IRDM
Iridium Communications Inc. Communication Services - Satellite Investor Relations →
Iridium Communications Inc. (IRDM) closed at $44.57 as of 2026-06-19, trading 28.1% above its 200-week moving average of $34.80. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 35.6% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 75, IRDM is in overbought territory.
Over the past 14 weeks, down-weeks have had more trading volume than up-weeks (0.69 buyers-vs-sellers ratio). That means when people are active, they're more often selling than buying. Sellers are still more in control than buyers.
Over the past 904 weeks of data, IRDM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 13 times. On average, these episodes lasted 28 weeks. Historically, investors who bought IRDM at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +4.5%.
With a market cap of $4.7 billion, IRDM is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 5.4%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 21.4%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 10.1x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 16.7% over the past three years.
Over the past 17.4 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in IRDM would have grown to $508, compared to $1385 for the S&P 500. IRDM has returned 9.8% annualized vs 16.3% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 2 open-market purchases totaling $871,300.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: IRDM vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After IRDM Crosses Below the Line?
Across 13 historical episodes, buying IRDM when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +3.6% after 12 months (median -7.0%), compared to +15.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 46% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +16.0% vs +36.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment IRDM crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices IRDM would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where IRDM's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $31.27 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $38.32 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $49.48 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $69.82 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $118.53 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from IRDM's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
IRDM has crossed below its 200-week MA 13 times with an average 1-year return of +4.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2009 | Jun 2010 | 35 | 28.2% | +2.9% | +450.8% |
| Sep 2010 | Nov 2010 | 7 | 8.8% | -24.2% | +439.0% |
| Dec 2010 | Feb 2011 | 10 | 11.6% | -16.0% | +434.7% |
| Mar 2011 | Mar 2012 | 52 | 37.5% | +8.3% | +480.4% |
| Apr 2012 | Apr 2012 | 1 | 1.3% | -24.4% | +457.3% |
| May 2012 | Jun 2012 | 3 | 4.0% | -14.2% | +461.2% |
| Jul 2012 | Jul 2013 | 48 | 33.8% | -8.0% | +534.5% |
| Jul 2013 | May 2014 | 43 | 30.5% | +19.4% | +589.7% |
| Jul 2015 | Oct 2015 | 14 | 21.8% | +22.3% | +535.4% |
| Nov 2015 | Dec 2015 | 5 | 4.9% | +18.1% | +538.8% |
| Jan 2016 | Apr 2016 | 15 | 13.9% | +42.9% | +535.4% |
| Aug 2016 | Sep 2016 | 3 | 10.9% | +47.8% | +525.4% |
| Oct 2023 | Apr 2026 | 130 | 56.0% | -16.4% | +22.8% |
| Average | 28 | — | +4.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is IRDM below its 200-week moving average?
No. Iridium Communications Inc. (IRDM) is currently 28.1% above its 200-week moving average of $34.80. It would need to fall to $34.80 to cross below the line.
What is IRDM's 200-week moving average price?
Iridium Communications Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $34.80 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when IRDM drops below its 200-week moving average?
IRDM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 13 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +4.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 28 weeks on average.
Is IRDM a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about IRDM as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 75 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 5.4%. Return on equity is 21.4%. Price-to-book is 10.1x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does IRDM compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 17.4 years, $100 invested in IRDM would have grown to $508, compared to $1385 for the S&P 500. That's 9.8% annualized vs 16.3% for the index. IRDM has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19