ITW
Illinois Tool Works Inc. Industrials - Machinery Investor Relations →
Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW) closed at $293.57 as of 2026-02-02, trading 27.7% above its 200-week moving average of $229.90. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 13.9% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 80, ITW is in overbought territory.
Over the past 2712 weeks of data, ITW has crossed below its 200-week moving average 36 times. On average, these episodes lasted 10 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ITW at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +17.3%.
With a market cap of $85.6 billion, ITW is a large-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 93.7%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 26.4x book value.
ITW is a Dividend Aristocrat, having increased its dividend for 25 or more consecutive years. The current yield is 219.00%. The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 6.0% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ITW would have grown to $6629, compared to $2849 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 13.5% vs 10.6% for the index — confirming ITW as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Growth of $100: ITW vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ITW Crosses Below the Line?
Across 23 historical episodes, buying ITW when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +20.6% after 12 months (median +15.0%), compared to +4.9% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 91% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +38.2% vs +12.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ITW crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
ITW has crossed below its 200-week MA 36 times with an average 1-year return of +17.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1974 | Jun 1974 | 15 | 17.1% | -9.8% | +79754.2% |
| Jul 1974 | Jul 1974 | 2 | 10.5% | +8.9% | +76196.3% |
| Aug 1974 | Apr 1975 | 36 | 40.6% | -0.5% | +71251.1% |
| Aug 1975 | Feb 1976 | 25 | 17.2% | +0.5% | +77346.5% |
| May 1976 | Jun 1976 | 3 | 1.2% | -2.5% | +75820.4% |
| Aug 1976 | Dec 1976 | 16 | 11.0% | -9.0% | +76959.3% |
| Feb 1977 | May 1978 | 68 | 22.1% | -16.5% | +76959.3% |
| Jun 1978 | Jul 1978 | 2 | 2.2% | +24.7% | +82759.4% |
| Oct 1978 | Dec 1978 | 9 | 9.6% | +4.3% | +83207.4% |
| Jan 1979 | Mar 1979 | 8 | 7.4% | +8.2% | +79342.5% |
| Oct 1979 | Nov 1979 | 4 | 1.9% | +14.1% | +80170.1% |
| Feb 1980 | Jul 1980 | 21 | 13.2% | +13.5% | +80170.1% |
| Mar 1982 | Apr 1982 | 8 | 5.9% | +60.6% | +73995.4% |
| Feb 2000 | Mar 2000 | 3 | 3.8% | +19.8% | +1846.9% |
| Mar 2000 | Apr 2000 | 1 | 0.4% | +4.3% | +1758.8% |
| Jun 2000 | Jul 2000 | 2 | 2.6% | +20.3% | +1744.6% |
| Jul 2000 | Aug 2000 | 3 | 3.6% | +18.3% | +1749.2% |
| Aug 2000 | Oct 2000 | 6 | 7.6% | +13.2% | +1676.7% |
| Oct 2000 | Dec 2000 | 10 | 12.5% | +6.2% | +1782.8% |
| Mar 2001 | Apr 2001 | 4 | 5.5% | +28.7% | +1594.3% |
| Sep 2001 | Nov 2001 | 10 | 20.3% | +11.0% | +1580.3% |
| Nov 2001 | Dec 2001 | 1 | 0.5% | +12.3% | +1534.0% |
| Jul 2002 | Aug 2002 | 3 | 6.6% | +16.6% | +1588.7% |
| Sep 2002 | Nov 2002 | 9 | 7.3% | +14.4% | +1468.7% |
| Jan 2003 | Apr 2003 | 12 | 9.3% | +32.6% | +1469.8% |
| Jun 2008 | Jul 2008 | 3 | 1.4% | -16.6% | +878.4% |
| Sep 2008 | Sep 2009 | 50 | 40.1% | -2.2% | +907.4% |
| Sep 2009 | Oct 2009 | 2 | 4.6% | +14.4% | +930.4% |
| Jan 2010 | Feb 2010 | 3 | 2.3% | +29.0% | +886.2% |
| Jun 2010 | Jul 2010 | 4 | 5.9% | +43.9% | +938.4% |
| Aug 2010 | Aug 2010 | 3 | 3.8% | +7.6% | +885.8% |
| Aug 2011 | Aug 2011 | 1 | 5.2% | +49.3% | +898.9% |
| Sep 2011 | Oct 2011 | 4 | 4.2% | +46.7% | +871.9% |
| Nov 2011 | Nov 2011 | 1 | 1.1% | +46.3% | +862.5% |
| Mar 2020 | Mar 2020 | 1 | 8.8% | +78.3% | +168.8% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 1 | 0.8% | +30.5% | +76.5% |
| Average | 10 | — | +17.3% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02