IBCP
Independent Bank Corporation Financial Services - Banks - Regional Investor Relations →
Independent Bank Corporation (IBCP) closed at $34.31 as of 2026-06-19, trading 32.0% above its 200-week moving average of $25.99. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 36.9% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 56, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.2x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.75 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2080 weeks of data, IBCP has crossed below its 200-week moving average 18 times. On average, these episodes lasted 31 weeks. Historically, investors who bought IBCP at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +8.9%.
With a market cap of $707 million, IBCP is a small-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 14.3%. The stock trades at 1.4x book value.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in IBCP would have grown to $250, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. IBCP has returned 2.8% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -7.6% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: IBCP vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After IBCP Crosses Below the Line?
Across 12 historical episodes, buying IBCP when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +8.4% after 12 months (median +7.0%), compared to +16.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 50% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +36.0% vs +16.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment IBCP crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices IBCP would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where IBCP's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-23.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $30.77 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $33.33 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $36.35 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $39.98 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $44.41 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from IBCP's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
IBCP has crossed below its 200-week MA 18 times with an average 1-year return of +8.9% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1986 | Aug 1986 | 2 | 1.6% | -2.3% | +619.5% |
| Nov 1986 | Mar 1987 | 19 | 11.1% | -18.3% | +619.5% |
| Jun 1987 | Sep 1988 | 67 | 24.0% | -6.4% | +623.9% |
| Apr 1990 | May 1990 | 4 | 3.5% | +18.5% | +618.5% |
| Jul 1990 | Aug 1990 | 2 | 2.2% | +31.5% | +632.4% |
| Aug 1990 | Jan 1991 | 23 | 20.9% | +54.8% | +632.4% |
| Mar 1999 | Apr 1999 | 2 | 7.8% | -7.5% | +3.8% |
| Aug 1999 | Nov 1999 | 11 | 13.5% | +6.6% | -6.5% |
| Dec 1999 | Sep 2000 | 40 | 33.0% | +22.3% | -6.5% |
| Nov 2006 | Dec 2006 | 1 | 0.7% | -56.9% | -75.7% |
| Jan 2007 | Feb 2013 | 315 | 97.9% | -35.9% | -75.1% |
| Aug 2019 | Sep 2019 | 3 | 1.4% | -22.4% | +131.2% |
| Feb 2020 | Jan 2021 | 45 | 43.5% | +11.2% | +125.0% |
| Jan 2021 | Feb 2021 | 1 | 4.4% | +37.5% | +130.3% |
| May 2022 | May 2022 | 1 | 0.7% | -8.4% | +111.6% |
| Jun 2022 | Jun 2022 | 2 | 3.3% | +5.4% | +117.5% |
| Mar 2023 | Jul 2023 | 18 | 15.8% | +36.6% | +110.4% |
| Sep 2023 | Oct 2023 | 5 | 3.5% | +94.8% | +108.5% |
| Average | 31 | — | +8.9% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is IBCP below its 200-week moving average?
No. Independent Bank Corporation (IBCP) is currently 32.0% above its 200-week moving average of $25.99. It would need to fall to $25.99 to cross below the line.
What is IBCP's 200-week moving average price?
Independent Bank Corporation's 200-week moving average is $25.99 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when IBCP drops below its 200-week moving average?
IBCP has crossed below its 200-week moving average 18 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +8.9%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 31 weeks on average.
Is IBCP a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about IBCP as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 56. Return on equity is 14.3%. Price-to-book is 1.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does IBCP compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in IBCP would have grown to $250, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 2.8% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. IBCP has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19