ITW
Illinois Tool Works Inc. Industrials - Machinery Investor Relations →
Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW) closed at $264.09 as of 2026-06-19, trading 11.7% above its 200-week moving average of $236.40. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 9.1% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 49, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.09 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2731 weeks of data, ITW has crossed below its 200-week moving average 36 times. On average, these episodes lasted 10 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ITW at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +17.3%.
With a market cap of $76.0 billion, ITW is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.9%. Return on equity stands at 96.8%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 23.5x book value.
ITW is a Dividend Aristocrat, having increased its dividend for 25 or more consecutive years. The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 5.4% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ITW would have grown to $6001, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 13.0% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming ITW as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: ITW vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ITW Crosses Below the Line?
Across 23 historical episodes, buying ITW when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +20.6% after 12 months (median +15.0%), compared to +4.9% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 91% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +38.2% vs +12.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ITW crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices ITW would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where ITW's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-29.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $239.46 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $254.34 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $271.19 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $290.43 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $312.61 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from ITW's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
ITW has crossed below its 200-week MA 36 times with an average 1-year return of +17.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1974 | Jun 1974 | 15 | 17.1% | -9.8% | +72189.6% |
| Jul 1974 | Jul 1974 | 2 | 10.5% | +8.9% | +68968.7% |
| Aug 1974 | Apr 1975 | 36 | 40.6% | -0.5% | +64492.1% |
| Aug 1975 | Feb 1976 | 25 | 17.2% | +0.5% | +70010.0% |
| May 1976 | Jun 1976 | 3 | 1.2% | -2.5% | +68628.5% |
| Aug 1976 | Dec 1976 | 16 | 11.0% | -9.0% | +69659.4% |
| Feb 1977 | May 1978 | 68 | 22.1% | -16.5% | +69659.4% |
| Jun 1978 | Jul 1978 | 2 | 2.2% | +24.7% | +74910.1% |
| Oct 1978 | Dec 1978 | 9 | 9.6% | +4.3% | +75315.7% |
| Jan 1979 | Mar 1979 | 8 | 7.4% | +8.2% | +71816.9% |
| Oct 1979 | Nov 1979 | 4 | 1.9% | +14.1% | +72566.1% |
| Feb 1980 | Jul 1980 | 21 | 13.2% | +13.5% | +72566.1% |
| Mar 1982 | Apr 1982 | 8 | 5.9% | +60.6% | +66976.4% |
| Feb 2000 | Mar 2000 | 3 | 3.8% | +19.8% | +1662.5% |
| Mar 2000 | Apr 2000 | 1 | 0.4% | +4.3% | +1582.7% |
| Jun 2000 | Jul 2000 | 2 | 2.6% | +20.3% | +1569.9% |
| Jul 2000 | Aug 2000 | 3 | 3.6% | +18.3% | +1574.0% |
| Aug 2000 | Oct 2000 | 6 | 7.6% | +13.2% | +1508.4% |
| Oct 2000 | Dec 2000 | 10 | 12.5% | +6.2% | +1604.4% |
| Mar 2001 | Apr 2001 | 4 | 5.5% | +28.7% | +1433.8% |
| Sep 2001 | Nov 2001 | 10 | 20.3% | +11.0% | +1421.1% |
| Nov 2001 | Dec 2001 | 1 | 0.5% | +12.3% | +1379.2% |
| Jul 2002 | Aug 2002 | 3 | 6.6% | +16.6% | +1428.8% |
| Sep 2002 | Nov 2002 | 9 | 7.3% | +14.4% | +1320.1% |
| Jan 2003 | Apr 2003 | 12 | 9.3% | +32.6% | +1321.1% |
| Jun 2008 | Jul 2008 | 3 | 1.4% | -16.6% | +785.8% |
| Sep 2008 | Sep 2009 | 50 | 40.1% | -2.2% | +811.9% |
| Sep 2009 | Oct 2009 | 2 | 4.6% | +14.4% | +832.8% |
| Jan 2010 | Feb 2010 | 3 | 2.3% | +29.0% | +792.8% |
| Jun 2010 | Jul 2010 | 4 | 5.9% | +43.9% | +840.0% |
| Aug 2010 | Aug 2010 | 3 | 3.8% | +7.6% | +792.4% |
| Aug 2011 | Aug 2011 | 1 | 5.2% | +49.3% | +804.3% |
| Sep 2011 | Oct 2011 | 4 | 4.2% | +46.7% | +779.8% |
| Nov 2011 | Nov 2011 | 1 | 1.1% | +46.3% | +771.3% |
| Mar 2020 | Mar 2020 | 1 | 8.8% | +78.3% | +143.3% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 1 | 0.8% | +30.5% | +59.8% |
| Average | 10 | — | +17.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ITW below its 200-week moving average?
No. Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW) is currently 11.7% above its 200-week moving average of $236.40. It would need to fall to $236.40 to cross below the line.
What is ITW's 200-week moving average price?
Illinois Tool Works Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $236.40 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when ITW drops below its 200-week moving average?
ITW has crossed below its 200-week moving average 36 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +17.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 10 weeks on average.
Is ITW a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about ITW as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 49. Free cash flow yield is 2.9%. Return on equity is 96.8%. Price-to-book is 23.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does ITW compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in ITW would have grown to $6001, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 13.0% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. ITW has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19