KALU
Kaiser Aluminum Corporation Basic Materials - Aluminum Investor Relations →
Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) closed at $150.13 as of 2026-09-18, trading 73.7% above its 200-week moving average of $86.42. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 82.7% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 35, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.20 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1006 weeks of data, KALU has crossed below its 200-week moving average 16 times. On average, these episodes lasted 19 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -0.7%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $2.5 billion, KALU is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 1.4%. Return on equity stands at 26.4%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 2.6x book value.
Over the past 19.3 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in KALU would have grown to $343, compared to $720 for the S&P 500. KALU has returned 6.6% annualized vs 10.7% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: KALU vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After KALU Crosses Below the Line?
Across 16 historical episodes, buying KALU when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +4.5% after 12 months (median -2.0%), compared to +12.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 44% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +18.6% vs +31.4% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment KALU crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices KALU would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where KALU's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-21.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $147.72 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $161.19 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $177.36 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $197.14 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $221.88 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | $2.66 | $5.53 | +107.8% |
| 2026-04-22 | $1.96 | $3.74 | +90.5% |
| 2026-02-18 | $1.56 | $1.53 | -2.0% |
| 2025-10-22 | $0.89 | $1.86 | +109.9% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from KALU's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
KALU has crossed below its 200-week MA 16 times with an average 1-year return of +-0.7% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2007 | Aug 2007 | 2 | 4.5% | -13.2% | +313.0% |
| Jan 2008 | Jan 2008 | 2 | 2.5% | -60.8% | +295.8% |
| May 2008 | Nov 2010 | 130 | 73.2% | -52.1% | +292.3% |
| Nov 2011 | Nov 2011 | 1 | 1.9% | +52.3% | +462.6% |
| Oct 2016 | Oct 2016 | 2 | 0.5% | +42.4% | +185.2% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 1 | 2.0% | +34.7% | +130.0% |
| Aug 2019 | Sep 2019 | 2 | 3.2% | -23.4% | +122.1% |
| Mar 2020 | Nov 2020 | 39 | 43.1% | +32.8% | +111.2% |
| Jan 2021 | Feb 2021 | 1 | 1.7% | +13.3% | +110.2% |
| Mar 2022 | Mar 2022 | 2 | 5.8% | -15.1% | +103.4% |
| Apr 2022 | Apr 2022 | 1 | 3.9% | -17.2% | +99.8% |
| Jun 2022 | Nov 2022 | 22 | 31.3% | -22.7% | +93.3% |
| Dec 2022 | Jan 2023 | 7 | 13.7% | -22.0% | +114.6% |
| Feb 2023 | Mar 2024 | 58 | 33.1% | -19.3% | +103.6% |
| Jul 2024 | Nov 2024 | 15 | 16.6% | +11.3% | +106.3% |
| Dec 2024 | Jun 2025 | 25 | 33.8% | +48.5% | +108.0% |
| Average | 19 | — | +-0.7% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is KALU below its 200-week moving average?
No. Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) is currently 73.7% above its 200-week moving average of $86.42. It would need to fall to $86.42 to cross below the line.
What is KALU's 200-week moving average price?
Kaiser Aluminum Corporation's 200-week moving average is $86.42 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when KALU drops below its 200-week moving average?
KALU has crossed below its 200-week moving average 16 times in our data. The average one-year return after these crossings was -0.7%, meaning the dips were not reliable buying signals for this particular stock. These episodes lasted 19 weeks on average.
Is KALU a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about KALU as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 35. Free cash flow yield is 1.4%. Return on equity is 26.4%. Price-to-book is 2.6x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does KALU compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 19.3 years, $100 invested in KALU would have grown to $343, compared to $720 for the S&P 500. That's 6.6% annualized vs 10.7% for the index. KALU has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does KALU pay a dividend?
Yes. Kaiser Aluminum Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 206.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18