JCI
Johnson Controls International plc Industrials - Building Products & Equipment Investor Relations →
Johnson Controls International plc (JCI) closed at $143.28 as of 2026-09-18, trading 66.8% above its 200-week moving average of $85.90. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 70.8% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 49, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.89 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1985 weeks of data, JCI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 20 times. On average, these episodes lasted 26 weeks. Historically, investors who bought JCI at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +6.4%.
With a market cap of $86.8 billion, JCI is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.4%. Return on equity stands at 14.3%. The stock trades at 6.4x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 11.3% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in JCI would have grown to $2607, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. JCI has returned 10.1% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -13.7% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: JCI vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After JCI Crosses Below the Line?
Across 19 historical episodes, buying JCI when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +7.6% after 12 months (median +18.0%), compared to +8.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 53% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +21.9% vs +22.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment JCI crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices JCI would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where JCI's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-04.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $139.37 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $143.01 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $146.84 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $150.89 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $155.16 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | $1.30 | $1.42 | +9.0% |
| 2026-05-06 | $1.12 | $1.19 | +6.5% |
| 2026-02-04 | $0.84 | $0.89 | +5.7% |
| 2025-11-05 | $1.20 | $1.26 | +4.7% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from JCI's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
JCI has crossed below its 200-week MA 20 times with an average 1-year return of +6.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1990 | Nov 1990 | 4 | 2.6% | -12.2% | +3108.1% |
| Aug 1991 | Aug 1991 | 1 | 0.0% | -21.0% | +2900.6% |
| Sep 1991 | Jan 1993 | 70 | 28.5% | -10.5% | +2948.1% |
| Feb 1993 | Feb 1993 | 1 | 0.2% | +24.8% | +2707.4% |
| May 1993 | Aug 1993 | 13 | 7.5% | +16.9% | +2905.8% |
| Sep 2001 | Sep 2001 | 1 | 2.6% | -63.3% | +250.0% |
| Jan 2002 | Oct 2004 | 143 | 77.2% | -54.9% | +300.6% |
| Jul 2006 | Jul 2006 | 1 | 0.3% | -41.4% | +448.6% |
| Jul 2007 | Dec 2010 | 179 | 76.6% | -25.3% | +771.5% |
| Sep 2015 | Oct 2015 | 1 | 0.0% | +32.9% | +468.9% |
| Nov 2015 | Feb 2016 | 12 | 13.6% | +46.0% | +472.9% |
| Aug 2017 | Aug 2017 | 1 | 0.1% | +6.2% | +371.6% |
| Nov 2017 | Nov 2017 | 3 | 2.4% | -4.3% | +370.2% |
| Feb 2018 | Feb 2018 | 1 | 2.3% | -3.5% | +375.2% |
| Feb 2018 | Jul 2018 | 22 | 8.8% | +0.2% | +375.4% |
| Sep 2018 | Mar 2019 | 23 | 17.4% | +28.3% | +382.1% |
| Feb 2020 | Jul 2020 | 20 | 32.5% | +56.9% | +346.0% |
| Jul 2022 | Jul 2022 | 1 | 0.2% | +50.0% | +228.3% |
| Sep 2023 | Dec 2023 | 12 | 10.7% | +48.5% | +180.7% |
| Jan 2024 | Feb 2024 | 3 | 1.1% | +52.9% | +173.7% |
| Average | 26 | — | +6.4% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is JCI below its 200-week moving average?
No. Johnson Controls International plc (JCI) is currently 66.8% above its 200-week moving average of $85.90. It would need to fall to $85.90 to cross below the line.
What is JCI's 200-week moving average price?
Johnson Controls International plc's 200-week moving average is $85.90 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when JCI drops below its 200-week moving average?
JCI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 20 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +6.4%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 26 weeks on average.
Is JCI a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about JCI as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 49. Free cash flow yield is 3.4%. Return on equity is 14.3%. Price-to-book is 6.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does JCI compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in JCI would have grown to $2607, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That's 10.1% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. JCI has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does JCI pay a dividend?
Yes. Johnson Controls International plc currently pays a dividend yield of 112.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18