HZO
MarineMax, Inc. Consumer Cyclical - Specialty Retail Investor Relations →
MarineMax, Inc. (HZO) closed at $34.95 as of 2026-06-19, trading 18.1% above its 200-week moving average of $29.59. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 14.8% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 75, HZO is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.0x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.99 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1415 weeks of data, HZO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 35 times. On average, these episodes lasted 19 weeks. Historically, investors who bought HZO at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +26.9%.
With a market cap of $770 million, HZO is a small-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 16.4%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at -6.5%. The stock trades at 0.8x book value.
This stock also meets the Yartseva multibagger criteria as a small-cap with strong free cash flow yield and reasonable book value.
Over the past 27.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in HZO would have grown to $304, compared to $923 for the S&P 500. HZO has returned 4.2% annualized vs 8.5% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: HZO vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After HZO Crosses Below the Line?
Across 35 historical episodes, buying HZO when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +24.0% after 12 months (median +10.0%), compared to +16.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 57% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +49.7% vs +31.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment HZO crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices HZO would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where HZO's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-23.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $27.54 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $29.58 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $31.96 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $34.76 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $38.09 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from HZO's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
HZO has crossed below its 200-week MA 35 times with an average 1-year return of +26.9% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1999 | Jan 2000 | 22 | 16.2% | -17.3% | +272.8% |
| Feb 2000 | Jun 2001 | 68 | 46.0% | -14.8% | +265.5% |
| Jun 2001 | Jan 2002 | 28 | 28.6% | +44.0% | +288.8% |
| Sep 2002 | Oct 2002 | 4 | 20.4% | +55.5% | +273.8% |
| Feb 2003 | Feb 2003 | 1 | 1.8% | +141.8% | +270.6% |
| Mar 2003 | Mar 2003 | 3 | 5.2% | +171.7% | +270.2% |
| Jul 2006 | Sep 2006 | 9 | 11.8% | -6.9% | +59.0% |
| Jan 2007 | Mar 2011 | 219 | 93.7% | -41.9% | +53.0% |
| May 2011 | Jun 2011 | 5 | 7.6% | +10.4% | +309.7% |
| Aug 2011 | Jan 2012 | 23 | 26.2% | -3.9% | +352.1% |
| Aug 2012 | Sep 2012 | 1 | 0.7% | +69.8% | +384.7% |
| Oct 2012 | Oct 2012 | 1 | 2.1% | +102.9% | +378.8% |
| Nov 2012 | Nov 2012 | 2 | 2.1% | +127.6% | +372.9% |
| Sep 2015 | Sep 2015 | 1 | 0.2% | +47.5% | +144.7% |
| Jan 2016 | Jan 2016 | 1 | 1.5% | +26.2% | +135.8% |
| Jun 2016 | Jun 2016 | 1 | 1.5% | +15.2% | +121.9% |
| Oct 2016 | Nov 2016 | 2 | 8.9% | +30.4% | +124.0% |
| May 2017 | May 2017 | 1 | 1.2% | +29.4% | +93.6% |
| Jun 2017 | Jun 2017 | 1 | 1.2% | +32.0% | +92.6% |
| Jul 2017 | Oct 2017 | 15 | 21.0% | +43.3% | +138.6% |
| Jan 2018 | Jan 2018 | 1 | 1.5% | +4.0% | +87.9% |
| Apr 2018 | Apr 2018 | 3 | 7.6% | +5.9% | +88.9% |
| Jun 2018 | Jul 2018 | 1 | 2.9% | -13.2% | +84.4% |
| Jul 2018 | Aug 2018 | 3 | 3.3% | -18.5% | +84.9% |
| Oct 2018 | Oct 2018 | 1 | 4.2% | -7.3% | +85.2% |
| Dec 2018 | Jan 2019 | 4 | 14.2% | -14.4% | +79.1% |
| Jan 2019 | Apr 2019 | 10 | 7.6% | +18.9% | +89.9% |
| Apr 2019 | Jan 2020 | 39 | 26.3% | -16.3% | +111.4% |
| Feb 2020 | May 2020 | 13 | 57.6% | +163.7% | +106.4% |
| Sep 2022 | Nov 2022 | 8 | 12.7% | +5.5% | +14.8% |
| Nov 2022 | Jan 2023 | 7 | 5.8% | -7.9% | +7.3% |
| Jan 2023 | Feb 2023 | 3 | 8.1% | -8.1% | +14.6% |
| Mar 2023 | Jul 2023 | 18 | 21.0% | -2.9% | +12.6% |
| Aug 2023 | Dec 2023 | 17 | 24.0% | -7.3% | +5.0% |
| Jan 2024 | May 2026 | 122 | 47.5% | -22.1% | -3.2% |
| Average | 19 | — | +26.9% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HZO below its 200-week moving average?
No. MarineMax, Inc. (HZO) is currently 18.1% above its 200-week moving average of $29.59. It would need to fall to $29.59 to cross below the line.
What is HZO's 200-week moving average price?
MarineMax, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $29.59 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when HZO drops below its 200-week moving average?
HZO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 35 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +26.9%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 19 weeks on average.
Is HZO a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about HZO as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 75 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 16.4%. Return on equity is -6.5%. Price-to-book is 0.8x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does HZO compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 27.2 years, $100 invested in HZO would have grown to $304, compared to $923 for the S&P 500. That's 4.2% annualized vs 8.5% for the index. HZO has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19