HXL
Hexcel Corporation Industrials - Aerospace & Defense Investor Relations →
Hexcel Corporation (HXL) closed at $88.15 as of 2026-09-18, trading 27.6% above its 200-week moving average of $69.09. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 34.5% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 39, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.5x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.74 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2378 weeks of data, HXL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 23 times. On average, these episodes lasted 43 weeks. Historically, investors who bought HXL at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +5.5%.
With a market cap of $6.7 billion, HXL is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.8%. Return on equity stands at 10.8%. The stock trades at 5.1x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 10.1% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in HXL would have grown to $1069, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. HXL has returned 7.3% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 17.5% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: HXL vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After HXL Crosses Below the Line?
Across 17 historical episodes, buying HXL when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +25.2% after 12 months (median +25.0%), compared to +10.9% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 82% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +42.3% vs +26.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment HXL crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices HXL would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where HXL's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-21.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $88.96 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $97.00 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $106.64 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $118.40 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $133.08 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | $0.58 | $0.66 | +14.3% |
| 2026-04-22 | $0.44 | $0.59 | +35.6% |
| 2026-01-28 | $0.49 | $0.52 | +5.2% |
| 2025-10-22 | $0.38 | $0.37 | -2.3% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from HXL's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
HXL has crossed below its 200-week MA 23 times with an average 1-year return of +5.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1981 | Mar 1981 | 2 | 0.9% | -54.6% | +378.3% |
| Jun 1981 | Jul 1981 | 2 | 1.8% | -62.9% | +371.6% |
| Jul 1981 | Jul 1984 | 158 | 59.1% | -53.1% | +418.7% |
| Nov 1987 | Dec 1987 | 4 | 6.0% | +55.0% | +407.7% |
| Jul 1989 | Jul 1989 | 2 | 0.7% | -46.7% | +285.9% |
| Aug 1989 | Jul 1995 | 306 | 77.3% | -62.7% | +286.1% |
| Jul 1998 | Sep 2003 | 270 | 81.1% | -40.1% | +577.9% |
| Nov 2003 | Nov 2003 | 2 | 4.3% | +195.8% | +1503.0% |
| Jun 2008 | Aug 2008 | 5 | 6.3% | -48.7% | +443.7% |
| Sep 2008 | May 2010 | 90 | 73.9% | -43.2% | +404.9% |
| Jun 2010 | Jul 2010 | 3 | 5.1% | +47.1% | +533.6% |
| Nov 2010 | Nov 2010 | 1 | 3.0% | +54.8% | +513.8% |
| Mar 2020 | May 2021 | 64 | 54.4% | +17.1% | +81.0% |
| Jul 2021 | Sep 2021 | 11 | 10.2% | -4.3% | +62.4% |
| Oct 2021 | Nov 2021 | 2 | 6.2% | -0.7% | +58.7% |
| Nov 2021 | Mar 2022 | 18 | 19.5% | -0.3% | +54.9% |
| Apr 2022 | Jul 2022 | 16 | 15.9% | +21.1% | +67.8% |
| Aug 2022 | Nov 2022 | 10 | 10.7% | +28.8% | +57.9% |
| Dec 2022 | Dec 2022 | 1 | 1.2% | +28.3% | +60.1% |
| Sep 2024 | Sep 2024 | 1 | 2.2% | +10.6% | +51.5% |
| Sep 2024 | Oct 2024 | 2 | 1.0% | +8.6% | +49.2% |
| Oct 2024 | Nov 2024 | 3 | 3.5% | +22.4% | +52.4% |
| Mar 2025 | Aug 2025 | 23 | 22.1% | +53.8% | +53.7% |
| Average | 43 | — | +5.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HXL below its 200-week moving average?
No. Hexcel Corporation (HXL) is currently 27.6% above its 200-week moving average of $69.09. It would need to fall to $69.09 to cross below the line.
What is HXL's 200-week moving average price?
Hexcel Corporation's 200-week moving average is $69.09 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when HXL drops below its 200-week moving average?
HXL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 23 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +5.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 43 weeks on average.
Is HXL a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about HXL as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 39. Free cash flow yield is 3.8%. Return on equity is 10.8%. Price-to-book is 5.1x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does HXL compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in HXL would have grown to $1069, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That's 7.3% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. HXL has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does HXL pay a dividend?
Yes. Hexcel Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 82.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18