KBR
KBR, Inc. Industrials - Engineering & Construction Investor Relations → Deep dive →
KBR, Inc. (KBR) closed at $36.61 as of 2026-07-31, trading 29.1% below its 200-week moving average of $51.62. This places KBR in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -28.5% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 53, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.8x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.81 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 980 weeks of data, KBR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 13 times. On average, these episodes lasted 30 weeks. Historically, investors who bought KBR at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +29.0%.
With a market cap of $4.6 billion, KBR is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 5.9%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 27.5%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 3.1x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 7.4% over the past three years.
Over the past 18.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in KBR would have grown to $120, compared to $682 for the S&P 500. KBR has returned 1.0% annualized vs 10.7% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 16.6% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: KBR vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After KBR Crosses Below the Line?
Across 13 historical episodes, buying KBR when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +20.5% after 12 months (median +27.0%), compared to +18.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 62% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +38.2% vs +34.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment KBR crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices KBR would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where KBR's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $31.13 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $33.50 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $36.26 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $39.52 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $43.42 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from KBR's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
KBR has crossed below its 200-week MA 13 times with an average 1-year return of +29.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2008 | Apr 2008 | 5 | 11.5% | -49.5% | +62.7% |
| Jul 2008 | Aug 2010 | 110 | 63.0% | -29.1% | +63.0% |
| Sep 2011 | Oct 2011 | 2 | 4.2% | +28.3% | +84.8% |
| May 2012 | Jun 2012 | 1 | 1.1% | +50.9% | +85.6% |
| Jun 2012 | Jun 2012 | 1 | 2.4% | +36.1% | +87.7% |
| Jul 2012 | Jul 2012 | 2 | 4.0% | +40.9% | +89.9% |
| Feb 2014 | Sep 2017 | 185 | 49.9% | -40.1% | +59.5% |
| Feb 2018 | Apr 2018 | 7 | 9.5% | +24.7% | +172.6% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 3 | 13.6% | +89.6% | +151.3% |
| Mar 2020 | Mar 2020 | 2 | 23.2% | +87.5% | +116.9% |
| May 2020 | May 2020 | 1 | 0.3% | +127.7% | +108.9% |
| Feb 2025 | May 2025 | 12 | 10.1% | -19.5% | -28.0% |
| May 2025 | Ongoing | 63+ | 42.8% | Ongoing | -27.0% |
| Average | 30 | — | +29.0% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is KBR below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-07-31, KBR, Inc. (KBR) is trading 29.1% below its 200-week moving average of $51.62. The current price is $36.61.
What is KBR's 200-week moving average price?
KBR, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $51.62 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when KBR drops below its 200-week moving average?
KBR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 13 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +29.0%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 30 weeks on average.
Is KBR a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about KBR as of 2026-07-31: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 53. Free cash flow yield is 5.9%. Return on equity is 27.5%. Price-to-book is 3.1x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does KBR compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 18.8 years, $100 invested in KBR would have grown to $120, compared to $682 for the S&P 500. That's 1.0% annualized vs 10.7% for the index. KBR has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does KBR pay a dividend?
Yes. KBR, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 180.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31