IVR
Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. Real Estate - REIT - Mortgage Investor Relations →
Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. (IVR) closed at $6.45 as of 2026-09-18, trading 2.3% above its 200-week moving average of $6.30. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 7.9% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 22, IVR is in oversold territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.9x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.90 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 850 weeks of data, IVR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 6 times. On average, these episodes lasted 60 weeks. Historically, investors who bought IVR at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +13.4%.
With a market cap of $703 million, IVR is a small-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 14.1%. The stock trades at 0.8x book value.
Share count has increased 85.5% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 16.3 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in IVR would have grown to $30, compared to $982 for the S&P 500. IVR has returned -7.0% annualized vs 15.0% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -7.1% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: IVR vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After IVR Crosses Below the Line?
Across 6 historical episodes, buying IVR when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +46.0% after 12 months (median +34.0%), compared to +23.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 100% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +24.8% vs +35.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment IVR crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices IVR would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where IVR's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-29.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $6.83 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $7.15 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $7.51 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $7.90 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $8.34 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | $0.52 | $0.50 | -3.3% |
| 2026-04-30 | $0.15 | $-0.28 | -284.8% |
| 2026-01-29 | $0.56 | $0.56 | +0.3% |
| 2025-10-30 | $0.58 | $0.58 | +0.1% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from IVR's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
IVR has crossed below its 200-week MA 6 times with an average 1-year return of +13.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2011 | Feb 2012 | 27 | 20.2% | +37.1% | -70.7% |
| Aug 2013 | Aug 2013 | 1 | 1.4% | +31.7% | -75.1% |
| Nov 2013 | Nov 2013 | 1 | 0.6% | +24.4% | -75.7% |
| Dec 2013 | Dec 2013 | 2 | 2.3% | +25.8% | -75.3% |
| Aug 2015 | May 2016 | 37 | 24.7% | +26.1% | -78.7% |
| Mar 2020 | Nov 2025 | 295 | 85.1% | -64.4% | -84.5% |
| Average | 60 | — | +13.4% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is IVR below its 200-week moving average?
No. Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. (IVR) is currently 2.3% above its 200-week moving average of $6.30. It would need to fall to $6.30 to cross below the line.
What is IVR's 200-week moving average price?
Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $6.30 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when IVR drops below its 200-week moving average?
IVR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 6 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +13.4%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 60 weeks on average.
Is IVR a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about IVR as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 22 (oversold). Return on equity is 14.1%. Price-to-book is 0.8x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does IVR compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 16.3 years, $100 invested in IVR would have grown to $30, compared to $982 for the S&P 500. That's -7.0% annualized vs 15.0% for the index. IVR has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does IVR pay a dividend?
Yes. Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 2233.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18