IRWD
Ironwood Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Healthcare - Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic Investor Relations →
Ironwood Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (IRWD) closed at $3.54 as of 2026-06-19, trading 46.0% below its 200-week moving average of $6.55. This places IRWD in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -44.7% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 52, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 14 weeks, down-weeks have had more trading volume than up-weeks (0.63 buyers-vs-sellers ratio). That means when people are active, they're more often selling than buying. Sellers are still more in control than buyers.
Over the past 806 weeks of data, IRWD has crossed below its 200-week moving average 25 times. On average, these episodes lasted 19 weeks. Historically, investors who bought IRWD at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +5.1%.
With a market cap of $583 million, IRWD is a small-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 8.8%, which is notably high. The stock trades at -2.7x book value.
Share count has increased 5.9% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 15.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in IRWD would have grown to $37, compared to $763 for the S&P 500. IRWD has returned -6.2% annualized vs 14.0% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -22.6% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: IRWD vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After IRWD Crosses Below the Line?
Across 25 historical episodes, buying IRWD when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +1.3% after 12 months (median +1.0%), compared to +13.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 52% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was -5.9% vs +30.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment IRWD crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices IRWD would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where IRWD's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-06.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $2.58 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $2.95 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $3.45 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $4.15 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $5.20 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from IRWD's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
IRWD has crossed below its 200-week MA 25 times with an average 1-year return of +5.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2011 | Feb 2011 | 4 | 5.0% | +6.8% | -62.7% |
| Aug 2011 | Oct 2011 | 11 | 13.7% | -7.5% | -66.1% |
| Nov 2011 | Jan 2012 | 10 | 13.3% | -0.8% | -65.1% |
| Apr 2012 | Jun 2012 | 8 | 10.4% | +43.7% | -65.9% |
| Jul 2012 | Sep 2012 | 6 | 8.6% | +0.6% | -66.2% |
| Oct 2012 | Jan 2013 | 12 | 17.2% | -15.3% | -66.5% |
| May 2013 | May 2013 | 1 | 0.3% | +8.4% | -67.1% |
| Jun 2013 | Sep 2013 | 12 | 22.7% | +24.7% | -64.1% |
| Sep 2013 | Jan 2014 | 16 | 27.2% | +4.1% | -65.1% |
| Feb 2014 | Feb 2014 | 1 | 0.3% | +27.0% | -66.4% |
| Mar 2014 | May 2014 | 6 | 22.2% | +30.9% | -64.7% |
| Aug 2014 | Aug 2014 | 1 | 5.9% | -10.0% | -65.3% |
| Sep 2014 | Oct 2014 | 5 | 7.9% | -7.5% | -66.5% |
| Jun 2015 | May 2016 | 51 | 35.1% | +6.0% | -65.2% |
| Jun 2016 | Jun 2016 | 2 | 4.0% | +40.2% | -66.3% |
| Jan 2018 | Feb 2018 | 2 | 3.0% | -0.7% | -68.9% |
| Oct 2018 | Dec 2019 | 57 | 36.3% | -12.2% | -70.0% |
| Jan 2020 | Jun 2021 | 74 | 27.0% | -16.4% | -71.4% |
| Nov 2021 | Jan 2022 | 7 | 6.4% | -0.5% | -69.7% |
| Jan 2022 | Mar 2022 | 7 | 8.0% | +3.8% | -67.8% |
| May 2022 | Jun 2022 | 3 | 0.6% | -8.1% | -68.9% |
| Aug 2022 | Oct 2022 | 10 | 9.5% | -17.1% | -68.2% |
| Feb 2023 | Feb 2023 | 1 | 0.3% | +37.2% | -68.3% |
| Mar 2023 | Dec 2023 | 40 | 26.8% | -15.6% | -66.8% |
| Feb 2024 | Ongoing | 121+ | 93.8% | Ongoing | -61.0% |
| Average | 19 | — | +5.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is IRWD below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-06-19, Ironwood Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (IRWD) is trading 46.0% below its 200-week moving average of $6.55. The current price is $3.54.
What is IRWD's 200-week moving average price?
Ironwood Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $6.55 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when IRWD drops below its 200-week moving average?
IRWD has crossed below its 200-week moving average 25 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +5.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 19 weeks on average.
Is IRWD a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about IRWD as of 2026-06-19: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 52. Free cash flow yield is 8.8%. Price-to-book is -2.7x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does IRWD compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 15.5 years, $100 invested in IRWD would have grown to $37, compared to $763 for the S&P 500. That's -6.2% annualized vs 14.0% for the index. IRWD has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19