JPM
JPMorgan Chase & Co. Financial Services - Banking Investor Relations →
JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) closed at $349.67 as of 2026-09-18, trading 57.8% above its 200-week moving average of $221.62. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 61.6% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 71, JPM is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.9x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.97 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2378 weeks of data, JPM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 28 times. On average, these episodes lasted 17 weeks. Historically, investors who bought JPM at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +25.9%.
With a market cap of $929.5 billion, JPM is a large-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 17.8%, a solid level. The stock trades at 2.6x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 8.1% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in JPM would have grown to $6775, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 13.3% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming JPM as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -100% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: JPM vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After JPM Crosses Below the Line?
Across 23 historical episodes, buying JPM when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +23.2% after 12 months (median +12.0%), compared to +12.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 67% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +18.5% vs +18.4% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment JPM crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. JPM currently has negative free cash flow, so price-based dislocation levels are not available. The score still tracks yield deviation from baseline.
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | $5.80 | $6.14 | +5.9% |
| 2026-04-14 | $5.51 | $5.94 | +7.8% |
| 2026-01-13 | $4.82 | $4.63 | -3.9% |
| 2025-10-14 | $4.87 | $5.07 | +4.0% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from JPM's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
JPM has crossed below its 200-week MA 28 times with an average 1-year return of +25.9% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1982 | Sep 1982 | 17 | 13.5% | +59.8% | +23986.8% |
| May 1984 | Jul 1984 | 5 | 5.2% | +86.4% | +20913.7% |
| Jul 1984 | Jul 1984 | 1 | 0.5% | +81.1% | +19714.4% |
| Oct 1987 | Mar 1989 | 74 | 42.1% | -3.2% | +11211.0% |
| Nov 1989 | Jun 1991 | 79 | 57.7% | -60.7% | +10436.7% |
| Jun 1991 | Jul 1991 | 3 | 8.3% | +67.1% | +13092.9% |
| Nov 1991 | Dec 1991 | 6 | 12.7% | +66.0% | +12822.4% |
| Oct 2000 | Dec 2000 | 9 | 13.6% | -14.4% | +1740.4% |
| Mar 2001 | Apr 2001 | 3 | 8.4% | -12.6% | +1638.4% |
| Jun 2001 | Sep 2003 | 121 | 60.0% | -21.0% | +1527.1% |
| Mar 2008 | Mar 2008 | 2 | 7.6% | -55.9% | +1381.8% |
| Jun 2008 | Jul 2008 | 7 | 16.2% | -8.3% | +1294.8% |
| Aug 2008 | Sep 2008 | 4 | 5.2% | +14.1% | +1334.1% |
| Oct 2008 | Aug 2009 | 42 | 59.1% | +19.1% | +1277.5% |
| Jan 2010 | Feb 2010 | 4 | 4.1% | +16.2% | +1259.1% |
| May 2010 | Jul 2010 | 11 | 10.5% | +9.2% | +1232.7% |
| Aug 2010 | Nov 2010 | 12 | 8.2% | -2.9% | +1315.7% |
| Nov 2010 | Nov 2010 | 2 | 5.1% | -20.6% | +1245.4% |
| Aug 2011 | Jan 2012 | 26 | 24.5% | -1.0% | +1292.4% |
| May 2012 | Aug 2012 | 13 | 14.0% | +36.3% | +1285.0% |
| Mar 2020 | Jun 2020 | 11 | 13.6% | +92.7% | +397.9% |
| Jun 2020 | Jul 2020 | 4 | 5.7% | +56.1% | +320.7% |
| Jul 2020 | Aug 2020 | 1 | 1.6% | +61.5% | +321.7% |
| Aug 2020 | Aug 2020 | 1 | 1.4% | +63.5% | +318.8% |
| Sep 2020 | Oct 2020 | 3 | 6.1% | +64.9% | +314.4% |
| Oct 2020 | Nov 2020 | 1 | 1.2% | +77.6% | +311.9% |
| May 2022 | May 2022 | 1 | 1.3% | +22.6% | +231.2% |
| Jun 2022 | Oct 2022 | 18 | 12.5% | +31.0% | +243.9% |
| Average | 17 | — | +25.9% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is JPM below its 200-week moving average?
No. JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) is currently 57.8% above its 200-week moving average of $221.62. It would need to fall to $221.62 to cross below the line.
What is JPM's 200-week moving average price?
JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s 200-week moving average is $221.62 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when JPM drops below its 200-week moving average?
JPM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 28 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +25.9%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 17 weeks on average.
Is JPM a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about JPM as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 71 (overbought). Return on equity is 17.8%. Price-to-book is 2.6x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does JPM compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in JPM would have grown to $6775, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That's 13.3% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. JPM has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does JPM pay a dividend?
Yes. JPMorgan Chase & Co. currently pays a dividend yield of 189.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18