ICE
Intercontinental Exchange Inc. Financial Services - Exchanges Investor Relations →
Intercontinental Exchange Inc. (ICE) closed at $155.47 as of 2026-09-18, trading 11.6% above its 200-week moving average of $139.26. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 12.9% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 62, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.9x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.97 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1039 weeks of data, ICE has crossed below its 200-week moving average 16 times. On average, these episodes lasted 8 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ICE at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +18.8%.
With a market cap of $87.3 billion, ICE is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 4.2%. Return on equity stands at 14.1%. The stock trades at 3.0x book value.
Over the past 20 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ICE would have grown to $1122, compared to $797 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 12.9% vs 10.9% for the index — confirming ICE as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 8% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: ICE vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ICE Crosses Below the Line?
Across 16 historical episodes, buying ICE when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +17.8% after 12 months (median +20.0%), compared to +16.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 100% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +36.3% vs +35.7% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ICE crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices ICE would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where ICE's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-29.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $108.03 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $119.70 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $134.20 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $152.70 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $177.11 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | $1.84 | $1.90 | +3.4% |
| 2026-04-30 | $2.26 | $2.35 | +3.9% |
| 2026-02-05 | $1.67 | $1.71 | +2.2% |
| 2025-10-30 | $1.61 | $1.71 | +6.4% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from ICE's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
ICE has crossed below its 200-week MA 16 times with an average 1-year return of +18.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2008 | May 2009 | 47 | 46.5% | +3.0% | +765.4% |
| Jul 2009 | Nov 2009 | 17 | 18.1% | +25.9% | +983.1% |
| Nov 2009 | Dec 2009 | 4 | 1.4% | +7.9% | +775.2% |
| Jan 2010 | Mar 2010 | 7 | 11.9% | +8.6% | +757.1% |
| Mar 2010 | Mar 2010 | 1 | 1.4% | +15.4% | +748.6% |
| Apr 2010 | Apr 2010 | 2 | 3.1% | +12.6% | +757.0% |
| Jun 2010 | Nov 2010 | 22 | 16.0% | +19.5% | +763.6% |
| Jan 2011 | Jan 2011 | 1 | 0.1% | +0.9% | +704.6% |
| Aug 2011 | Aug 2011 | 3 | 5.0% | +20.1% | +732.8% |
| May 2022 | May 2022 | 1 | 0.7% | +12.4% | +69.2% |
| Jun 2022 | Jul 2022 | 6 | 8.3% | +14.2% | +68.9% |
| Sep 2022 | Nov 2022 | 8 | 10.1% | +20.8% | +68.5% |
| Dec 2022 | Dec 2022 | 1 | 0.5% | +24.1% | +62.1% |
| Feb 2023 | Mar 2023 | 5 | 7.5% | +37.1% | +59.3% |
| Oct 2023 | Oct 2023 | 1 | 1.1% | +59.9% | +54.1% |
| Jun 2026 | Jul 2026 | 4 | 9.1% | N/A | +16.5% |
| Average | 8 | — | +18.8% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ICE below its 200-week moving average?
No. Intercontinental Exchange Inc. (ICE) is currently 11.6% above its 200-week moving average of $139.26. It would need to fall to $139.26 to cross below the line.
What is ICE's 200-week moving average price?
Intercontinental Exchange Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $139.26 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when ICE drops below its 200-week moving average?
ICE has crossed below its 200-week moving average 16 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +18.8%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 8 weeks on average.
Is ICE a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about ICE as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 62. Free cash flow yield is 4.2%. Return on equity is 14.1%. Price-to-book is 3.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does ICE compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 20 years, $100 invested in ICE would have grown to $1122, compared to $797 for the S&P 500. That's 12.9% annualized vs 10.9% for the index. ICE has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does ICE pay a dividend?
Yes. Intercontinental Exchange Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 134.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18