KDP
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. Consumer Staples - Beverages Investor Relations →
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) closed at $31.12 as of 2026-07-31, trading 2.1% above its 200-week moving average of $30.46. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -2.6% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 59, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.3x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.12 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 903 weeks of data, KDP has crossed below its 200-week moving average 9 times. On average, these episodes lasted 11 weeks. Historically, investors who bought KDP at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +13.2%.
With a market cap of $42.3 billion, KDP is a large-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 6.3%. The stock trades at 1.7x book value.
Over the past 17.3 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in KDP would have grown to $1462, compared to $1163 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 16.7% vs 15.2% for the index — confirming KDP as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -15.4% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: KDP vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After KDP Crosses Below the Line?
Across 8 historical episodes, buying KDP when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +11.7% after 12 months (median +4.0%), compared to +28.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 71% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +16.4% vs +52.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment KDP crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices KDP would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where KDP's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-06.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $22.81 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $24.81 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $27.20 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $30.09 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $33.68 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from KDP's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
KDP has crossed below its 200-week MA 9 times with an average 1-year return of +13.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2009 | Apr 2009 | 2 | 5.5% | +71.3% | +1378.6% |
| May 2023 | Jul 2023 | 8 | 2.2% | +11.8% | +8.8% |
| Sep 2023 | Nov 2023 | 8 | 12.1% | +21.7% | +6.8% |
| Dec 2023 | Dec 2023 | 2 | 0.7% | +4.6% | +5.0% |
| Jan 2024 | Apr 2024 | 16 | 11.0% | +1.3% | +4.8% |
| Oct 2024 | Feb 2025 | 16 | 7.8% | -14.7% | +0.1% |
| Jun 2025 | Jun 2025 | 1 | 0.2% | -3.7% | -1.2% |
| Aug 2025 | Jun 2026 | 41 | 21.0% | N/A | +10.6% |
| Jul 2026 | Ongoing | 2+ | 2.6% | Ongoing | +4.9% |
| Average | 11 | — | +13.2% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is KDP below its 200-week moving average?
No. Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) is currently 2.1% above its 200-week moving average of $30.46. It would need to fall to $30.46 to cross below the line.
What is KDP's 200-week moving average price?
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $30.46 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when KDP drops below its 200-week moving average?
KDP has crossed below its 200-week moving average 9 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +13.2%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 11 weeks on average.
Is KDP a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about KDP as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 59. Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is 6.3%. Price-to-book is 1.7x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does KDP compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 17.3 years, $100 invested in KDP would have grown to $1462, compared to $1163 for the S&P 500. That's 16.7% annualized vs 15.2% for the index. KDP has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does KDP pay a dividend?
Yes. Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 296.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31