KALU
Kaiser Aluminum Corporation Basic Materials - Aluminum Investor Relations →
Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) closed at $182.75 as of 2026-06-19, trading 128.0% above its 200-week moving average of $80.17. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 139.5% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 73, KALU is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.2x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.87 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 993 weeks of data, KALU has crossed below its 200-week moving average 15 times. On average, these episodes lasted 21 weeks. Historically, investors who bought KALU at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +0.6%.
With a market cap of $3.0 billion, KALU is a mid-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 18.8%, a solid level. The stock trades at 3.4x book value.
Over the past 19.1 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in KALU would have grown to $415, compared to $707 for the S&P 500. KALU has returned 7.7% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: KALU vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After KALU Crosses Below the Line?
Across 15 historical episodes, buying KALU when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +5.3% after 12 months (median -2.0%), compared to +11.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 47% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +11.1% vs +29.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment KALU crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices KALU would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where KALU's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-22.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $105.35 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $120.12 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $139.70 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $166.91 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $207.27 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from KALU's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
KALU has crossed below its 200-week MA 15 times with an average 1-year return of +0.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2007 | Aug 2007 | 2 | 4.5% | -13.2% | +400.5% |
| Jan 2008 | Jan 2008 | 2 | 2.8% | -60.8% | +379.8% |
| May 2008 | Nov 2010 | 130 | 73.2% | -52.1% | +375.5% |
| Nov 2011 | Nov 2011 | 1 | 1.9% | +52.3% | +581.9% |
| Oct 2016 | Oct 2016 | 2 | 1.1% | +43.3% | +247.9% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 1 | 2.0% | +34.7% | +178.8% |
| Aug 2019 | Sep 2019 | 2 | 3.1% | -23.4% | +169.2% |
| Mar 2020 | Nov 2020 | 39 | 43.1% | +32.8% | +156.0% |
| Jan 2021 | Feb 2021 | 1 | 1.6% | +13.3% | +154.8% |
| Mar 2022 | Mar 2022 | 2 | 5.7% | -15.1% | +146.6% |
| Apr 2022 | Apr 2022 | 1 | 3.9% | -17.2% | +142.1% |
| Jun 2022 | Nov 2022 | 22 | 31.2% | -22.7% | +134.3% |
| Dec 2022 | Mar 2024 | 67 | 33.9% | -22.0% | +160.1% |
| Jul 2024 | Nov 2024 | 15 | 16.5% | +11.3% | +152.2% |
| Dec 2024 | Jun 2025 | 25 | 33.7% | +48.5% | +152.1% |
| Average | 21 | — | +0.6% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is KALU below its 200-week moving average?
No. Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) is currently 128.0% above its 200-week moving average of $80.17. It would need to fall to $80.17 to cross below the line.
What is KALU's 200-week moving average price?
Kaiser Aluminum Corporation's 200-week moving average is $80.17 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when KALU drops below its 200-week moving average?
KALU has crossed below its 200-week moving average 15 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +0.6%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 21 weeks on average.
Is KALU a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about KALU as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 73 (overbought). Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is 18.8%. Price-to-book is 3.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does KALU compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 19.1 years, $100 invested in KALU would have grown to $415, compared to $707 for the S&P 500. That's 7.7% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. KALU has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19