INTC
Intel Corporation Technology - Semiconductors Investor Relations →
Intel Corporation (INTC) closed at $133.99 as of 2026-06-19, trading 283.6% above its 200-week moving average of $34.93. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 261.8% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 76, INTC is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.3x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.28 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2365 weeks of data, INTC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 29 times. On average, these episodes lasted 24 weeks. Historically, investors who bought INTC at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +2.6%.
With a market cap of $673.4 billion, INTC is a large-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at -2.9%. The stock trades at 6.0x book value.
Share count has increased 20.7% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in INTC would have grown to $7193, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 13.6% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming INTC as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: INTC vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After INTC Crosses Below the Line?
Across 19 historical episodes, buying INTC when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -4.9% after 12 months (median +4.0%), compared to +5.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 58% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +17.4% vs +13.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment INTC crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. INTC currently has negative free cash flow, so price-based dislocation levels are not available. The score still tracks yield deviation from baseline.
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from INTC's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
INTC has crossed below its 200-week MA 29 times with an average 1-year return of +2.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1981 | Apr 1981 | 7 | 13.1% | -27.1% | +65814.2% |
| Apr 1981 | Aug 1982 | 69 | 39.7% | -16.0% | +61419.8% |
| Sep 1982 | Oct 1982 | 1 | 2.1% | +150.0% | +69808.9% |
| Mar 1985 | Mar 1985 | 1 | 1.7% | +10.1% | +46506.0% |
| Jun 1985 | Jun 1985 | 3 | 7.1% | N/A | +44696.0% |
| Aug 1985 | Nov 1985 | 13 | 15.6% | -24.8% | +43842.8% |
| Jan 1986 | Jan 1986 | 1 | 1.5% | -10.0% | +41845.3% |
| Feb 1986 | Jan 1987 | 48 | 40.5% | +36.9% | +41467.5% |
| Nov 1988 | Dec 1988 | 5 | 11.3% | +71.6% | +37875.2% |
| Oct 1990 | Oct 1990 | 1 | 3.4% | +39.6% | +25533.3% |
| Dec 2000 | Jan 2001 | 5 | 9.4% | +2.8% | +626.2% |
| Feb 2001 | Oct 2003 | 142 | 62.2% | -2.7% | +603.2% |
| Nov 2003 | Dec 2003 | 6 | 4.3% | -24.8% | +621.7% |
| Jan 2004 | May 2004 | 17 | 11.5% | -26.7% | +664.3% |
| Jun 2004 | May 2005 | 44 | 22.4% | +0.6% | +783.4% |
| Oct 2005 | Oct 2005 | 4 | 3.4% | -11.7% | +863.7% |
| Jan 2006 | Jun 2007 | 73 | 25.2% | -2.3% | +951.3% |
| Jan 2008 | Apr 2008 | 14 | 14.7% | -33.9% | +899.7% |
| Jun 2008 | Jul 2008 | 3 | 5.0% | -21.6% | +910.8% |
| Sep 2008 | Aug 2009 | 51 | 39.2% | -1.4% | +947.4% |
| Sep 2009 | Oct 2009 | 1 | 0.9% | +5.0% | +999.2% |
| Nov 2009 | Nov 2009 | 1 | 0.6% | +15.6% | +1001.5% |
| Aug 2010 | Sep 2010 | 5 | 6.0% | +5.0% | +969.9% |
| Nov 2012 | Dec 2012 | 2 | 2.7% | +25.9% | +850.1% |
| Dec 2012 | Dec 2012 | 1 | 0.3% | +31.6% | +826.2% |
| Oct 2020 | Nov 2020 | 4 | 4.6% | +13.6% | +237.2% |
| Oct 2021 | Dec 2021 | 7 | 3.3% | -43.7% | +194.1% |
| Jan 2022 | Nov 2023 | 94 | 47.1% | -38.7% | +202.7% |
| Apr 2024 | Sep 2025 | 77 | 51.9% | -48.2% | +249.7% |
| Average | 24 | — | +2.6% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is INTC below its 200-week moving average?
No. Intel Corporation (INTC) is currently 283.6% above its 200-week moving average of $34.93. It would need to fall to $34.93 to cross below the line.
What is INTC's 200-week moving average price?
Intel Corporation's 200-week moving average is $34.93 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when INTC drops below its 200-week moving average?
INTC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 29 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +2.6%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 24 weeks on average.
Is INTC a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about INTC as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 76 (overbought). Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is -2.9%. Price-to-book is 6.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does INTC compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in INTC would have grown to $7193, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 13.6% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. INTC has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19