KAI
Kadant Inc. Industrials - Specialty Industrial Machinery Investor Relations →
Kadant Inc. (KAI) closed at $307.50 as of 2026-07-31, trading 9.4% above its 200-week moving average of $280.98. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 11.4% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 49, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.9x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.99 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1712 weeks of data, KAI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 15 times. On average, these episodes lasted 29 weeks. Historically, investors who bought KAI at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +15.1%.
Return on equity stands at 11.1%. The stock trades at 3.6x book value.
Over the past 32.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in KAI would have grown to $1104, compared to $2854 for the S&P 500. KAI has returned 7.6% annualized vs 10.7% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 27.5% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: KAI vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After KAI Crosses Below the Line?
Across 15 historical episodes, buying KAI when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +13.2% after 12 months (median +17.0%), compared to +17.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 57% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +22.5% vs +37.4% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment KAI crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices KAI would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where KAI's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $282.28 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $297.82 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $315.16 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $334.65 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $356.71 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from KAI's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
KAI has crossed below its 200-week MA 15 times with an average 1-year return of +15.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1996 | Jan 1997 | 4 | 5.9% | +36.1% | +676.9% |
| Mar 1997 | Apr 1997 | 4 | 13.3% | +30.4% | +655.9% |
| Jun 1997 | Jun 1997 | 1 | 2.6% | +17.2% | +640.9% |
| Jul 1997 | Jul 1997 | 1 | 3.0% | -2.0% | +636.0% |
| Jun 1998 | Sep 2003 | 275 | 67.6% | -36.7% | +532.1% |
| Oct 2003 | Dec 2003 | 9 | 6.7% | +0.6% | +1842.3% |
| Apr 2005 | May 2005 | 1 | 0.0% | +37.3% | +1932.6% |
| Oct 2005 | Nov 2005 | 4 | 7.1% | +49.1% | +1891.0% |
| Jun 2008 | Aug 2008 | 7 | 9.2% | -50.3% | +1468.5% |
| Aug 2008 | Sep 2008 | 1 | 1.2% | -48.3% | +1390.9% |
| Sep 2008 | Nov 2010 | 111 | 70.0% | -36.7% | +1702.1% |
| Sep 2011 | Oct 2011 | 5 | 13.2% | +40.4% | +1942.1% |
| Nov 2011 | Nov 2011 | 1 | 5.0% | +29.4% | +1826.3% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 7 | 25.1% | +144.3% | +330.1% |
| Nov 2025 | Nov 2025 | 1 | 1.7% | N/A | +21.0% |
| Average | 29 | — | +15.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is KAI below its 200-week moving average?
No. Kadant Inc. (KAI) is currently 9.4% above its 200-week moving average of $280.98. It would need to fall to $280.98 to cross below the line.
What is KAI's 200-week moving average price?
Kadant Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $280.98 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when KAI drops below its 200-week moving average?
KAI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 15 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +15.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 29 weeks on average.
Is KAI a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about KAI as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 49. Return on equity is 11.1%. Price-to-book is 3.6x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does KAI compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 32.8 years, $100 invested in KAI would have grown to $1104, compared to $2854 for the S&P 500. That's 7.6% annualized vs 10.7% for the index. KAI has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does KAI pay a dividend?
Yes. Kadant Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 45.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31