ITUB
Itaú Unibanco Holding S.A. Financial Services - Banks - Regional Investor Relations →
Itaú Unibanco Holding S.A. (ITUB) closed at $8.46 as of 2026-07-31, trading 64.0% above its 200-week moving average of $5.16. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 61.3% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 46, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.8x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.96 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1226 weeks of data, ITUB has crossed below its 200-week moving average 17 times. On average, these episodes lasted 22 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ITUB at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +21.7%.
With a market cap of $93.2 billion, ITUB is a large-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 21.8%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 2.3x book value.
Over the past 23.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ITUB would have grown to $3777, compared to $1351 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 16.7% vs 11.7% for the index — confirming ITUB as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -39.1% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: ITUB vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ITUB Crosses Below the Line?
Across 17 historical episodes, buying ITUB when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +17.4% after 12 months (median +16.0%), compared to +16.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 59% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +45.8% vs +37.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ITUB crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from ITUB's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
ITUB has crossed below its 200-week MA 17 times with an average 1-year return of +21.7% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2003 | Mar 2003 | 6 | 20.8% | +137.7% | +3724.0% |
| Oct 2008 | Apr 2009 | 29 | 44.2% | +115.3% | +457.2% |
| May 2009 | May 2009 | 1 | 2.8% | +52.7% | +305.0% |
| Aug 2011 | Oct 2011 | 11 | 17.3% | -6.8% | +188.5% |
| Nov 2011 | Nov 2011 | 2 | 13.2% | -12.5% | +200.2% |
| Dec 2011 | Dec 2011 | 1 | 1.3% | -9.7% | +184.2% |
| Apr 2012 | Apr 2014 | 104 | 29.2% | +5.0% | +188.6% |
| Oct 2014 | Oct 2014 | 1 | 0.6% | -46.5% | +180.7% |
| Dec 2014 | Apr 2015 | 19 | 19.3% | -39.0% | +199.8% |
| May 2015 | Aug 2016 | 63 | 49.7% | -20.9% | +223.2% |
| Sep 2016 | Sep 2016 | 1 | 0.1% | +52.0% | +223.9% |
| Dec 2016 | Dec 2016 | 1 | 3.5% | +39.9% | +235.5% |
| Feb 2020 | Mar 2022 | 107 | 49.5% | -34.7% | +135.0% |
| Apr 2022 | May 2022 | 4 | 9.0% | +13.2% | +172.1% |
| Jun 2022 | Aug 2022 | 9 | 18.7% | +25.2% | +172.8% |
| Nov 2022 | Jan 2023 | 6 | 7.2% | +35.6% | +163.8% |
| Feb 2023 | Mar 2023 | 4 | 5.6% | +62.3% | +172.6% |
| Average | 22 | — | +21.7% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ITUB below its 200-week moving average?
No. Itaú Unibanco Holding S.A. (ITUB) is currently 64.0% above its 200-week moving average of $5.16. It would need to fall to $5.16 to cross below the line.
What is ITUB's 200-week moving average price?
Itaú Unibanco Holding S.A.'s 200-week moving average is $5.16 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when ITUB drops below its 200-week moving average?
ITUB has crossed below its 200-week moving average 17 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +21.7%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 22 weeks on average.
Is ITUB a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about ITUB as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 46. Return on equity is 21.8%. Price-to-book is 2.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does ITUB compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 23.5 years, $100 invested in ITUB would have grown to $3777, compared to $1351 for the S&P 500. That's 16.7% annualized vs 11.7% for the index. ITUB has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does ITUB pay a dividend?
Yes. Itaú Unibanco Holding S.A. currently pays a dividend yield of 206.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31