IBM
International Business Machines Corporation Technology - IT Services Investor Relations →
International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) closed at $298.93 as of 2026-02-02, trading 64.7% above its 200-week moving average of $181.54. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 69.8% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 46, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 3296 weeks of data, IBM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 43 times. On average, these episodes lasted 24 weeks. Historically, investors who bought IBM at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +7.1%.
With a market cap of $279.4 billion, IBM is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 4.6%. Return on equity stands at 35.2%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 8.6x book value.
IBM is a Dividend Aristocrat, having increased its dividend for 25 or more consecutive years. The current yield is 225.00%. Share count has increased 3.1% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 33.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in IBM would have grown to $5138, compared to $2849 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 12.6% vs 10.6% for the index — confirming IBM as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Growth of $100: IBM vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After IBM Crosses Below the Line?
Across 25 historical episodes, buying IBM when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +2.9% after 12 months (median +2.0%), compared to +9.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 52% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +16.2% vs +27.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment IBM crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
IBM has crossed below its 200-week MA 43 times with an average 1-year return of +7.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1962 | Apr 1963 | 16 | 11.1% | +22.1% | +29871.6% |
| Jul 1963 | Aug 1963 | 4 | 1.0% | +39.9% | +26942.0% |
| Oct 1966 | Oct 1966 | 1 | 1.2% | +94.3% | +21088.5% |
| May 1970 | Sep 1970 | 20 | 20.7% | +26.0% | +11079.1% |
| Oct 1970 | Nov 1970 | 5 | 1.3% | +7.9% | +10260.8% |
| Jul 1971 | Nov 1971 | 20 | 8.4% | +35.7% | +10010.2% |
| Sep 1973 | Oct 1973 | 3 | 5.5% | -32.6% | +8763.3% |
| Nov 1973 | Jan 1976 | 112 | 43.4% | -31.4% | +8560.9% |
| Oct 1979 | Nov 1979 | 6 | 2.4% | +16.1% | +7466.1% |
| Mar 1980 | Jul 1980 | 18 | 18.1% | +7.2% | +7376.0% |
| Feb 1981 | Feb 1981 | 1 | 0.1% | +9.5% | +7033.2% |
| Apr 1981 | Jan 1982 | 40 | 14.2% | +8.8% | +7003.9% |
| Mar 1982 | Mar 1982 | 2 | 0.8% | +82.2% | +6922.7% |
| Oct 1987 | Jun 1988 | 36 | 15.0% | +7.0% | +2681.7% |
| Jul 1988 | Jan 1989 | 27 | 10.3% | -1.4% | +2616.1% |
| Feb 1989 | May 1990 | 63 | 20.1% | -11.3% | +2523.6% |
| Jul 1990 | Nov 1990 | 16 | 9.9% | -5.7% | +2594.5% |
| Jan 1991 | Jan 1991 | 1 | 1.7% | -12.0% | +2613.7% |
| Apr 1991 | Sep 1991 | 20 | 7.5% | -13.8% | +2606.6% |
| Sep 1991 | Oct 1994 | 158 | 49.2% | -15.3% | +2675.5% |
| Sep 2001 | Oct 2001 | 2 | 3.5% | -28.9% | +561.8% |
| Feb 2002 | Feb 2002 | 1 | 1.7% | -18.1% | +506.8% |
| Apr 2002 | Jan 2004 | 93 | 44.7% | -16.3% | +514.3% |
| Mar 2004 | Nov 2004 | 34 | 8.6% | -1.1% | +530.7% |
| Mar 2005 | Mar 2005 | 1 | 0.0% | -5.8% | +553.8% |
| Apr 2005 | Nov 2005 | 31 | 16.8% | -4.9% | +566.4% |
| Dec 2005 | Mar 2006 | 13 | 3.8% | +15.8% | +595.0% |
| Mar 2006 | Oct 2006 | 28 | 11.7% | +15.9% | +600.8% |
| Oct 2008 | Feb 2009 | 17 | 19.7% | +46.5% | +535.0% |
| Feb 2009 | Mar 2009 | 5 | 7.8% | +46.0% | +520.7% |
| Oct 2014 | Nov 2016 | 107 | 28.9% | -8.1% | +206.7% |
| May 2017 | Oct 2017 | 24 | 8.1% | -3.4% | +194.7% |
| Nov 2017 | Nov 2017 | 2 | 1.4% | -13.7% | +200.2% |
| Apr 2018 | Jun 2018 | 7 | 2.3% | +1.4% | +203.0% |
| Jun 2018 | Jul 2018 | 3 | 3.5% | +3.2% | +207.3% |
| Oct 2018 | Feb 2019 | 19 | 20.9% | +6.3% | +205.0% |
| Mar 2019 | Mar 2019 | 1 | 2.1% | -1.0% | +210.4% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 6 | 6.6% | -4.9% | +209.8% |
| Aug 2019 | Aug 2019 | 3 | 4.2% | -3.8% | +204.4% |
| Oct 2019 | Jan 2020 | 12 | 1.6% | -1.4% | +205.4% |
| Feb 2020 | Jan 2021 | 45 | 29.3% | -3.6% | +207.8% |
| Jan 2021 | Mar 2021 | 7 | 5.9% | +19.8% | +224.2% |
| Nov 2021 | Nov 2021 | 2 | 0.4% | +33.5% | +201.6% |
| Average | 24 | — | +7.1% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02