HWM
Howmet Aerospace Inc. Industrials - Aerospace & Defense Investor Relations →
Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM) closed at $277.66 as of 2026-06-19, trading 151.4% above its 200-week moving average of $110.45. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 142.3% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 66, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.2x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.04 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 454 weeks of data, HWM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 6 times. On average, these episodes lasted 17 weeks. Historically, investors who bought HWM at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +29.8%.
With a market cap of $111.1 billion, HWM is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 1.1%. Return on equity stands at 33.8%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 20.2x book value.
Over the past 8.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in HWM would have grown to $1479, compared to $332 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 36.1% vs 14.7% for the index — confirming HWM as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 38.4% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: HWM vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After HWM Crosses Below the Line?
Across 6 historical episodes, buying HWM when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +41.5% after 12 months (median +72.0%), compared to +24.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 50% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +73.2% vs +26.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment HWM crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices HWM would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where HWM's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-06.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $229.02 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $240.91 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $254.11 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $268.83 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $285.36 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from HWM's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
HWM has crossed below its 200-week MA 6 times with an average 1-year return of +29.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2017 | Dec 2017 | 7 | 3.0% | -18.5% | +1422.9% |
| Feb 2018 | Feb 2018 | 1 | 1.5% | -30.0% | +1413.2% |
| Feb 2018 | Jun 2019 | 66 | 30.4% | -20.8% | +1460.7% |
| Mar 2020 | Aug 2020 | 24 | 43.8% | +100.5% | +1690.4% |
| Sep 2020 | Sep 2020 | 2 | 5.9% | +75.2% | +1491.8% |
| Oct 2020 | Nov 2020 | 1 | 3.1% | +72.2% | +1533.3% |
| Average | 17 | — | +29.8% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HWM below its 200-week moving average?
No. Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM) is currently 151.4% above its 200-week moving average of $110.45. It would need to fall to $110.45 to cross below the line.
What is HWM's 200-week moving average price?
Howmet Aerospace Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $110.45 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when HWM drops below its 200-week moving average?
HWM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 6 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +29.8%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 17 weeks on average.
Is HWM a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about HWM as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 66. Free cash flow yield is 1.1%. Return on equity is 33.8%. Price-to-book is 20.2x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does HWM compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 8.8 years, $100 invested in HWM would have grown to $1479, compared to $332 for the S&P 500. That's 36.1% annualized vs 14.7% for the index. HWM has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does HWM pay a dividend?
Yes. Howmet Aerospace Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 17.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19