ITUB
Itaú Unibanco Holding S.A. Financial Services - Banks - Regional Investor Relations →
Itaú Unibanco Holding S.A. (ITUB) closed at $7.79 as of 2026-06-19, trading 54.1% above its 200-week moving average of $5.05. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 58.8% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 49, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.0x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.91 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1220 weeks of data, ITUB has crossed below its 200-week moving average 17 times. On average, these episodes lasted 22 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ITUB at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +21.7%.
With a market cap of $85.9 billion, ITUB is a large-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 21.8%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 2.1x book value.
Over the past 23.4 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ITUB would have grown to $3444, compared to $1350 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 16.3% vs 11.8% for the index — confirming ITUB as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -39.1% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: ITUB vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ITUB Crosses Below the Line?
Across 17 historical episodes, buying ITUB when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +17.6% after 12 months (median +16.0%), compared to +16.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 59% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +45.9% vs +37.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ITUB crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from ITUB's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
ITUB has crossed below its 200-week MA 17 times with an average 1-year return of +21.7% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2003 | Mar 2003 | 6 | 20.8% | +137.7% | +3387.4% |
| Oct 2008 | Apr 2009 | 29 | 44.2% | +115.3% | +408.1% |
| May 2009 | May 2009 | 1 | 2.7% | +52.7% | +269.3% |
| Aug 2011 | Oct 2011 | 11 | 17.3% | -7.6% | +163.2% |
| Nov 2011 | Nov 2011 | 2 | 13.2% | -12.5% | +173.8% |
| Dec 2011 | Dec 2011 | 1 | 1.2% | -9.7% | +159.2% |
| Apr 2012 | Apr 2014 | 104 | 29.2% | +5.0% | +163.2% |
| Oct 2014 | Oct 2014 | 1 | 0.6% | -46.5% | +156.0% |
| Dec 2014 | Apr 2015 | 19 | 19.2% | -39.4% | +173.4% |
| May 2015 | Aug 2016 | 63 | 49.6% | -20.9% | +194.8% |
| Sep 2016 | Sep 2016 | 1 | 0.1% | +52.0% | +195.4% |
| Dec 2016 | Dec 2016 | 1 | 3.4% | +39.4% | +206.0% |
| Feb 2020 | Mar 2022 | 107 | 49.4% | -33.1% | +120.8% |
| Apr 2022 | May 2022 | 4 | 9.0% | +13.2% | +148.1% |
| Jun 2022 | Aug 2022 | 9 | 18.6% | +25.2% | +148.8% |
| Nov 2022 | Jan 2023 | 6 | 7.1% | +35.6% | +140.6% |
| Feb 2023 | Mar 2023 | 4 | 6.2% | +62.4% | +148.7% |
| Average | 22 | — | +21.7% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ITUB below its 200-week moving average?
No. Itaú Unibanco Holding S.A. (ITUB) is currently 54.1% above its 200-week moving average of $5.05. It would need to fall to $5.05 to cross below the line.
What is ITUB's 200-week moving average price?
Itaú Unibanco Holding S.A.'s 200-week moving average is $5.05 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when ITUB drops below its 200-week moving average?
ITUB has crossed below its 200-week moving average 17 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +21.7%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 22 weeks on average.
Is ITUB a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about ITUB as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 49. Return on equity is 21.8%. Price-to-book is 2.1x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does ITUB compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 23.4 years, $100 invested in ITUB would have grown to $3444, compared to $1350 for the S&P 500. That's 16.3% annualized vs 11.8% for the index. ITUB has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19