% | +45.6% |
| May 2012 | Jun 2012 | 5 | 5.9% | +49.3% | +406.2% |
| Jan 2016 | Apr 2016 | 12 | 9.3% | +61.9% | +206.7% |
| May 2016 | May 2016 | 1 | 0.8% | +59.7% | +195.4% |
| Jun 2016 | Aug 2016 | 7 | 7.5% | +63.1% | +194.7% |
| Dec 2018 | Jan 2019 | 4 | 8.2% | +38.2% | +112.8% |
| Mar 2019 | Mar 2019 | 1 | 4.4% | -35.9% | +113.0% |
| Feb 2020 | Nov 2020 | 39 | 45.1% | +29.9% | +89.0% |
| Dec 2020 | Dec 2020 | 1 | 2.5% | +51.1% | +90.0% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 4 | 4.5% | -31.3% | +67.6% |
| Dec 2022 | Dec 2022 | 1 | 1.1% | -7.8% | +63.8% |
| Mar 2023 | Jul 2024 | 71 | 46.2% | +2.3% | +71.9% |
| Jul 2024 | Aug 2024 | 2 | 6.2% | +28.2% | +71.0% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 4 | 11.3% | +58.9% | +77.1% |
| Average | 19 | — | +27.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is KEY below its 200-week moving average?
No. KeyCorp (KEY) is currently 49.3% above its 200-week moving average of $15.13. It would need to fall to $15.13 to cross below the line.
What is KEY's 200-week moving average price?
KeyCorp's 200-week moving average is $15.13 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when KEY drops below its 200-week moving average?
KEY has crossed below its 200-week moving average 27 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +27.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 19 weeks on average.
Is KEY a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about KEY as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 60. Return on equity is 10.3%. Price-to-book is 1.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does KEY compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.6 years, $100 invested in KEY would have grown to $452, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. That's 4.6% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. KEY has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does KEY pay a dividend?
Yes. KeyCorp currently pays a dividend yield of 363.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31