IRDM
Iridium Communications Inc. Communication Services - Satellite Investor Relations → Deep dive →
Iridium Communications Inc. (IRDM) closed at $46.77 as of 2026-09-18, trading 33.8% above its 200-week moving average of $34.95. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 34.9% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 50, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.6x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.86 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 917 weeks of data, IRDM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 13 times. On average, these episodes lasted 28 weeks. Historically, investors who bought IRDM at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +4.5%.
With a market cap of $5.0 billion, IRDM is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 4.8%. Return on equity stands at 19.7%, a solid level. The stock trades at 10.5x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 16.7% over the past three years.
Over the past 17.7 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in IRDM would have grown to $535, compared to $1416 for the S&P 500. IRDM has returned 10.0% annualized vs 16.2% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 2 open-market purchases totaling $871,300.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: IRDM vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After IRDM Crosses Below the Line?
Across 13 historical episodes, buying IRDM when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +3.6% after 12 months (median -7.0%), compared to +15.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 46% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +16.0% vs +36.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment IRDM crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices IRDM would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where IRDM's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-22.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $37.64 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $47.66 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $64.95 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $101.96 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $236.94 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | $0.30 | $0.19 | -34.8% |
| 2026-04-23 | $0.28 | $0.20 | -26.9% |
| 2026-02-12 | $0.25 | $0.24 | -2.6% |
| 2025-10-23 | $0.25 | $0.35 | +41.1% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from IRDM's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
IRDM has crossed below its 200-week MA 13 times with an average 1-year return of +4.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2009 | Jun 2010 | 35 | 28.2% | +2.9% | +479.9% |
| Sep 2010 | Nov 2010 | 7 | 8.8% | -24.2% | +467.4% |
| Dec 2010 | Feb 2011 | 10 | 11.6% | -16.0% | +463.0% |
| Mar 2011 | Mar 2012 | 52 | 37.5% | +8.3% | +511.0% |
| Apr 2012 | Apr 2012 | 1 | 1.3% | -24.4% | +486.7% |
| May 2012 | Jun 2012 | 3 | 4.0% | -14.2% | +490.8% |
| Jul 2012 | Jul 2013 | 48 | 33.8% | -8.0% | +568.0% |
| Jul 2013 | May 2014 | 43 | 30.5% | +19.4% | +626.1% |
| Jul 2015 | Oct 2015 | 14 | 21.8% | +22.3% | +568.9% |
| Nov 2015 | Dec 2015 | 5 | 4.9% | +18.1% | +572.5% |
| Jan 2016 | Apr 2016 | 15 | 13.9% | +42.9% | +568.9% |
| Aug 2016 | Sep 2016 | 3 | 10.9% | +47.8% | +558.4% |
| Oct 2023 | Apr 2026 | 130 | 56.0% | -16.4% | +29.3% |
| Average | 28 | — | +4.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is IRDM below its 200-week moving average?
No. Iridium Communications Inc. (IRDM) is currently 33.8% above its 200-week moving average of $34.95. It would need to fall to $34.95 to cross below the line.
What is IRDM's 200-week moving average price?
Iridium Communications Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $34.95 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when IRDM drops below its 200-week moving average?
IRDM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 13 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +4.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 28 weeks on average.
Is IRDM a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about IRDM as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 50. Free cash flow yield is 4.8%. Return on equity is 19.7%. Price-to-book is 10.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does IRDM compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 17.7 years, $100 invested in IRDM would have grown to $535, compared to $1416 for the S&P 500. That's 10.0% annualized vs 16.2% for the index. IRDM has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does IRDM pay a dividend?
Yes. Iridium Communications Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 128.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18