KBH
KB Home Consumer Discretionary - Homebuilders Investor Relations →
KB Home (KBH) closed at $54.20 as of 2026-06-19, trading 0.7% below its 200-week moving average of $54.55. This places KBH in the below line zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -0.8% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 53, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.3x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.88 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2033 weeks of data, KBH has crossed below its 200-week moving average 26 times. On average, these episodes lasted 27 weeks. Historically, investors who bought KBH at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +37.2%.
With a market cap of $3.4 billion, KBH is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 12.6%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 8.9%. The stock trades at 0.9x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 24.8% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in KBH would have grown to $1012, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. KBH has returned 7.2% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: KBH vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After KBH Crosses Below the Line?
Across 22 historical episodes, buying KBH when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +43.1% after 12 months (median +46.0%), compared to +13.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 83% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +64.9% vs +21.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment KBH crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices KBH would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where KBH's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-06-23.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $46.05 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $50.37 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $55.59 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $62.02 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $70.13 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from KBH's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
KBH has crossed below its 200-week MA 26 times with an average 1-year return of +37.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 1987 | Aug 1987 | 4 | 9.6% | +2.3% | +2376.1% |
| Aug 1987 | Jun 1988 | 42 | 33.9% | -17.5% | +2235.0% |
| Jul 1988 | Nov 1988 | 20 | 17.8% | +140.7% | +2525.1% |
| Jul 1990 | Jan 1991 | 24 | 43.3% | +20.0% | +1768.8% |
| Aug 1991 | Aug 1991 | 2 | 4.1% | +45.7% | +1699.9% |
| Sep 1991 | Sep 1991 | 1 | 6.2% | +22.5% | +1722.7% |
| Aug 1992 | Oct 1992 | 8 | 8.8% | +76.0% | +1372.8% |
| Jun 1994 | Jan 1996 | 85 | 31.0% | -3.7% | +1026.2% |
| Apr 1996 | May 1997 | 59 | 24.0% | -8.0% | +1012.2% |
| Sep 1999 | Sep 1999 | 2 | 7.0% | +38.9% | +705.2% |
| Oct 1999 | Oct 1999 | 1 | 8.3% | +44.1% | +757.5% |
| Feb 2000 | Mar 2000 | 6 | 12.6% | +54.0% | +670.4% |
| Apr 2000 | Aug 2000 | 17 | 18.9% | +44.1% | +694.7% |
| Jul 2006 | Nov 2006 | 18 | 11.4% | -4.2% | +82.8% |
| Mar 2007 | Sep 2012 | 286 | 80.8% | -47.2% | +58.3% |
| Jan 2015 | Mar 2015 | 9 | 13.8% | -16.7% | +394.0% |
| Aug 2015 | Jul 2016 | 45 | 34.9% | +9.1% | +326.0% |
| Jul 2016 | Dec 2016 | 19 | 10.1% | +47.6% | +289.2% |
| Dec 2016 | Jan 2017 | 1 | 0.5% | +103.0% | +285.2% |
| Nov 2018 | Nov 2018 | 1 | 1.0% | +81.7% | +218.3% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 2 | 2.8% | +81.9% | +221.3% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 7 | 49.5% | +93.8% | +159.7% |
| Apr 2022 | Apr 2022 | 3 | 4.0% | +26.1% | +87.2% |
| Jun 2022 | Jan 2023 | 30 | 21.6% | +59.0% | +85.3% |
| Mar 2026 | Apr 2026 | 5 | 5.1% | N/A | +2.9% |
| Apr 2026 | Ongoing | 8+ | 16.6% | Ongoing | +5.9% |
| Average | 27 | — | +37.2% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is KBH below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-06-19, KB Home (KBH) is trading 0.7% below its 200-week moving average of $54.55. The current price is $54.20.
What is KBH's 200-week moving average price?
KB Home's 200-week moving average is $54.55 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when KBH drops below its 200-week moving average?
KBH has crossed below its 200-week moving average 26 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +37.2%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 27 weeks on average.
Is KBH a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about KBH as of 2026-06-19: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 53. Free cash flow yield is 12.6%. Return on equity is 8.9%. Price-to-book is 0.9x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does KBH compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in KBH would have grown to $1012, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 7.2% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. KBH has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does KBH pay a dividend?
Yes. KB Home currently pays a dividend yield of 186.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19