IBCP
Independent Bank Corporation Financial Services - Banks - Regional Investor Relations →
Independent Bank Corporation (IBCP) closed at $38.20 as of 2026-07-31, trading 43.7% above its 200-week moving average of $26.59. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 42.2% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 72, IBCP is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.23 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2086 weeks of data, IBCP has crossed below its 200-week moving average 18 times. On average, these episodes lasted 31 weeks. Historically, investors who bought IBCP at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +4.5%.
With a market cap of $787 million, IBCP is a small-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 14.4%. The stock trades at 1.5x book value.
Over the past 33.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in IBCP would have grown to $279, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. IBCP has returned 3.1% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -7.6% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: IBCP vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After IBCP Crosses Below the Line?
Across 12 historical episodes, buying IBCP when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -0.2% after 12 months (median -5.0%), compared to +18.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 42% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +19.0% vs +15.6% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment IBCP crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices IBCP would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where IBCP's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $30.98 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $33.41 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $36.25 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $39.62 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $43.67 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from IBCP's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
IBCP has crossed below its 200-week MA 18 times with an average 1-year return of +4.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1986 | Aug 1986 | 2 | 1.6% | -2.3% | +701.1% |
| Nov 1986 | Mar 1987 | 19 | 11.1% | -18.3% | +701.1% |
| Jun 1987 | Sep 1988 | 67 | 24.1% | -6.4% | +706.0% |
| Apr 1990 | May 1990 | 4 | 3.6% | +18.5% | +700.0% |
| Jul 1990 | Aug 1990 | 2 | 2.3% | +31.5% | +715.4% |
| Aug 1990 | Jan 1991 | 23 | 21.0% | +54.8% | +715.4% |
| Mar 1999 | Apr 1999 | 2 | 7.0% | -8.3% | +14.6% |
| Aug 1999 | Sep 2000 | 54 | 33.0% | +6.6% | +4.1% |
| Oct 2006 | Nov 2006 | 1 | 0.0% | -56.1% | -73.0% |
| Nov 2006 | Dec 2006 | 1 | 0.8% | -56.9% | -73.0% |
| Jan 2007 | Feb 2013 | 315 | 97.9% | -35.9% | -72.3% |
| Aug 2019 | Sep 2019 | 3 | 1.5% | -22.4% | +157.5% |
| Feb 2020 | Jan 2021 | 45 | 43.5% | +11.2% | +150.5% |
| Jan 2021 | Feb 2021 | 1 | 4.4% | +37.5% | +156.4% |
| May 2022 | May 2022 | 1 | 0.8% | -8.4% | +135.6% |
| Jun 2022 | Jun 2022 | 2 | 3.3% | +5.4% | +142.2% |
| Mar 2023 | Jul 2023 | 18 | 15.9% | +36.6% | +134.3% |
| Sep 2023 | Oct 2023 | 5 | 3.6% | +94.8% | +132.2% |
| Average | 31 | — | +4.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is IBCP below its 200-week moving average?
No. Independent Bank Corporation (IBCP) is currently 43.7% above its 200-week moving average of $26.59. It would need to fall to $26.59 to cross below the line.
What is IBCP's 200-week moving average price?
Independent Bank Corporation's 200-week moving average is $26.59 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when IBCP drops below its 200-week moving average?
IBCP has crossed below its 200-week moving average 18 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +4.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 31 weeks on average.
Is IBCP a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about IBCP as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 72 (overbought). Return on equity is 14.4%. Price-to-book is 1.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does IBCP compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.6 years, $100 invested in IBCP would have grown to $279, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. That's 3.1% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. IBCP has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does IBCP pay a dividend?
Yes. Independent Bank Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 293.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31