ICFI
ICF International, Inc. Industrials - Consulting Services Investor Relations →
ICF International, Inc. (ICFI) closed at $80.92 as of 2026-07-31, trading 27.0% below its 200-week moving average of $110.78. This places ICFI in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -28.3% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 63, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.6x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.82 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 987 weeks of data, ICFI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 14 times. On average, these episodes lasted 15 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ICFI at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +34.4%.
With a market cap of $1465 million, ICFI is a small-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 6.0%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 8.5%. The stock trades at 1.4x book value.
Management has been repurchasing shares, with a 3.4% reduction over three years. This stock also meets the Yartseva multibagger criteria as a small-cap with strong free cash flow yield and reasonable book value.
Over the past 18.9 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ICFI would have grown to $310, compared to $691 for the S&P 500. ICFI has returned 6.2% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -4.4% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: ICFI vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ICFI Crosses Below the Line?
Across 14 historical episodes, buying ICFI when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +26.9% after 12 months (median +39.0%), compared to +21.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 86% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +44.7% vs +31.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ICFI crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices ICFI would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where ICFI's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-06.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $56.66 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $61.16 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $66.43 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $72.70 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $80.27 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from ICFI's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
ICFI has crossed below its 200-week MA 14 times with an average 1-year return of +34.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2008 | Dec 2008 | 38 | 22.6% | +17.7% | +326.6% |
| May 2010 | Jun 2010 | 5 | 3.0% | +15.4% | +288.4% |
| Aug 2010 | Sep 2010 | 5 | 2.9% | -5.8% | +281.6% |
| Feb 2011 | Apr 2011 | 9 | 11.2% | +16.1% | +263.3% |
| Jul 2011 | Oct 2011 | 13 | 20.1% | +6.9% | +265.6% |
| Apr 2012 | Jul 2012 | 10 | 8.0% | +22.9% | +284.9% |
| Jul 2012 | Feb 2013 | 28 | 25.5% | +59.3% | +288.9% |
| Sep 2015 | Nov 2015 | 5 | 3.9% | +47.0% | +183.3% |
| Mar 2020 | Mar 2020 | 1 | 7.6% | +55.3% | +45.6% |
| May 2020 | May 2020 | 2 | 9.2% | +63.5% | +45.8% |
| Jun 2020 | Jul 2020 | 7 | 5.9% | +52.4% | +34.2% |
| Sep 2020 | Oct 2020 | 2 | 3.8% | +42.3% | +33.3% |
| Oct 2020 | Nov 2020 | 1 | 0.2% | +54.7% | +27.8% |
| Feb 2025 | Ongoing | 78+ | 45.7% | Ongoing | -29.7% |
| Average | 15 | — | +34.4% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ICFI below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-07-31, ICF International, Inc. (ICFI) is trading 27.0% below its 200-week moving average of $110.78. The current price is $80.92.
What is ICFI's 200-week moving average price?
ICF International, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $110.78 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when ICFI drops below its 200-week moving average?
ICFI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 14 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +34.4%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 15 weeks on average.
Is ICFI a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about ICFI as of 2026-07-31: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 63. Free cash flow yield is 6.0%. Return on equity is 8.5%. Price-to-book is 1.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does ICFI compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 18.9 years, $100 invested in ICFI would have grown to $310, compared to $691 for the S&P 500. That's 6.2% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. ICFI has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does ICFI pay a dividend?
Yes. ICF International, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 69.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31