IX
ORIX Corporation Financial Services - Financial Conglomerates Investor Relations →
ORIX Corporation (IX) closed at $40.15 as of 2026-06-19, trading 87.3% above its 200-week moving average of $21.43. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 81.5% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 79, IX is in overbought territory.
Over the past 14 weeks, down-weeks have had more trading volume than up-weeks (0.69 buyers-vs-sellers ratio). That means when people are active, they're more often selling than buying. Sellers are still more in control than buyers.
Over the past 1400 weeks of data, IX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 21 times. On average, these episodes lasted 24 weeks. Historically, investors who bought IX at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +5.4%.
With a market cap of $44.0 billion, IX is a large-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 10.4%. The stock trades at 1.6x book value.
Over the past 26.9 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in IX would have grown to $440, compared to $907 for the S&P 500. IX has returned 5.7% annualized vs 8.5% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -100% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: IX vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After IX Crosses Below the Line?
Across 21 historical episodes, buying IX when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +6.0% after 12 months (median +10.0%), compared to +11.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 71% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +9.7% vs +27.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment IX crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from IX's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
IX has crossed below its 200-week MA 21 times with an average 1-year return of +5.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2000 | May 2001 | 25 | 22.3% | -1.3% | +355.7% |
| Jun 2001 | Aug 2001 | 10 | 16.2% | -16.5% | +334.0% |
| Aug 2001 | Feb 2004 | 128 | 57.0% | -28.2% | +337.0% |
| Oct 2007 | Nov 2007 | 4 | 13.9% | -45.8% | +122.9% |
| Dec 2007 | Jul 2011 | 186 | 90.0% | -66.1% | +140.9% |
| Aug 2011 | Jan 2012 | 23 | 20.5% | +1.1% | +351.5% |
| Jan 2015 | Feb 2015 | 4 | 5.3% | +12.6% | +259.0% |
| Aug 2015 | Sep 2015 | 3 | 3.1% | +19.5% | +236.2% |
| Jan 2016 | Jan 2016 | 3 | 2.5% | +21.4% | +218.9% |
| Feb 2016 | Feb 2016 | 3 | 13.1% | +30.3% | +259.1% |
| May 2016 | Aug 2016 | 13 | 9.8% | +11.3% | +206.7% |
| Aug 2016 | Aug 2016 | 1 | 2.7% | +16.6% | +206.8% |
| Sep 2016 | Sep 2016 | 1 | 0.1% | +12.6% | +197.4% |
| Oct 2016 | Oct 2016 | 3 | 2.8% | +15.5% | +201.5% |
| Dec 2018 | Jan 2019 | 6 | 11.4% | +11.5% | +175.6% |
| Jan 2019 | Sep 2019 | 32 | 9.3% | +12.6% | +181.2% |
| Sep 2019 | Oct 2019 | 5 | 2.6% | -14.1% | +176.7% |
| Mar 2020 | Nov 2020 | 37 | 32.9% | +28.1% | +216.5% |
| Dec 2020 | Dec 2020 | 3 | 3.5% | +32.7% | +181.3% |
| Sep 2022 | Jan 2023 | 16 | 12.3% | +26.9% | +169.6% |
| Mar 2023 | Mar 2023 | 1 | 1.6% | +33.7% | +164.1% |
| Average | 24 | — | +5.4% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is IX below its 200-week moving average?
No. ORIX Corporation (IX) is currently 87.3% above its 200-week moving average of $21.43. It would need to fall to $21.43 to cross below the line.
What is IX's 200-week moving average price?
ORIX Corporation's 200-week moving average is $21.43 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when IX drops below its 200-week moving average?
IX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 21 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +5.4%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 24 weeks on average.
Is IX a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about IX as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 79 (overbought). Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is 10.4%. Price-to-book is 1.6x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does IX compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 26.9 years, $100 invested in IX would have grown to $440, compared to $907 for the S&P 500. That's 5.7% annualized vs 8.5% for the index. IX has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does IX pay a dividend?
Yes. ORIX Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 251.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19